Likely-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$29

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

81.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$68

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-05

last 05-06 19:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 82% +$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up		+8	$4	4¢	$0	$-4	05-06 19:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-06 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	05-06 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$6	12	0	+12	Up	+$6	05-06 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$6	0	11	-11	Down	$-5	05-06 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	05-06 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-06 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-06 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-06 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Down	+$3	05-05 06:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Up	+$3	05-06 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Up	$-3	05-05 01:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	1	$3	6	0	+6	Up	+$3	05-06 01:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$2	05-06 01:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	Up	+$2	05-05 23:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	05-06 18:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 19:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xdabbce…
05-06 18:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe5bd14…
05-06 18:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4175eb…
05-06 18:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x50ccd7…
05-06 01:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x4fe2ea…
05-06 01:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xc72c23…
05-06 01:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xcadadd…
05-06 01:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0f1e01…
05-06 00:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x89f752…
05-06 00:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb6fc83…
05-06 00:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcd5806…
05-06 00:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x054386…
05-05 23:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x958a19…
05-05 06:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x4b6120…
05-05 01:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x686480…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	14	$3.31K	106	05-06 20:00
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	14	$1.26K	36	05-06 19:55
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	13	$9.10K	68	05-06 19:55
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	13	$1.65K	160	05-06 20:00
Nice-Prejudice 0xfb0f…0b02	13	$1.03K	210	05-06 19:55
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	12	$1.78K	49	05-06 19:55
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	12	$1.04K	99	05-06 20:00
Mad-Plot 0x2709…20f5	12	$607	57	05-06 19:04