Thorny-Senate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 05-09 19:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

60% — —

Politics

29% 0% $-10

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$295	528	528	+0	open	—	04-15 08:17
sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	2	$235	145	145	+0	open	—	03-15 18:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$100	11,663	0	+11,663	open	—	05-09 19:20
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-12 19:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$100	333	0	+333	open	—	03-27 12:14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$100	1,525	0	+1,525	open	—	03-12 19:14
btc updown 5m 1773257100	3	$21	111	0	+111	open	—	03-11 19:29
will sp 500 spx close at 6900 7000 in march	1	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	03-18 07:27
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$20	208	208	+0	No	$-0	03-17 09:27
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	2	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	03-15 20:03
btc updown 5m 1773261600	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	03-11 20:43
btc updown 5m 1773263700	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	03-11 20:48
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	1	$15	35	0	+35	open	—	03-11 20:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	$-10	05-09 19:27
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$10	1,667	0	+1,667	open	—	03-12 18:22
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	03-12 18:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	03-12 18:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1	$10	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	03-12 18:23
will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	1	$10	291	0	+291	open	—	03-12 18:29
bitcoin above 68k on march 22	1	$10	46	0	+46	open	—	03-15 18:39
spx opens up or down on march 17 2026	1	$10	32	0	+32	open	—	03-17 09:23
bitcoin above 62k on march 22	1	$10	189	0	+189	open	—	03-15 18:38
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$10	84	0	+84	open	—	03-16 06:14
btc updown 5m 1773257400	1	$1	100	0	+100	open	—	03-11 19:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 19:27:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x35f9a2…
05-09 19:20:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	11,663	1¢	$100	0xce3be6…
04-15 08:17:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	528	37¢	$195	0x0b1545…
04-08 19:30:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	528	19¢	$100	0x53b582…
03-27 12:14:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x8d07de…
03-18 07:27:17	will sp 500 spx close at 6900 7000 in march	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x7376a3…
03-17 09:27:03	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	208	5¢	$10	0x2cf8b2…
03-17 09:23:23	spx opens up or down on march 17 2026	Up	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x1beefa…
03-16 06:14:35	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0xa60fe1…
03-15 20:03:33	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	SELL	14	74¢	$10	0x371bac…
03-15 18:39:39	bitcoin above 68k on march 22	No	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x60ee98…
03-15 18:38:45	bitcoin above 62k on march 22	No	BUY	189	5¢	$10	0x12ae6e…
03-15 18:29:31	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	145	93¢	$135	0x5cd9a9…
03-12 19:14:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,525	7¢	$100	0x3795dd…
03-12 19:13:43	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	25,000	0¢	$100	0x4028f2…
03-12 18:38:41	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	208	5¢	$10	0x9ec094…
03-12 18:29:39	will russia capture hryshyne by march 15 2026 338	No	BUY	291	3¢	$10	0xab0427…
03-12 18:23:31	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xc372f8…
03-12 18:23:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x5096f2…
03-12 18:23:09	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$10	0x80cdab…
03-12 18:22:17	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x483cb6…
03-11 20:48:41	btc updown 5m 1773263700	Down	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x7bfd01…
03-11 20:43:53	btc updown 5m 1773263700	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5da272…
03-11 20:43:03	btc updown 5m 1773261600	Up	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x88e0b5…
03-11 20:42:29	btc updown 5m 1773261600	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x403fcd…
03-11 20:39:01	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0x1576c5…
03-11 20:31:27	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xf7b4bf…
03-11 20:30:47	will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	No	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xde4eb6…
03-11 19:34:33	btc updown 5m 1773257400	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7b1517…
03-11 19:29:09	btc updown 5m 1773257100	Up	BUY	32	18¢	$6	0xfb723f…
03-11 19:28:59	btc updown 5m 1773257100	Up	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0xfe491c…
03-11 19:28:49	btc updown 5m 1773257100	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x304ba2…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	18	$228.0K	3,787	05-07 22:44
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	17	$10.5K	4,154	04-16 08:54
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	16	$39.2K	368	05-27 18:21
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	16	$3.20K	1,534	05-08 18:33
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	15	$109.2K	977	05-08 19:11
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	15	$106.0K	7,061	05-09 05:57
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	15	$61.2K	779	05-09 19:44
Spirited-Motion 0x70b6…aa2f	15	$3.46K	1,513	04-07 22:11