Robust-Discrimination — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$145

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 05-12 17:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 59% $-16

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	8	$30	24	24	+0	Down	$-2	05-12 09:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	4	$21	18	18	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	6	$15	15	15	+0	Down	$-4	05-11 20:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	2	$11	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	05-12 10:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	2	$10	6	6	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 10:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	3	$8	10	5	+5	Down	$-2	05-11 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 17:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	3	$6	6	4	+3	Up	$-0	05-12 17:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	1	$5	2,557	0	+2,557	Up	$-5	05-12 09:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	3	$4	5	2	+4	Down	$-2	05-11 20:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$3	4	1	+3	Down	$-1	05-10 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	2	$2	3	3	+0	Up	$-2	05-11 21:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Up	+$0	05-12 17:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	05-10 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	$-2	05-09 21:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Down	+$2	05-11 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-11 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	Up	+$1	05-09 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	$-1	05-10 14:43
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$1	9	0	+9	open	—	05-09 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-10 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-10 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	$-1	05-10 12:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-10 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-10 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-10 13:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-10 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-10 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-10 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	1	$0	49	0	+49	Down	$-0	05-12 16:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 17:50:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x38561a…
05-12 17:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x401864…
05-12 17:37:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6a74bf…
05-12 17:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xd37cf0…
05-12 17:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x60bdbd…
05-12 17:05:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x0071dc…
05-12 17:01:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb86798…
05-12 16:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	49	1¢	$0	0xf8f9e6…
05-12 10:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x464968…
05-12 10:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xe65c7f…
05-12 10:31:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0x8f2d0d…
05-12 10:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xf15a35…
05-12 10:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0xeb923c…
05-12 10:22:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x35e22c…
05-12 10:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	49¢	$5	0x465c99…
05-12 10:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x75c5b1…
05-12 09:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb16653…
05-12 09:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd0dd8b…
05-12 09:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xc2fba7…
05-12 09:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x0c94ef…
05-12 09:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x76b366…
05-12 09:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x86d75a…
05-12 09:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa818bd…
05-12 09:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x66619b…
05-12 09:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,557	0¢	$5	0x4aa539…
05-11 21:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x8e19dd…
05-11 21:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe3ca37…
05-11 20:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x754f9d…
05-11 20:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x8cae77…
05-11 20:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x559916…
05-11 20:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x49ad18…
05-11 20:17:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xfc59ab…
05-11 20:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe5149d…
05-11 20:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xa24216…
05-11 20:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$4	0xc1365a…
05-11 20:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	86¢	$4	0x9398c0…
05-11 20:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xb4c316…
05-11 20:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x750113…
05-11 20:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb734e2…
05-11 19:59:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x19fdc6…
05-11 19:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xa69983…
05-10 15:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x1ef0d8…
05-10 14:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xc1ca8d…
05-10 14:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8044f5…
05-10 14:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x51d3c9…
05-10 13:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xa30417…
05-10 13:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc63c7c…
05-10 13:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x64fe5e…
05-10 12:59:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x331a6a…
05-10 12:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x85fe81…
05-10 12:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x000133…
05-10 11:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xf9b81b…
05-10 11:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x12ab4d…
05-10 09:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xb915bd…
05-10 09:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9ba2a3…
05-10 09:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x9554cd…
05-09 21:16:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x80f029…
05-09 21:06:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xd73488…
05-09 19:28:37	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x30e679…