Ignorant-Inventory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$478

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 05-05 05:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 75% $-5

Politics

31% — —

Other

6% 100% +$0

Tech

3% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 117 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$29	18	18	+0	open	—	04-05 04:43
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	4	$18	14	14	+0	open	—	04-09 22:24
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	04-08 17:09
will melania say ai or artificial intelligence during statement on april 9	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 06:15
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026?	2	$14	16	16	+0	open	—	04-14 07:43
will trump say obama during monday news conference	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-06 20:37
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-18 17:17
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	4	$13	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 03:03
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	4	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 03:09
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	2	$11	8	8	+0	No	+$1	05-04 05:59
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 18:54
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-18 01:53
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	6	$10	11	9	+2	Up	$-4	05-05 03:19
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-05 00:34
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	6	$6	6	4	+3	Up	$-1	05-05 01:00
btc updown 5m 1776149700	4	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	04-14 07:00
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-27 04:13
btc updown 5m 1776195600	6	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	04-14 19:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	4	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$1	05-04 23:18
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	3	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 02:06
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	3	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-05 05:03
btc updown 5m 1776179700	4	$4	4	3	+0	open	—	04-14 15:20
btc updown 5m 1776195900	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-14 19:49
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	3	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 02:28
btc updown 5m 1776146400	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-14 06:01
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	3	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	05-05 03:25
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-15 05:48
btc updown 5m 1776180900	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-14 15:37
btc updown 5m 1776152700	4	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	04-14 07:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	3	$3	4	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-04 23:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 05:12:06	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xac8de2…
05-05 05:07:04	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xc0f94c…
05-05 05:03:56	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x53628b…
05-05 05:01:34	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x0658e5…
05-05 05:01:10	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x495bdb…
05-05 04:57:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf56713…
05-05 04:57:42	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x603308…
05-05 03:25:00	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xeaebad…
05-05 03:20:52	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xff6c7f…
05-05 03:20:50	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x255e7c…
05-05 03:19:42	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe33d5a…
05-05 03:19:40	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd58cc6…
05-05 03:18:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x414fe7…
05-05 03:16:52	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x66e245…
05-05 03:16:42	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$0	0xde74c8…
05-05 03:15:54	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa95214…
05-05 03:11:20	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xc490a0…
05-05 03:10:16	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x67ff7e…
05-05 03:09:32	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xd77c3e…
05-05 03:08:56	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc7c1a9…
05-05 03:08:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	29¢	$0	0x2bb2ac…
05-05 03:06:56	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x28f667…
05-05 03:03:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xc6cad4…
05-05 03:01:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x49d2d7…
05-05 03:01:22	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0xc61aff…
05-05 03:00:20	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x785808…
05-05 03:00:00	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x62a9ab…
05-05 02:59:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfaf0f0…
05-05 02:50:28	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd352dc…
05-05 02:36:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0x5eb139…
05-05 02:35:20	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xc32231…
05-05 02:31:58	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0xbcb795…
05-05 02:30:44	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x15be7b…
05-05 02:28:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$2	0x9ecb78…
05-05 02:26:06	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8796da…
05-05 02:25:24	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4ae591…
05-05 02:22:28	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xfe9dff…
05-05 02:22:22	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xe38d56…
05-05 02:20:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xbbdee4…
05-05 02:19:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x2afdbb…
05-05 02:15:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe73ea3…
05-05 02:13:08	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xad40b9…
05-05 02:10:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xe011bc…
05-05 02:06:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x88ea21…
05-05 02:05:52	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x3be77d…
05-05 02:05:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x117a8b…
05-05 02:03:32	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd8413a…
05-05 02:02:32	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x41ea26…
05-05 01:53:14	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x561589…
05-05 01:50:42	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8a5213…
05-05 01:44:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xbdd5f2…
05-05 01:40:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8ce24b…
05-05 01:36:26	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x70ab97…
05-05 01:35:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x222ca2…
05-05 01:28:16	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xe16d99…
05-05 01:25:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8623fa…
05-05 01:21:48	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x3046be…
05-05 01:20:46	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x64d633…
05-05 01:20:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x430a5a…
05-05 01:18:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x6661f5…
05-05 01:17:40	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x748074…
05-05 01:16:32	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x406576…
05-05 01:13:52	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x0e26c4…
05-05 01:13:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x80fbf6…
05-05 01:12:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x7d059e…
05-05 01:03:36	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb8c9d1…
05-05 01:03:06	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1b651b…
05-05 01:00:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x9cc2fe…
05-05 00:59:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd333ad…
05-05 00:58:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x285857…
05-05 00:58:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x62b35d…
05-05 00:58:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x1bac8b…
05-05 00:57:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x14b4f0…
05-05 00:47:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xbb0d70…
05-05 00:46:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4b5929…
05-05 00:34:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x617c9d…
05-05 00:32:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5b7694…
05-05 00:30:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x273f26…
05-05 00:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5f8816…
05-05 00:29:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9854f2…
05-04 23:37:26	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xbbecad…
05-04 23:36:34	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd195df…
05-04 23:36:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x0db639…
05-04 23:35:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd6d888…
05-04 23:32:38	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xbc4063…
05-04 23:32:14	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x199691…
05-04 23:31:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x215a39…
05-04 23:30:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xadca0c…
05-04 23:28:06	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xd81495…
05-04 23:26:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x2f19fb…
05-04 23:25:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2d6e36…
05-04 23:22:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa7893b…
05-04 23:21:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xd48926…
05-04 23:20:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xee2dc8…
05-04 23:18:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xd19a06…
05-04 23:17:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x9c83d0…
05-04 23:16:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0x59ca68…
05-04 23:15:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x042621…
05-04 23:11:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x62bade…
05-04 23:09:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xf779c0…