Metallic-Metaphor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

74.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

$28

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-10 02:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

64% — —

Politics

22% 0% $-15

Other

7% 100% +$1

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+15	$13	98¢	$15	+$1	06-03 01:15
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No		+16	$15	84¢	$13	$-1	06-10 02:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$1.8K	1,778	0	+1,778	open	—	03-18 06:52
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$1.7K	1,710	0	+1,710	open	—	03-11 11:33
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$270	281	0	+281	open	—	06-10 02:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$213	263	0	+263	open	—	05-28 13:07
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	2	$207	119	119	+0	open	—	05-22 13:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$156	203	0	+203	open	—	05-22 13:32
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	1	$125	127	0	+127	open	—	02-26 04:44
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$81	41	41	+0	open	—	02-28 06:51
infinex fdv above 200m one day after launch 274	2	$50	32	32	+0	open	—	01-22 05:13
will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of march	2	$46	23	23	+0	open	—	03-31 01:45
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$45	31	31	+0	open	—	04-25 07:37
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	2	$45	23	23	+0	Yes	+$1	05-08 01:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$43	22	22	+0	open	—	05-28 13:06
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	04-20 10:48
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$40	23	23	+0	open	—	01-23 07:55
will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	2	$37	19	19	+0	open	—	03-31 01:45
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	1	$32	37	0	+37	open	—	01-23 07:56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$32	22	22	+0	open	—	04-25 07:37
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	1	$31	32	0	+32	open	—	04-25 07:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	04-25 07:37
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$28	38	0	+38	open	—	01-23 07:55
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	2	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	02-19 07:27
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	03-31 01:46
maduro out by february 28 2026	1	$23	37	0	+37	open	—	01-03 07:47
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	02-13 11:23
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$22	23	0	+23	open	—	05-15 07:58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	1	$21	22	0	+22	open	—	05-20 01:28
will israel strike lebanon on february 6 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	02-07 03:02
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	1	$21	22	0	+22	open	—	03-11 11:34
will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	02-19 07:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 02:54:33	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x713355…
06-10 02:53:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	281	96¢	$270	0xb50cde…
06-03 01:15:11	Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$13	0xbf41b6…
05-28 13:07:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x6deaa8…
05-28 13:07:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$2	0x4bc0d0…
05-28 13:07:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	263	81¢	$213	0x3ead72…
05-28 13:06:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xf9cc5d…
05-22 13:32:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	203	77¢	$156	0xf6a336…
05-22 13:32:06	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	SELL	119	89¢	$106	0x136674…
05-20 01:28:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x193de6…
05-20 01:27:42	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	119	85¢	$101	0x85e714…
05-15 07:58:13	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	23	94¢	$22	0xd649bc…
05-15 07:56:02	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xbf3a8e…
05-08 01:24:26	Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xc266a6…
05-08 01:23:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x23f149…
05-08 01:21:48	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x0908d3…
04-25 07:39:44	Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$31	0xaf05e9…
04-25 07:39:28	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xec903a…
04-25 07:38:36	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xa4d21b…
04-25 07:38:22	Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x9e568a…
04-25 07:38:06	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x247bf0…
04-25 07:37:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xb2a698…
04-25 07:37:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	63¢	$14	0xe69aae…
04-25 07:37:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	SELL	31	65¢	$20	0x111e06…
04-20 10:50:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x9fe62b…
04-20 10:50:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x725ba8…
04-20 10:49:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x6c591f…
04-20 10:48:34	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0xec3b45…
04-04 01:49:45	GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x48aaf9…
03-31 01:47:11	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x7d0215…
03-31 01:46:47	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x7826b1…
03-31 01:45:43	will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xfcd89f…
03-31 01:45:37	will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of march	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xf27c05…
03-21 05:25:51	will ethereum reach 2800 in march 2026	No	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x09dfb8…
03-18 06:52:15	Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,778	99¢	$1,759	0x4c5bc1…
03-11 11:34:17	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x54be66…
03-11 11:33:41	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	1,710	99¢	$1,701	0xbb8744…
03-09 12:36:09	will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of march	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x9768f3…
03-09 12:35:33	highest temperature in london on march 9 2026 12c	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x10b11c…
03-01 12:44:33	will opinion launch a token on march 4	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x504f49…
02-28 06:51:11	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x27a5c4…
02-26 04:56:24	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	No	BUY	41	96¢	$40	0xe1fa14…
02-26 04:44:58	us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	No	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0x5b1a40…
02-19 07:31:34	will bruno mars have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x05169a…
02-19 07:29:58	ukraine officially agrees to a us backed ceasefire framework by february 28	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xa9d6bf…
02-19 07:28:18	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x305624…
02-19 07:27:06	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	SELL	17	68¢	$12	0x719929…
02-13 11:23:47	will israel strike lebanon on february 13 2026	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0xf75182…
02-13 11:23:13	us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x067568…
02-13 11:22:33	will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xea38a7…
02-07 03:02:57	will israel strike lebanon on february 6 2026	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x71fe11…
01-23 07:56:12	us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	No	BUY	37	89¢	$32	0x8113ac…
01-23 07:55:46	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	38	73¢	$28	0x8fd88f…
01-23 07:55:28	Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0xe959d8…
01-22 05:14:52	Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	91¢	$20	0x903167…
01-22 05:13:46	infinex fdv above 200m one day after launch 274	Yes	SELL	32	75¢	$24	0x5f9914…
01-09 02:51:32	infinex fdv above 200m one day after launch 274	Yes	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0x77edbd…
01-03 07:47:59	maduro out by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	37	62¢	$23	0x28863d…