Smooth-Caftan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

37.9%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-15

last 07-05 13:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 38% $-10

Other

16% — —

Politics

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-123	$-6	2¢	$-3	+$3	06-11 14:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$116	97	97	+0	open	—	05-03 16:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	1	$100	400	0	+400	open	—	04-15 03:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	3	$87	68	68	+0	open	—	05-03 16:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$71	64	64	+0	open	—	05-03 17:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	3	$56	36	36	+0	open	—	05-04 00:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$50	179	179	+0	open	—	06-01 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	5	$50	176	0	+176	open	—	05-04 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	4	$40	1,476	0	+1,476	open	—	05-03 13:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$30	180	0	+180	open	—	05-07 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$30	60	0	+60	Up	$-8	05-07 19:58
btc updown 5m 1781101200	1	$25	47	0	+47	open	—	06-10 14:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	2	$22	204	0	+204	Down	$-22	05-05 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$21	81	0	+81	open	—	05-04 00:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	12	$21	121	0	+121	open	—	05-03 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	1	$20	251	0	+251	open	—	05-03 15:37
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	82	0	+82	open	—	05-13 19:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	2	$20	92	0	+92	Up	$-20	05-05 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$20	106	0	+106	open	—	05-04 00:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$20	93	0	+93	open	—	05-03 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$20	68	0	+68	Down	+$48	05-05 04:06
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$20	222	0	+222	open	—	05-06 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$20	48	0	+48	Down	$-20	05-05 08:26
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$20	288	0	+288	open	—	05-14 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$20	40	0	+40	Up	+$20	05-08 02:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	2	$20	25	0	+25	Up	+$5	05-05 08:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$19	102	0	+102	open	—	05-03 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	2	$19	112	0	+112	open	—	05-03 16:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	1	$19	109	0	+109	open	—	04-15 03:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	1	$16	82	0	+82	open	—	05-06 11:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	06-01 11:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 13:21:58	btc updown 5m 1783257600	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xf1d9ba…
07-05 11:41:26	btc updown 5m 1783251600	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x98b19b…
07-05 11:41:23	btc updown 5m 1783251600	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x5fee9f…
07-05 11:39:26	bitcoin above 62k on july 5 2026	No	BUY	159	6¢	$10	0xf4cd9c…
06-11 14:57:33	btc updown 5m 1781189700	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xf6c9d6…
06-11 14:57:24	btc updown 5m 1781189700	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x7dea67…
06-11 14:56:45	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	5¢	$6	0x5648d3…
06-10 14:22:09	btc updown 5m 1781101200	Down	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x01935d…
06-10 14:06:40	btc updown 5m 1781100300	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xa74775…
06-10 14:06:40	btc updown 5m 1781100300	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x864de2…
06-01 11:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xbd7eff…
06-01 11:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x37ed8d…
06-01 11:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x2ee7eb…
06-01 11:44:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	179	0¢	$0	0xd55d65…
05-14 17:55:10	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	207	5¢	$10	0xd7028d…
05-13 19:07:55	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	82	24¢	$20	0x92d411…
05-13 19:04:58	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x56e051…
05-13 19:04:09	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x51c889…
05-13 18:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xd2a6a0…
05-13 18:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x5612eb…
05-13 18:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x609582…
05-13 18:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf963d2…
05-08 02:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfab1bc…
05-08 02:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x99adbd…
05-07 20:12:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x64a146…
05-07 19:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x804bd5…
05-07 19:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x640671…
05-07 19:56:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	241	4¢	$10	0x9834d2…
05-07 19:56:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xb7ee14…
05-07 19:55:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	17¢	$30	0xb11aa6…
05-06 11:41:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	82	20¢	$16	0x4078ee…
05-06 11:39:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xe20421…
05-06 11:39:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x325a46…
05-06 11:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xeb3964…
05-05 08:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xe1f3e6…
05-05 08:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	167	7¢	$12	0x14c4e3…
05-05 08:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xce44f5…
05-05 08:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xcfa73a…
05-05 08:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x24cf94…
05-05 08:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xf7ee75…
05-05 08:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xb9e727…
05-05 04:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x79c659…
05-05 04:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x650a3a…
05-05 04:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x8c1698…
05-05 04:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x4c37a9…
05-05 04:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x91b050…
05-04 00:50:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf730a7…
05-04 00:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xe64808…
05-04 00:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	53	21¢	$11	0x52db1b…
05-04 00:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x0935f7…
05-04 00:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x459bba…
05-04 00:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x383893…
05-04 00:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xdfa71c…
05-04 00:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xeaf942…
05-04 00:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xccf234…
05-04 00:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x40d89d…
05-04 00:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x1f6ea4…
05-04 00:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xa4d70f…
05-04 00:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa0b54d…
05-04 00:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x3fe29c…
05-04 00:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6eec1d…
05-03 17:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	64	95¢	$61	0xfd21b4…
05-03 17:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0x98eb76…
05-03 17:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x5ca05d…
05-03 16:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x3597b9…
05-03 16:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	97	99¢	$96	0xf68e86…
05-03 16:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x18d76c…
05-03 16:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x776cc6…
05-03 16:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xd8b9c5…
05-03 16:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	68	99¢	$67	0x933dc8…
05-03 16:22:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xf26f39…
05-03 16:20:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xdc45a0…
05-03 16:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x5002bd…
05-03 16:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x21afaf…
05-03 16:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xc4b395…
05-03 16:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	68	14¢	$9	0xde29ac…
05-03 16:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xbeaf49…
05-03 15:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x8cb51b…
05-03 15:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	251	8¢	$20	0x07f77b…
05-03 15:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x02eb2f…
05-03 15:22:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0x213ed5…
05-03 15:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x8de4bc…
05-03 15:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xebad15…
05-03 15:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x852ecf…
05-03 15:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x54dd49…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xf0710e…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xee6206…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0xc6f3d8…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	22¢	$0	0x890638…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x81639c…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x536dcc…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x4534ca…
05-03 15:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x3b6298…
05-03 15:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x4f4c65…
05-03 14:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xabd131…
05-03 14:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	85	11¢	$9	0x3756f2…
05-03 14:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd0f620…
05-03 14:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x24375a…
05-03 13:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xbc5a5d…
05-03 13:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	287	3¢	$10	0x83633b…