Noted-Activation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$30

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.7%

Resolved

Trades

486

lifetime

Volume

$22.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 07-11 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

52% — —

Crypto

22% 43% $-19

Politics

16% 0% $-11

Tech

7% — —

Sports

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	28	$2.9K	1,561	1,561	+0	open	—	04-27 23:03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$1.5K	788	788	+0	open	—	04-27 13:28
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 16c	2	$924	476	475	+1	open	—	04-17 04:01
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 17c	2	$911	470	469	+1	open	—	04-14 23:18
wti up or down on april 13 2026	4	$890	900	900	+0	open	—	04-11 17:04
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$765	500	500	+0	open	—	04-17 13:25
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$700	500	500	+0	open	—	04-12 18:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$680	700	700	+0	open	—	04-15 13:10
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	2	$669	500	500	+0	open	—	04-29 14:25
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	5	$574	600	600	+0	open	—	04-11 22:52
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 19c	11	$513	264	263	+1	open	—	04-14 01:28
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$485	100	400	-300	open	—	04-13 11:11
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19?	6	$461	363	363	+0	open	—	05-19 15:38
nflx up or down on april 13 2026	2	$402	410	402	+8	open	—	04-11 08:48
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	2	$393	455	0	+455	open	—	02-27 12:01
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	2	$371	193	193	+0	open	—	07-02 20:58
nba orl cle 2026 03 24	2	$351	191	191	+0	open	—	03-25 02:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$351	197	197	+0	open	—	02-27 07:21
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$340	163	220	-57	open	—	02-27 07:21
atp michels sinner 2026 03 24	3	$329	173	173	+0	open	—	03-24 22:35
bitcoin above 70k on february 12	4	$279	147	147	+0	open	—	02-12 09:00
highest temperature in seoul on april 16 2026 22c	8	$267	184	112	+72	open	—	04-16 03:22
bitcoin above 66k on february 12	3	$263	152	152	+0	open	—	02-12 16:23
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	2	$251	161	161	+0	open	—	07-03 19:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6PM ET	3	$241	124	124	+0	open	—	05-18 22:59
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$235	131	131	+0	open	—	02-24 15:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$235	227	227	+0	open	—	05-31 22:46
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	2	$226	121	121	+0	open	—	02-21 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18?	2	$219	119	119	+0	open	—	05-18 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	4	$215	159	159	+0	open	—	05-18 11:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 15:46:41	bitcoin up or down on july 11 2026	Down	BUY	92	35¢	$32	0x5d2797…
07-11 15:45:53	bitcoin up or down on july 11 2026	Up	SELL	54	64¢	$35	0xb11cef…
07-11 15:09:23	bitcoin up or down on july 11 2026	Up	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0x9f0fc9…
07-11 12:03:56	lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	Hanwha Life Esports	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x71a4cb…
07-11 11:52:29	lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0xac7602…
07-11 11:51:44	lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	LYON	SELL	26	22¢	$6	0x356622…
07-11 11:27:01	lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	LYON	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xe0d1e7…
07-11 11:17:31	lol hle1 ly 2026 07 11	LYON	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xbf8df9…
07-10 20:10:32	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	SELL	99	72¢	$72	0x334ee5…
07-10 19:13:43	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	99	75¢	$75	0xb955e6…
07-06 18:38:55	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	56	35¢	$20	0x51f4df…
07-06 14:12:10	btc updown 15m 1783346400	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xde7f4f…
07-06 14:01:47	btc updown 15m 1783346400	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x25bcc7…
07-06 13:59:59	btc updown 15m 1783346400	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9e66ce…
07-06 11:42:56	btc updown 15m 1783337400	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x69a282…
07-04 22:52:20	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 extra time	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x8561cc…
07-04 22:18:59	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0x0cdaef…
07-04 21:36:02	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xb3d536…
07-04 21:33:28	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 extra time	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x4f5929…
07-04 19:13:32	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x397862…
07-04 14:14:26	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	44	43¢	$19	0x5b5485…
07-04 10:35:28	btc updown 15m 1783161000	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1a49be…
07-03 19:06:19	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	161	72¢	$116	0xb12656…
07-03 18:18:10	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	161	84¢	$135	0x31e5c7…
07-02 20:58:32	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x037caa…
07-02 20:58:07	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	193	99¢	$192	0x36b660…
07-02 20:47:10	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	193	93¢	$179	0x17a533…
07-02 15:05:44	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x2bc214…
07-01 17:59:53	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 3pt5	Under	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x475348…
