Likely-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$93

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.4%

Resolved

242

Trades

1,587

lifetime

Volume

$7.20K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-21 23:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 57% +$93

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	4	$137	86	86	+0	open	—	04-29 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$91	64	64	+0	open	—	04-29 21:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	7	$87	60	60	+0	open	—	04-29 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$81	60	60	+0	open	—	04-29 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$76	53	53	+0	open	—	05-04 00:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	7	$75	60	60	+0	Down	+$33	05-06 00:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	4	$66	48	48	+0	open	—	04-29 21:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$60	48	48	+0	open	—	04-30 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$59	43	43	+0	open	—	04-30 13:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$58	54	54	+0	open	—	04-30 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$51	39	39	+0	Up	+$15	05-05 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$48	97	0	+97	open	—	04-30 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$48	38	38	+0	open	—	05-03 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	5	$47	34	34	+0	open	—	05-03 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	3	$45	36	36	+0	open	—	04-26 01:03
btc updown 5m 1776988500	2	$42	29	28	+1	open	—	04-24 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	6	$41	32	32	+0	Down	+$13	05-06 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	15	$39	28	28	+0	Up	+$9	05-06 15:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$39	24	24	+0	Down	+$9	05-08 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	5	$38	32	32	+0	open	—	05-03 02:17
btc updown 5m 1776970500	2	$38	30	29	+1	open	—	04-23 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$37	40	38	+2	open	—	04-25 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	3	$37	28	28	+0	open	—	05-03 13:37
btc updown 5m 1782079800	2	$37	24	24	+0	open	—	06-21 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	4	$36	28	28	+0	open	—	05-04 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	6	$35	29	29	+0	open	—	05-03 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	2	$35	23	23	+0	Up	+$11	05-08 04:49
btc updown 5m 1782060600	1	$34	39	0	+39	open	—	06-21 16:53
btc updown 5m 1782078900	2	$33	31	31	+0	open	—	06-21 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	3	$33	35	25	+10	open	—	05-03 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 23:32:46	btc updown 5m 1782084900	Up	BUY	42	57¢	$24	0xa59ad1…
06-21 23:29:49	btc updown 5m 1782084600	Up	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0xe2ec78…
06-21 23:24:40	btc updown 5m 1782084300	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x3c25ae…
06-21 23:23:32	btc updown 5m 1782084000	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x842c37…
06-21 23:20:53	btc updown 5m 1782084000	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x7fdf57…
06-21 23:20:53	btc updown 5m 1782084000	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$3	0x783ef6…
06-21 23:19:59	btc updown 5m 1782084000	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x6b4630…
06-21 23:14:37	btc updown 5m 1782083700	Up	BUY	27	51¢	$14	0x6f25e9…
06-21 23:10:19	btc updown 5m 1782083400	Up	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x75bbef…
06-21 23:10:19	btc updown 5m 1782083400	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x5a24ce…
06-21 23:10:19	btc updown 5m 1782083400	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x0ae5bc…
06-21 23:08:11	btc updown 5m 1782083100	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x847d46…
06-21 23:07:50	btc updown 5m 1782083100	Up	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x492668…
06-21 23:05:08	btc updown 5m 1782083100	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xaa1ad9…
06-21 23:01:16	btc updown 5m 1782082800	Up	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x6e0a13…
06-21 22:55:16	btc updown 5m 1782082500	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xd09cef…
06-21 22:54:56	btc updown 5m 1782082500	Up	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0xd206d3…
06-21 22:52:34	btc updown 5m 1782082200	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x4f3be4…
06-21 22:51:23	btc updown 5m 1782082200	Up	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xdb549e…
06-21 22:49:40	btc updown 5m 1782082200	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd33050…
06-21 22:44:49	btc updown 5m 1782081900	Up	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xacef8a…
06-21 22:43:26	btc updown 5m 1782081600	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd4ee52…
06-21 22:41:20	btc updown 5m 1782081600	Down	BUY	27	30¢	$8	0xebf11a…
06-21 22:30:50	btc updown 5m 1782081000	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfadd0f…
06-21 22:29:58	btc updown 5m 1782080700	Down	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x7ac85d…
06-21 22:27:53	btc updown 5m 1782080700	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe8c590…
06-21 22:21:50	btc updown 5m 1782080400	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x94441a…
06-21 22:21:32	btc updown 5m 1782080400	Up	SELL	12	80¢	$10	0x687efd…
06-21 22:21:32	btc updown 5m 1782080400	Up	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x1387bf…
06-21 22:20:34	btc updown 5m 1782080400	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7be19a…
06-21 22:16:22	btc updown 5m 1782080100	Down	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x9046c6…
06-21 22:14:55	btc updown 5m 1782079800	Up	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x9b22f7…
06-21 22:09:28	btc updown 5m 1782079800	Up	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0x8ca22b…
