Naive-Cabin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

44.6%

Resolved

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$521

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-03 16:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 38% $-30

Other

22% — —

Sports

3% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	2	$55	53	53	+0	open	—	03-08 12:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	3	$26	22	22	+0	open	—	05-04 16:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	5	$25	31	0	+31	open	—	05-04 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	5	$21	63	0	+63	Down	$-21	05-06 16:14
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	03-06 13:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	4	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	05-04 15:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$20	32	0	+32	open	—	05-04 15:43
btc updown 5m 1772621100	1	$18	18	0	+18	open	—	03-04 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$16	41	0	+41	Down	$-16	05-05 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	4	$16	22	0	+22	Up	+$6	05-06 16:09
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	02-12 11:01
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	03-06 13:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	2	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	05-04 14:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-04 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	2	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	05-30 15:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	2	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-04 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-04 14:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	5	$9	42	0	+42	open	—	05-04 15:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$8	32	0	+32	open	—	05-25 15:04
will bitcoin dip to 85k in january 2026	3	$7	16	2	+13	open	—	01-26 13:31
btc updown 5m 1772620800	1	$7	18	0	+18	open	—	03-04 10:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	3	$7	40	0	+40	open	—	05-04 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	3	$7	51	0	+51	open	—	05-04 15:14
btc updown 5m 1783095900	3	$7	23	0	+23	open	—	07-03 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	3	$7	64	0	+64	open	—	05-04 15:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	3	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$7	11	0	+11	open	—	05-30 15:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$6	59	0	+59	open	—	05-04 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$6	15	0	+15	Down	$-6	05-06 16:02
btc updown 5m 1783096200	2	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	07-03 16:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 16:31:40	btc updown 5m 1783096200	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xf582e7…
07-03 16:31:13	btc updown 5m 1783096200	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xa5d87c…
07-03 16:27:20	btc updown 5m 1783095900	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8cba0b…
07-03 16:26:20	btc updown 5m 1783095900	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x064470…
07-03 16:25:46	btc updown 5m 1783095900	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x34d7f3…
06-15 15:11:10	btc updown 5m 1781536200	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x345eb8…
06-15 15:06:15	btc updown 5m 1781535900	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x8af40f…
06-15 15:06:04	btc updown 5m 1781535900	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa3dfea…
06-15 15:05:46	btc updown 5m 1781535900	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xc69e0b…
06-12 14:34:12	btc updown 5m 1781274600	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xfd6335…
06-12 14:33:15	btc updown 5m 1781274600	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x7ab969…
06-12 14:31:07	btc updown 5m 1781274600	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xde78e1…
06-01 14:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfa66f2…
06-01 14:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe95ffd…
06-01 14:11:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x125f56…
05-30 15:57:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0ef540…
05-30 15:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x37114a…
05-30 15:47:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x6c3a29…
05-30 15:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x0bfcb5…
05-30 15:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x12d151…
05-30 15:39:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4868a9…
05-30 15:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xeb234e…
05-30 15:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd3e4cf…
05-30 15:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3904db…
05-25 15:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x73444b…
05-25 15:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x2dfbb0…
05-25 15:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x09054f…
05-25 15:04:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2dbf38…
05-25 15:03:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x774c40…
05-25 15:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9ddbb4…
05-25 15:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xcefb47…
05-25 14:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xdaaeb1…
05-25 14:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe8fc88…
05-25 14:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x732d65…
05-06 16:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x575def…
05-06 16:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x885931…
05-06 16:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x09efd1…
05-06 16:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x518204…
05-06 16:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x08dab5…
05-06 16:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0f3576…
05-06 16:07:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xf98dfa…
05-06 16:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x7d7a1b…
05-06 16:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3a1acc…
05-06 16:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x62139d…
05-06 16:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa11ce5…
05-05 15:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe34955…
05-05 14:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf49ebb…
05-05 14:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x43690d…
05-05 14:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x6271b8…
05-05 14:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x384485…
05-05 14:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8c47f3…
05-05 14:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x06bae4…
05-04 16:24:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xefef80…
05-04 16:16:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x378e2e…
05-04 15:58:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x7a3502…
05-04 15:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xc69bf5…
05-04 15:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x683d9d…
05-04 15:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x7e298d…
05-04 15:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8e038b…
05-04 15:51:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x89633d…
05-04 15:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x573d35…
05-04 15:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xfba373…
05-04 15:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x83b9a0…
05-04 15:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xf605a1…
05-04 15:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xb2107f…
05-04 15:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xde328a…
05-04 15:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8fb42a…
05-04 15:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x559da3…
05-04 15:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd496e5…
05-04 15:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x7ff721…
05-04 15:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x93531d…
05-04 15:32:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x3087d2…
05-04 15:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x10cf9a…
05-04 15:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf8235e…
05-04 15:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc0772a…
05-04 15:27:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x244372…
05-04 15:21:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	12	21¢	$3	0x6eea70…
05-04 15:18:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x18e1af…
05-04 15:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x27d4e3…
05-04 15:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb9b9e8…
05-04 15:10:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe2ed3a…
05-04 15:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x21a4d6…
05-04 15:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x43efbd…
05-04 15:06:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x1d639b…
05-04 15:05:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x1e42d3…
05-04 14:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xc48182…
05-04 14:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x878ccf…
05-04 14:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd2e7a6…
05-04 14:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8b7e99…
05-04 14:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xf2a2a7…
05-04 14:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xa8fcb2…
05-04 14:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc7da0e…
05-04 14:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc00274…
05-04 14:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd4c884…
05-04 14:33:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2afbab…
05-04 14:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x5a3198…
05-04 14:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x5ece7b…
05-04 14:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x98a09e…
05-03 15:54:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x080c3d…
05-03 15:51:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb15be6…