07-01 17:42:20	fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	41	88¢	$36	0x69a871…
07-01 02:36:25	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 0pt5	Over	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x584c41…
06-30 22:59:02	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 0pt5	Over	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0x2396e4…
06-30 22:57:55	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 4pt5	Under	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xcb3387…
06-30 22:09:28	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x014d93…
06-09 17:04:15	bitcoin up or down june 9 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	153	34¢	$52	0xd2df3d…
06-08 15:53:51	bitcoin up or down june 8 2026 11am et	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x10e86e…
06-06 11:33:51	bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x2f66ce…
06-06 11:13:18	bitcoin up or down june 6 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x2f04d0…
06-03 16:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xfa3a90…
06-03 16:38:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x57299b…
06-03 10:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xdcaa0d…
06-03 10:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0x9be93a…
06-03 10:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0x834409…
06-03 10:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x22a1aa…
06-02 13:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x234128…
06-01 22:43:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x383dc4…
06-01 22:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x752192…
06-01 21:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x76387e…
06-01 20:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	51	38¢	$19	0x72a7f2…
06-01 20:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4fe246…
06-01 20:15:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xfbf24b…
06-01 19:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	42	75¢	$32	0x91a6b6…
06-01 19:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0x5af72d…
06-01 18:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xf00ec3…
06-01 18:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x0d8a82…
05-31 22:46:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	18¢	$8	0x39d32b…
05-31 22:32:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x148d8f…
05-31 22:32:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	78¢	$80	0xe6badd…
05-31 14:41:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0xbf6121…
05-31 13:53:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET	Up	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0x27bfaf…
05-31 13:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x7d9122…
05-31 12:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0xdd2565…
05-31 12:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xf432fa…
05-31 11:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x51b21c…
05-31 11:16:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0845f2…
05-31 10:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xc788ae…
05-31 10:51:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6AM ET	Up	SELL	21	55¢	$12	0x03f9c3…
05-31 10:37:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x9f1f9c…
05-30 19:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET	Up	SELL	27	55¢	$15	0x4006d3…
05-30 19:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x74fa3e…
05-30 18:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET	Down	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xae4fec…
05-30 18:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET	Down	SELL	22	64¢	$14	0xd9de63…
05-30 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xa7651c…
05-30 18:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	39	59¢	$23	0xece7b2…
05-30 18:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x0483c0…
05-30 17:45:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	1	60¢	$0	0x31412e…
05-30 17:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	66	60¢	$40	0x78ba30…
05-30 17:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x4033b0…
05-30 17:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0xd3ee4a…
05-30 16:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET	Up	SELL	32	66¢	$21	0x2674b8…
05-30 16:34:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x450b64…
05-30 15:55:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x7e094a…
05-30 15:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x4ddca3…
05-30 14:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x723943…
05-29 15:59:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	23¢	$18	0xa8cdf8…
05-29 14:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0x4bf3f2…
05-29 14:37:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	29¢	$15	0x683964…
05-29 14:37:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	29¢	$7	0x5796ce…
05-29 14:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc04fe9…
05-29 11:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xd49626…
05-29 11:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xc69fd1…
05-27 16:42:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	19	81¢	$16	0x45f745…
05-27 16:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xbcf7b8…
05-27 16:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	40¢	$4	0x6e21c1…
05-27 16:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x05fb0d…
05-27 16:25:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	178	3¢	$5	0x0d4786…
05-27 16:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xb6c277…
05-27 16:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x9ac7f1…
05-27 16:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x51c4ea…
05-27 16:05:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x18b61f…