06-21 22:05:35	btc updown 5m 1782079500	Up	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xfe6afc…
06-21 21:59:31	btc updown 5m 1782078900	Up	SELL	31	74¢	$23	0xeb79ea…
06-21 21:56:04	btc updown 5m 1782078900	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xa60dc2…
06-21 21:50:49	btc updown 5m 1782078600	Up	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x85029a…
06-21 21:50:49	btc updown 5m 1782078600	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x2d9af4…
06-21 21:48:25	btc updown 5m 1782078300	Up	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x318e22…
06-21 21:45:29	btc updown 5m 1782078300	Up	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x752bf5…
06-21 21:43:56	btc updown 5m 1782078000	Down	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0x9d4570…
06-21 21:40:01	btc updown 5m 1782078000	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xafc2d5…
06-21 21:37:11	btc updown 5m 1782077700	Down	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0xfd9153…
06-21 21:35:43	btc updown 5m 1782077700	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x298eab…
06-21 21:31:01	btc updown 5m 1782077400	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5522f0…
06-21 21:23:47	btc updown 5m 1782077100	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x134677…
06-21 21:23:22	btc updown 5m 1782076800	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x38b896…
06-21 21:20:37	btc updown 5m 1782076800	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc96b7c…
06-21 21:20:37	btc updown 5m 1782076800	Down	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0xa06de6…
06-21 21:20:37	btc updown 5m 1782076800	Down	BUY	1	35¢	$0	0x18a21b…
06-21 21:16:17	btc updown 5m 1782076500	Up	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x469d13…
06-21 21:09:37	btc updown 5m 1782076200	Down	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0x09a75e…
06-21 21:04:47	btc updown 5m 1782075600	Down	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x35dc9c…
06-21 21:03:13	btc updown 5m 1782075600	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf74176…
06-21 21:01:29	btc updown 5m 1782075600	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x82252b…
06-21 20:56:23	btc updown 5m 1782075300	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf6e57d…
06-21 17:12:17	btc updown 5m 1782061800	Down	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x906576…
06-21 17:05:37	btc updown 5m 1782061500	Down	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xaa7a5d…
06-21 17:03:08	btc updown 5m 1782061200	Down	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x97b99c…
06-21 16:56:31	btc updown 5m 1782060900	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xbb9ab4…
06-21 16:53:59	btc updown 5m 1782060600	Up	BUY	39	87¢	$34	0xd54a95…
06-21 16:34:44	btc updown 5m 1782059700	Down	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0x4d4e2e…
06-21 16:27:19	btc updown 5m 1782059100	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x141ea2…
06-21 16:24:50	btc updown 5m 1782058800	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x62bc09…
06-21 16:18:56	btc updown 5m 1782058800	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7dc67d…
06-21 16:12:20	btc updown 5m 1782058200	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xf6366a…
06-21 16:11:34	btc updown 5m 1782058200	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x275475…
06-21 16:00:41	btc updown 5m 1782057600	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x362d5c…
06-21 15:59:44	btc updown 5m 1782057600	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3ee909…
06-21 15:55:32	btc updown 5m 1782057300	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf2de75…
06-21 15:50:31	btc updown 5m 1782057000	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x62bed1…
05-19 22:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x69cc80…
05-19 22:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0c800f…
05-19 22:30:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x98d48f…
05-19 22:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6add16…
05-19 22:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xa44940…
05-19 22:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x47a792…
05-19 22:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x62b9b3…
05-19 22:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5ec001…
05-19 22:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe6cf1e…
05-19 22:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x75bf8d…
05-18 02:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$5	0x25e83a…
05-18 02:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf47ca4…
05-18 02:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x045f45…
05-18 02:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0xaa3996…
05-18 02:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2d138a…
05-18 02:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xeff2b7…
05-18 02:15:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb810db…
05-18 02:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0xd88060…
05-18 02:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x9de3ad…
05-18 02:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7e4d85…
05-18 02:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x6bb6b3…
05-18 01:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xc24a64…
05-18 01:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x1f0b9c…
05-18 01:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x22345d…
05-18 01:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5b24c1…
05-18 01:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x106d1c…
05-18 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xb09ce9…
05-18 01:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4b3797…
05-18 01:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x7269f3…