Ornate-Buffalo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.4%

Resolved

Trades

492

lifetime

Volume

$56.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$116

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 05-21 05:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

57% 33% +$71

Politics

43% 0% $-13

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$7.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	04-28 12:58
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	125	$6.4K	7,416	7,599	-183	open	—	03-16 14:48
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22	19	$6.3K	6,297	6,297	+0	open	—	03-23 00:39
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	51	$5.7K	5,987	5,324	+663	open	—	03-27 13:52
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21	2	$3.5K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-21 14:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	15	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	$-13	05-04 19:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	14	$3.2K	1,914	1,914	+0	open	—	05-18 11:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	3	$3.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	$-69	05-02 22:56
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	5	$2.9K	3,340	1,931	+1,409	open	—	03-27 02:29
iran leadership change by march 31	6	$2.1K	1,073	1,495	-422	open	—	03-20 03:43
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	43	$1.5K	1,467	1,448	+19	open	—	03-23 11:11
cbb akron txtech 2026 03 20	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 13:07
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	14	$1.2K	1,144	1,144	+0	open	—	03-18 13:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	19	$1.0K	1,671	1,671	+0	open	—	03-23 06:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	11	$906	942	942	+0	open	—	03-23 06:11
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	4	$681	600	599	+1	open	—	03-21 10:35
will pierre yves bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	16	$647	1,343	489	+854	open	—	03-16 16:16
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	9	$616	516	516	+0	open	—	03-16 02:03
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	7	$527	529	374	+154	open	—	03-16 13:19
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	9	$515	746	105	+641	Yes	+$140	05-13 14:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	15	$514	637	850	-213	open	—	04-14 06:07
will the us invade iran by march 31	12	$368	635	635	+0	open	—	03-14 18:10
cbb txam hou 2026 03 21	2	$360	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 23:45
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	5	$292	585	585	+0	open	—	03-15 17:41
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of May 11 2026?	3	$234	300	0	+300	open	—	05-14 15:49
will clavicular be the top ranked chad by march 31	3	$185	400	400	+0	open	—	03-13 06:13
will the 2026 mens ncaa basketball national champion come from the acc atlantic coast conference	5	$177	288	488	-200	open	—	03-19 14:42
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$171	146	146	+0	open	—	03-23 05:24
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14?	2	$169	200	0	+200	open	—	05-14 12:12
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	3	$121	302	302	+0	open	—	03-17 19:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 05:10:44	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0x346256…
05-18 17:17:01	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x64db81…
05-18 11:10:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,512	85¢	$1,285	0xb19f00…
05-18 11:10:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	260	85¢	$221	0x8a1b5d…
05-18 10:37:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x7c0d99…
05-18 10:33:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	97	85¢	$82	0x7c8b8f…
05-18 10:16:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	43	85¢	$37	0x3c77dc…
05-16 11:39:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xee7884…
05-16 11:19:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x018c5f…
05-16 10:57:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0xa05494…
05-16 10:24:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	47	83¢	$39	0x475168…
05-16 10:24:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	613	82¢	$503	0x367cda…
05-16 10:18:14	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x503138…
05-16 10:17:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	400	79¢	$316	0x8ac6ee…
05-16 10:17:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	300	79¢	$237	0x626a71…
05-16 10:15:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	400	79¢	$316	0xcd74b2…
05-16 10:07:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x3fd691…
05-14 15:49:01	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xad3f06…
05-14 14:58:16	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	No	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x7f0024…
05-14 14:45:50	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	49	74¢	$36	0x8cb85f…
05-14 13:32:26	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $187.50 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0x8c4f06…
05-14 13:30:34	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $185 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x0d500e…
05-14 13:30:07	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0xbaf92c…
05-14 13:30:07	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $192.50 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x6d4f4e…
05-14 12:39:24	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $190 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x9a21e5…
05-14 12:12:45	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xd54f05…
05-14 06:45:59	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x9a832c…
05-13 14:11:54	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0xd9821c…
05-13 13:28:13	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0xb53532…
