Defensive-Simplification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.7%

Resolved

Trades

355

lifetime

Volume

$761

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 05-12 00:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 39% $-38

Politics

2% — —

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 176 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$26	28	28	+0	Down	+$6	05-05 23:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	3	$20	43	0	+43	open	—	04-29 11:31
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$16	405	405	+0	open	—	03-01 01:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	2	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$4	05-05 18:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	4	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	05-01 01:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	4	$13	19	8	+11	open	—	05-01 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	3	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	05-01 01:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$12	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 19:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	4	$12	81	0	+81	open	—	04-29 04:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$12	11	11	+0	Down	+$2	05-05 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$5	05-11 23:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	1	$10	30	0	+30	Up	$-10	05-06 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	04-29 11:35
btc updown 5m 1772331000	1	$10	333	0	+333	open	—	03-01 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	04-29 23:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	04-29 23:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	1	$9	33	0	+33	open	—	04-29 11:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	2	$9	21	0	+21	open	—	04-29 04:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$8	6	6	+0	open	—	05-02 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	3	$7	30	5	+25	open	—	05-02 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	2	$7	12	0	+12	open	—	04-30 00:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$7	21	0	+21	open	—	04-29 12:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	2	$7	17	0	+17	open	—	04-29 10:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	4	$7	9	9	+0	Down	+$3	05-06 05:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	4	$7	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-06 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	2	$6	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 23:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$6	8	8	+0	open	—	05-02 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	3	$6	8	3	+4	open	—	05-01 01:53
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$6	1,508	0	+1,508	open	—	03-14 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$6	40	0	+40	open	—	04-29 12:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 00:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6103ac…
05-12 00:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9bb003…
05-12 00:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x2f8ce6…
05-12 00:05:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0xe1d4da…
05-11 23:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x5eddf7…
05-11 23:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x33b46f…
05-11 23:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd9fc6e…
05-11 23:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0xfb6d61…
05-11 23:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x0b7a54…
05-06 22:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6907d3…
05-06 22:53:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb30de1…
05-06 22:47:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xfa30bd…
05-06 22:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x9c6bfc…
05-06 22:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x928c1e…
05-06 22:34:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x2fedb8…
05-06 22:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4799d7…
05-06 22:27:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xeedb35…
05-06 22:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xbe8881…
05-06 22:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x26f6e8…
05-06 22:25:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xea9af6…
05-06 22:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5e662a…
05-06 22:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xcb4e8f…
05-06 22:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xeb7897…
05-06 22:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x345e31…
05-06 22:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x421ee5…
05-06 22:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x3057ef…
05-06 22:16:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x0a1d8c…
05-06 22:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x989f26…
05-06 22:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5ab38a…
05-06 22:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc82a94…
05-06 05:43:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x1ac0e2…
05-06 05:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xd5e2bb…
05-06 05:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2b450e…
05-06 05:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf03e74…
05-06 05:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe0dceb…
05-06 05:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0704a0…
05-06 05:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x23828c…
05-06 05:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3060f1…
05-06 05:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x6db70c…
05-06 05:23:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8d62db…
05-06 05:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb287ed…
05-06 05:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x8491e1…
05-06 05:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x639969…
05-06 05:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0xaf0295…
05-06 05:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb35452…
05-06 05:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x7f16e1…
05-06 05:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd87624…
05-06 05:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x6663a4…
05-06 05:05:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xccf278…
05-06 05:03:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	17	8¢	$1	0xb55d2e…
05-06 05:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd2c84f…
05-06 04:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x2ded3c…
05-06 04:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb46434…
05-06 04:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0xcf4022…
05-06 04:56:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x50bdda…
05-06 04:52:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcf5e29…
05-06 04:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe80085…
05-06 04:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xf1f206…
05-06 04:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x71522a…
05-06 04:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x65af3c…
05-06 04:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa83e4e…
05-06 04:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x00c9f3…
05-06 04:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x435d5d…
05-06 04:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x49deb0…
05-06 04:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x27ede8…
05-06 04:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x38483f…
05-06 04:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x8f3004…
05-06 04:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdedbd9…
05-06 04:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1b6a50…
05-06 04:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa7bdb4…
05-06 04:18:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7af395…
05-06 04:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x3fa664…
05-06 04:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x363975…
05-06 04:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x02b5b4…
05-06 04:12:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x1c6dff…
05-06 00:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x514cd1…
05-06 00:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x05a5e8…
05-06 00:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4f4478…
05-06 00:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x270ef4…
05-05 23:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	28	59¢	$16	0x48c8da…
05-05 23:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xa572f0…
05-05 23:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x9a43dc…
05-05 22:31:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8725f7…
05-05 22:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x645833…
05-05 22:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x596ff4…
05-05 22:07:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xdac36c…
05-05 22:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb8c2a6…
05-05 19:19:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8ebc31…
05-05 19:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	12	56¢	$7	0xe37a95…
05-05 19:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xa09c26…
05-05 19:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2669d9…
05-05 18:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9155c1…
05-05 18:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	11	58¢	$7	0x3b8477…
05-05 18:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe1c931…
05-05 18:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x50ca10…
05-05 18:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x09fbf1…
05-05 18:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x12d7f2…
05-02 15:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x22f990…
05-02 15:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x363186…
05-02 15:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xbb23e8…