Hollow-Well — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

Trades

649

lifetime

Volume

$34.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

$93

1 position

First seen

2026-03-15

last 07-19 21:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

93% — —

Other

4% — —

Crypto

3% 74% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 108 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-2,548	$-106	4¢	$-93	+$13	06-21 12:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	35	$4.5K	3,737	3,737	+0	open	—	04-15 23:09
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?	14	$2.9K	1,524	1,524	+0	open	—	04-10 08:35
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	30	$1.6K	1,009	1,009	+0	open	—	03-30 19:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	12	$1.6K	962	962	+0	open	—	04-17 18:15
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	8	$1.5K	951	951	+0	open	—	04-08 07:44
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?	9	$1.4K	789	789	+0	open	—	04-12 14:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	7	$1.4K	981	981	+0	open	—	04-13 16:56
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 30 2026 933	4	$1.4K	758	758	+0	open	—	03-30 14:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	8	$1.3K	717	717	+0	open	—	03-27 17:18
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	4	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	04-10 18:49
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 28 2026 519	2	$1.0K	518	518	+0	open	—	03-28 14:44
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?	14	$1.0K	821	821	+0	open	—	04-07 08:26
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	17	$940	970	970	+0	open	—	04-16 14:30
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?	5	$920	660	347	+313	open	—	04-06 05:30
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	5	$863	440	440	+0	open	—	04-05 14:28
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	11	$852	994	994	+0	open	—	04-13 16:56
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 29 2026 897	2	$758	389	389	+0	open	—	03-29 10:08
houthi military action against israel by april 15 2026	2	$729	370	370	+0	open	—	04-04 22:58
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?	2	$709	361	361	+0	open	—	04-07 16:35
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	3	$691	627	263	+363	open	—	03-31 18:21
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	5	$661	1,231	1,231	+0	open	—	04-07 21:26
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$605	351	351	+0	open	—	03-22 09:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	4	$424	350	350	+0	open	—	03-23 11:55
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?	2	$384	200	200	+0	open	—	04-10 12:18
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	17	$376	290	290	+0	open	—	04-05 22:42
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	04-05 17:17
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	2	$280	150	150	+0	open	—	04-16 17:56
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	9	$249	514	514	+0	open	—	04-08 17:27
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	2	$203	119	119	+0	open	—	04-08 00:16
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$195	135	135	+0	open	—	03-16 10:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 21:51:03	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	175	6¢	$10	0x830a08…
07-19 20:58:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xd85932…
07-19 17:53:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	121	41¢	$50	0x07dab3…
06-21 12:47:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,548	4¢	$106	0x8eeecd…
06-08 16:02:21	btc updown 5m 1780934400	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc6b92e…
06-08 08:41:55	btc updown 5m 1780908000	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x819bfa…
06-08 08:31:12	btc updown 5m 1780907400	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf10b86…
06-07 19:43:48	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	54	65¢	$35	0xc36fcb…
06-04 16:53:21	btc updown 5m 1780591800	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe6d9bb…
06-04 16:49:33	btc updown 5m 1780591500	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xb0663e…
06-04 16:48:00	btc updown 5m 1780591500	Up	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x84c522…
06-04 16:45:16	btc updown 5m 1780591500	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xa90317…
06-04 16:42:52	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xc2fa9c…
06-04 16:42:52	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x84fbd9…
06-04 16:42:52	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x6d1276…
06-04 16:42:52	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x180f6e…
06-04 16:42:25	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd32bac…
06-04 16:41:25	btc updown 5m 1780591200	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x84e002…
05-31 18:12:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x50a627…
05-31 18:08:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x482225…
05-31 17:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xc2f13f…
05-31 17:03:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xca3a12…
05-31 16:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0xeb6e61…
05-31 16:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x45b591…
05-31 16:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x699c74…
05-28 12:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x857f35…
05-28 12:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xb3a5a4…
05-28 11:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbf7444…
05-28 11:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x15d46c…
05-28 11:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0xfb6b2b…
05-28 11:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xa4e9c3…
05-28 11:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xbcff41…
05-28 11:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xc8bf0d…
05-25 07:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x614e1f…
05-25 07:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6aeae8…
05-25 07:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x8f9f42…
05-25 07:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x59f2ff…
05-25 07:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	6	87¢	$6	0x4bcf42…
05-25 07:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x9bef59…
05-25 07:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x50d2dd…
05-25 06:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xa26e28…
05-25 06:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x41424a…
05-22 12:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x6a68f7…
05-20 12:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x5f79cc…
05-20 12:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8f7474…
05-20 12:55:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x49765d…
05-20 12:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x73598d…
05-20 12:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x05283d…
05-20 12:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2627b1…
05-20 12:45:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4178c1…
05-20 12:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb63365…
05-20 12:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x604caa…
05-20 12:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x42b7f6…
05-20 12:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xed7990…
05-20 12:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8592ab…
05-20 12:34:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x414818…
05-18 20:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x796fc5…
05-18 20:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe45ecb…
05-18 20:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x621275…
05-18 20:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x7989c7…
05-18 20:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5be4b2…
05-18 20:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb6c8b4…
05-18 20:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfbdbf8…
05-18 20:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x175001…
05-18 20:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x700790…
05-15 10:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x530f0d…
05-14 22:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa5c259…
05-14 22:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x992362…
05-14 21:56:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	95	87¢	$83	0x6d9745…
05-14 21:55:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xae1b07…
05-14 21:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x3ef64c…
05-14 21:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5b6632…
05-14 21:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf1809d…
05-14 21:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xcb61be…
05-14 21:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2f9b7a…
05-14 21:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x060e48…
05-14 21:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x6c71df…
05-14 21:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xe86f1d…
05-14 21:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	81¢	$5	0x7ce811…
05-14 15:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x79f8c3…
05-14 15:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x69af01…
05-14 15:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0x6a4ff8…
05-14 15:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8e9145…
05-14 15:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x35eea3…
05-14 15:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xf89cbd…
05-14 15:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd04560…
05-14 15:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x659809…
05-14 15:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0c3005…
05-14 15:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3f2a9e…
05-14 15:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2f7471…
05-14 15:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$5	0xd77a1e…
05-14 15:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xb11b94…
05-14 14:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe2bf9f…
05-14 14:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xbf6880…
05-14 14:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd62c33…
05-14 14:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0acc76…
05-14 14:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5296af…
05-14 14:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x8ab22d…
05-14 14:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x925337…
05-14 14:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xfa321d…