05-13 12:38:22	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xefcfd3…
05-13 09:12:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	No	SELL	105	7¢	$7	0x5d4c8d…
05-13 09:12:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x5d4c8d…
05-13 08:32:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xa19b5c…
05-13 07:51:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	No	BUY	92	14¢	$13	0x280903…
05-13 07:49:47	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xccdc58…
05-13 07:49:37	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 13?	No	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x66b88e…
05-13 05:56:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x42c779…
05-13 05:51:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x03ee03…
05-13 05:51:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x03ee03…
05-13 05:45:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0xd846b0…
05-13 05:32:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x41ccaa…
05-11 13:05:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0xc54bf7…
05-11 13:04:38	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 11?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xaf546b…
05-04 19:21:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,647	86¢	$1,417	0x7b7081…
05-04 19:20:54	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	9	88¢	$8	0x90927f…
05-04 19:20:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x4067a3…
05-04 19:20:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x692acc…
05-04 19:20:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xf10ef8…
05-04 19:20:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0x7977b0…
05-04 19:20:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x5ca92b…
05-04 19:20:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0xcbee12…
05-04 19:20:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	88¢	$51	0x64a39a…
05-04 19:20:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x623701…
05-04 19:20:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0x5dbe16…
05-04 19:20:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	132	88¢	$116	0x9d9e0d…
05-04 19:20:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x461407…
05-04 19:20:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	88¢	$3	0x40c314…
05-04 19:20:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	87¢	$1,740	0x5ed1cf…
05-02 22:56:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,997	74¢	$1,469	0x3acbb1…
05-02 22:55:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0x317547…
05-02 22:55:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	2,000	77¢	$1,540	0x491d01…
04-28 12:58:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,924	0xd2a85e…
04-28 12:57:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,926	0x687bd2…
04-28 12:50:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,926	0x103fe1…
04-28 12:49:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,926	0x5f5f11…
04-14 17:02:34	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	75¢	$13	0xb1e155…
04-14 16:57:30	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	35	23¢	$8	0x84439f…
04-14 16:47:44	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	44	23¢	$10	0xc193f2…
04-14 16:47:28	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	35	23¢	$8	0x1cba5e…
04-14 16:47:24	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x936005…
04-14 16:47:04	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0xbdce57…
04-14 16:45:18	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	SELL	29	23¢	$7	0xf03ad2…
04-14 16:25:45	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	No	BUY	161	23¢	$37	0xb9f065…
04-14 16:25:21	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	75¢	$13	0xc6f26e…
04-14 10:22:47	googl up or down on april 14 2026	Down	SELL	88	24¢	$21	0xd28192…
04-14 10:11:29	googl up or down on april 14 2026	Down	BUY	88	27¢	$24	0x9e0fa5…
04-14 08:51:57	Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	26¢	$7	0xa0728f…
04-14 08:08:59	Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	58	43¢	$25	0x9e22f7…
04-14 08:08:55	Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	43¢	$36	0x63fae0…
04-14 06:07:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	502	23¢	$114	0x86e905…
04-14 06:07:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x401f08…
04-14 06:06:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	80	23¢	$18	0x820c86…
04-14 06:06:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x0228e9…
04-14 06:06:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x7e1910…
04-14 06:06:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$1	0x6370ec…
04-14 06:06:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x7e0eba…
04-14 06:06:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$1	0x7da9a8…
04-14 06:06:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$1	0x75e9bc…
04-14 06:06:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$1	0x1554b1…
04-14 06:06:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$1	0x2789fb…
04-14 06:06:11	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	488	23¢	$112	0x6056a1…
04-13 17:40:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$1	0x8c8bf5…
04-13 17:40:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0x6d6f5f…
04-13 17:14:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	198	72¢	$142	0x57e32f…
04-13 17:13:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x810cbc…
04-13 17:13:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	149	75¢	$112	0xc41eb6…
04-13 00:37:47	Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	No	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x4e1f6f…
04-12 17:32:25	Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	Yes	SELL	12	91¢	$10	0xd72fea…
04-12 16:46:51	Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	Yes	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0x421313…
04-12 16:46:47	Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	Yes	BUY	41	92¢	$37	0xab19cf…