Improbable-Figure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$366

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

2.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$856

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 05-25 16:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 0% $-300

Politics

9% 50% $-66

Other

8% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	2	$275	25,500	0	+25,500	Down	$-275	05-06 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$100	155	0	+155	open	—	05-03 23:48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$68	67,800	0	+67,800	Yes	$-68	05-09 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	2	$56	1,417	0	+1,417	open	—	05-04 00:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	1	$47	291	0	+291	open	—	05-04 00:46
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	4	$46	609	609	+0	open	—	05-25 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$30	778	0	+778	open	—	05-04 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	05-03 23:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	1	$25	444	0	+444	open	—	05-04 00:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	1	$25	248	0	+248	open	—	05-04 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	1	$25	179	0	+179	Up	$-25	05-06 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$25	32	0	+32	open	—	05-04 00:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	05-04 00:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	05-03 23:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$24	561	561	+0	open	—	05-10 17:27
Canadiens vs. Lightning	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	05-03 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	1	$10	59	0	+59	open	—	05-03 22:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$10	12	0	+12	No	+$2	05-03 22:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 16:49:31	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	609	3¢	$17	0x25409c…
05-10 17:27:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	561	1¢	$7	0xc7cd7d…
05-10 17:24:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	450	1¢	$6	0x4da8e2…
05-10 17:20:46	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x620d1f…
05-10 17:20:32	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	366	4¢	$15	0xcc44ec…
05-09 13:14:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0xfc47b1…
05-09 13:10:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15,000	0¢	$15	0xb6b1f5…
05-09 13:10:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15,000	0¢	$15	0x08a83a…
05-09 13:02:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27,800	0¢	$28	0xc1d28f…
05-06 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	25,000	1¢	$250	0x2cd8e7…
05-06 17:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x0ae8c4…
05-06 17:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	179	14¢	$25	0xa18ea6…
05-04 00:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	444	6¢	$25	0x79deaf…
05-04 00:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	291	16¢	$47	0x254c3d…
05-04 00:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	248	10¢	$25	0x602882…
05-04 00:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	864	3¢	$25	0x10d66f…
05-04 00:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	553	6¢	$31	0xa3244e…
05-04 00:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x539211…
05-04 00:32:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	278	9¢	$25	0x5d7009…
05-04 00:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x816071…
05-04 00:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x5ef511…
05-03 23:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	155	64¢	$100	0x72e73b…
05-03 23:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x9e9656…
05-03 23:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x4df410…
05-03 23:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xf86b55…
05-03 22:57:14	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	121	7¢	$9	0x4bad6a…
05-03 22:43:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x838a3a…
05-03 22:41:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xd659be…
05-03 22:39:18	Canadiens vs. Lightning	Canadiens	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x12b578…
05-03 22:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x8955b8…