Likely-Simplicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$93

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.4%

Resolved

242

Trades

1,516

lifetime

Volume

$6.67K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 05-19 22:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 57% +$93

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 168 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	4	$137	86	86	+0	open	—	04-29 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	2	$91	64	64	+0	open	—	04-29 21:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	7	$87	60	60	+0	open	—	04-29 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$81	60	60	+0	open	—	04-29 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$76	53	53	+0	open	—	05-04 00:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	7	$75	60	60	+0	Down	+$33	05-06 00:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	4	$66	48	48	+0	open	—	04-29 21:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$60	48	48	+0	open	—	04-30 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$59	43	43	+0	open	—	04-30 13:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$58	54	54	+0	open	—	04-30 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	4	$51	39	39	+0	Up	+$15	05-05 01:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$48	97	0	+97	open	—	04-30 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$48	38	38	+0	open	—	05-03 14:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	5	$47	34	34	+0	open	—	05-03 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	3	$45	36	36	+0	open	—	04-26 01:03
btc updown 5m 1776988500	2	$42	29	28	+1	open	—	04-24 00:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	6	$41	32	32	+0	Down	+$13	05-06 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	15	$39	28	28	+0	Up	+$9	05-06 15:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	2	$39	24	24	+0	Down	+$9	05-08 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	5	$38	32	32	+0	open	—	05-03 02:17
btc updown 5m 1776970500	2	$38	30	29	+1	open	—	04-23 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$37	40	38	+2	open	—	04-25 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	3	$37	28	28	+0	open	—	05-03 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	4	$36	28	28	+0	open	—	05-04 02:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	6	$35	29	29	+0	open	—	05-03 02:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	2	$35	23	23	+0	Up	+$11	05-08 04:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	3	$33	35	25	+10	open	—	05-03 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	4	$32	25	25	+0	Up	+$6	05-06 00:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$32	25	25	+0	open	—	05-03 14:40
btc updown 5m 1776886800	2	$31	25	24	+1	open	—	04-22 19:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 22:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x69cc80…
05-19 22:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0c800f…
05-19 22:30:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x98d48f…
05-19 22:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6add16…
05-19 22:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xa44940…
05-19 22:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x47a792…
05-19 22:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x62b9b3…
05-19 22:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5ec001…
05-19 22:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xe6cf1e…
05-19 22:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x75bf8d…
05-18 02:34:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	52¢	$5	0x25e83a…
05-18 02:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf47ca4…
05-18 02:25:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x045f45…
05-18 02:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0xaa3996…
05-18 02:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2d138a…
05-18 02:15:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xeff2b7…
05-18 02:15:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xb810db…
05-18 02:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$3	0xd88060…
05-18 02:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0x9de3ad…
05-18 02:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7e4d85…
05-18 02:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x6bb6b3…
05-18 01:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xc24a64…
05-18 01:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x1f0b9c…
05-18 01:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x22345d…
05-18 01:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x5b24c1…
05-18 01:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x106d1c…
05-18 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xb09ce9…
05-18 01:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4b3797…
05-18 01:41:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0x7269f3…
05-18 01:40:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x85f6b6…
05-18 01:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfa66c1…
05-16 00:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x53c14f…
05-16 00:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8e1add…
05-16 00:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x408520…
05-16 00:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x99aecb…
05-16 00:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x379c8f…
05-16 00:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x00c3e4…
05-16 00:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xec2fba…
05-16 00:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xef839c…
05-16 00:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x182cd2…
05-16 00:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	79¢	$2	0xe4d380…
05-16 00:09:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xdcddb3…
05-16 00:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x86c095…
05-15 12:09:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x708a7a…
05-13 23:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xecf3dc…
05-13 23:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x586648…
05-13 23:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x0d2170…
05-13 23:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf65d24…
05-13 23:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x27ba57…
05-13 23:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x8f5d39…
05-13 22:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb6fab4…
05-11 12:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0xe72378…
05-11 12:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x3c3467…
05-11 12:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x5213c3…
05-11 12:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xff6268…
05-11 10:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x64181b…
05-11 10:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x983d6b…
05-11 10:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x44b4fe…
05-11 10:34:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x201718…
05-11 10:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x7685b3…
05-11 10:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x6954a2…
05-11 10:24:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x51a4ba…
05-11 10:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x41c390…
05-11 10:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0xca2ac1…
05-11 10:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x7903b6…
05-11 09:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$2	0x91b3bf…
05-11 09:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf9fb5b…
05-11 09:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	16	95¢	$16	0xb765cc…
05-11 09:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	16	53¢	$9	0x661c85…
05-11 09:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb3d8f7…
05-11 09:34:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x7ea6a4…
05-11 09:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x04f9a0…
05-11 09:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x134e98…
05-11 09:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xbb65da…
05-11 09:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x938249…
05-11 09:12:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xdbd672…
05-11 09:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x399ca8…
05-11 09:09:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x367b58…
05-11 09:09:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xfaf675…
05-11 09:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x4c7fd1…
05-11 09:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xb2fa0a…
05-11 08:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe8df11…
05-11 02:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x5e6f72…
05-11 02:39:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xb162d5…
05-11 02:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	75¢	$5	0xdf1b2d…
05-11 02:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x86fb52…
05-11 02:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x7e6c24…
05-11 02:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0xd7c472…
05-11 02:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x4d492d…
05-11 02:24:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x6eb378…
05-11 02:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xb146c6…
05-11 02:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6e0431…
05-11 02:19:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x76940a…
05-11 02:11:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0xc7dab2…
05-11 02:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa4d136…
05-11 02:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x207fcd…
05-11 02:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x772c97…
05-11 02:01:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x15fa46…
05-11 01:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$4	0x396c87…
05-11 01:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x2dc76b…