Crafty-Asphalt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$101

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 10-24 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Politics

40% 80% +$31

Tech

32% 88% -$125

Other

16% 67% -$4

Sports

10% 0% -$1

Crypto

2% 33% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	2	$291	175	175	+0	Yes	-$18	06-14 14:03
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	2	$223	116	116	+0	No	+$9	05-28 04:12
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	3	$217	140	140	+0	No	-$1	05-27 07:41
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	2	$216	109	109	+0	No	+$0	05-24 05:58
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	3	$160	180	180	+0	Yes	-$160	07-02 16:41
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	1	$140	160	0	+160	No	+$19	06-18 08:09
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	1	$136	141	0	+141	No	+$5	06-17 17:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$133	154	0	+154	No	+$22	06-02 10:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$129	134	0	+134	No	+$5	05-31 07:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	1	$116	129	0	+129	No	+$13	05-28 07:03
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	3	$103	110	0	+110	No	+$7	06-26 22:33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$94	55	41	+14	Yes	+$2	04-11 11:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$53	55	0	+55	No	+$2	04-01 11:17
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	03-21 03:32
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$52	53	0	+53	Yes	+$1	03-21 03:31
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	04-11 11:09
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$14	7	7	+0	Yes	+$0	08-27 05:07
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$13	7	7	+0	Yes	+$1	07-17 04:01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$8	10	10	+0	No	-$6	09-26 01:58
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	Yes	+$1	08-27 07:26
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	1	$4	15	0	+15	open	—	10-24 16:33
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$1	10	0	+10	No	-$1	07-31 08:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?	1	$1	10	0	+10	No	-$1	06-01 18:21
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on June 1?	2	$0	100	0	+100	No	$0	06-01 20:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:33:50	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0xe5f37b…
09-26 01:58:38	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x905108…
09-03 05:57:37	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x3841db…
09-02 13:45:01	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x4da910…
08-27 07:26:21	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x4451fc…
08-27 05:07:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xdd8780…
08-24 13:49:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x8bd464…
07-31 08:04:33	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb289ac…
07-17 04:01:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0xa9d732…
07-09 12:24:28	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xfe85fc…
07-02 16:41:29	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0xf594eb…
06-30 17:04:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	111	89¢	$99	0xa21abb…
06-30 16:55:14	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	68	89¢	$61	0x412be7…
06-26 22:33:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xfb5c6e…
06-26 09:36:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0xd9d848…
06-26 09:26:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	58	93¢	$54	0x3cc523…
06-18 08:09:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	160	88¢	$140	0x31d989…
06-17 17:00:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	141	97¢	$136	0x86fefa…
06-14 14:03:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	175	78¢	$137	0xc4b538…
06-11 13:45:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	175	88¢	$154	0x48d7d5…
06-02 10:04:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	154	86¢	$133	0xf66255…
06-01 20:06:59	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xc2688c…
06-01 19:51:32	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	99	0¢	$0	0x20362f…
06-01 18:21:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x8ea5bb…
05-31 07:00:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	134	97¢	$129	0x35d116…
05-28 07:03:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	129	90¢	$116	0xa4f0e6…
05-28 04:12:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	116	100¢	$116	0x7bd2ed…
05-27 07:42:01	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	116	92¢	$107	0x537291…
05-27 07:41:43	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	140	77¢	$108	0x7afea3…
05-24 05:59:10	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	138	78¢	$107	0xbaf51f…
05-24 05:58:53	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x2a2704…
05-12 11:37:20	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0xb0f020…
05-07 15:33:32	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	109	99¢	$108	0x6cd29c…
04-11 11:09:31	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x5fefaa…
04-11 11:09:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xbac960…
04-11 11:08:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0xadc272…
04-01 11:17:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xe294bc…
04-01 06:23:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x62cdf2…
03-21 03:32:11	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x70199a…
03-21 03:31:55	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0xd3d51d…