Knowing-Effacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$319

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 06-12 02:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 100% +$6

Other

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No		+3	$3	100¢	$3	+$0	06-02 02:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum above 2900 on january 19	1	$1.1K	1,085	0	+1,085	open	—	01-19 02:34
will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	1	$1.1K	1,084	0	+1,084	open	—	01-18 01:52
will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 17	1	$1.1K	1,081	0	+1,081	open	—	01-17 01:31
ethereum above 3000 on january 16	1	$1.1K	1,080	0	+1,080	open	—	01-16 02:17
will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 15	1	$1.1K	1,079	0	+1,079	open	—	01-15 00:56
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 14	1	$1.1K	1,077	0	+1,077	open	—	01-14 02:29
will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 12	1	$1.1K	1,074	0	+1,074	open	—	01-12 02:21
ethereum above 2800 on january 11	1	$1.1K	1,072	0	+1,072	open	—	01-11 02:08
will the price of bitcoin be between 96000 98000 on january 10	1	$1.1K	1,070	0	+1,070	open	—	01-10 02:03
will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 9	1	$1.1K	1,069	0	+1,069	open	—	01-09 06:47
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11?	1	$1.1K	1,065	0	+1,065	No	+$2	05-11 02:47
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9?	1	$1.1K	1,063	0	+1,063	No	+$2	05-09 01:55
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5?	1	$1.1K	1,055	0	+1,055	No	+$2	05-05 02:31
will israel nuke iran by january 31	2	$11	6	5	+1	open	—	01-23 09:30
will googl dip to 215 in january	7	$11	6	5	+1	open	—	01-27 04:50
ethereum above 2400 on february 6	1	$7	1,112	0	+1,112	open	—	02-06 02:08
will the price of bitcoin be less than 58000 on february 24	1	$6	1,069	0	+1,069	open	—	02-24 07:42
will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on march 11	1	$4	1,069	0	+1,069	open	—	03-11 02:38
will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on march 23	1	$3	1,143	0	+1,143	open	—	03-23 02:21
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on april 8	1	$3	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	04-08 01:20
will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on february 14	1	$3	1,085	0	+1,085	open	—	02-14 07:55
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-14 02:38
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-21 08:48
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	06-02 02:39
xrp above 1 on march 30	1	$2	1,154	0	+1,154	open	—	03-30 02:12
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-06 10:44
will the price of ethereum be greater than 2400 on march 6	1	$2	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	03-06 02:07
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 1	1	$2	1,096	0	+1,096	open	—	03-01 08:00
will the price of ethereum be between 2600 2700 on april 17	1	$2	1,086	0	+1,086	open	—	04-17 00:48
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28?	1	$2	1,085	0	+1,085	open	—	04-28 01:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 02:12:21	ethereum above 1400 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	1,064	0¢	$2	0xd318b5…
06-04 02:11:27	ethereum above 2000 on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	1,066	0¢	$2	0xc7b55d…
06-02 02:39:17	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb86a1e…
05-21 08:48:29	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x55ebf7…
05-11 02:47:53	Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11?	No	BUY	1,065	100¢	$1,063	0x9af70e…
05-09 01:55:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9?	No	BUY	1,063	100¢	$1,061	0xddaaea…
05-05 02:31:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 5?	No	BUY	1,055	100¢	$1,053	0x2e7f8b…
04-28 01:19:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28?	No	BUY	1,085	0¢	$2	0x608b08…
04-17 00:48:30	will the price of ethereum be between 2600 2700 on april 17	Yes	BUY	1,086	0¢	$2	0x3cccdf…
04-14 02:38:19	Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8a6214…
04-08 01:20:51	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on april 8	Yes	BUY	1,100	0¢	$3	0x2f3a49…
04-06 10:44:41	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8d83c4…
03-30 02:12:54	xrp above 1 on march 30	No	BUY	1,154	0¢	$2	0xbc4f2f…
03-23 02:21:43	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on march 23	Yes	BUY	1,143	0¢	$3	0x39d71c…
03-17 01:53:37	bitcoin above 82k on march 17	Yes	BUY	1,031	0¢	$2	0x2b8f78…
03-11 02:38:51	will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on march 11	Yes	BUY	1,069	0¢	$4	0xfd41e3…
03-06 02:07:43	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2400 on march 6	Yes	BUY	1,096	0¢	$2	0x2b53fe…
03-01 08:00:43	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 1	Yes	BUY	1,096	0¢	$2	0xf6e0c5…
02-24 07:42:46	will the price of bitcoin be less than 58000 on february 24	Yes	BUY	1,069	1¢	$6	0xb8eaa4…
02-14 07:55:19	will the price of ethereum be less than 1600 on february 14	Yes	BUY	1,085	0¢	$3	0x265e24…
02-06 02:08:29	ethereum above 2400 on february 6	Yes	BUY	1,112	1¢	$7	0xfbd0f8…
02-02 03:22:52	will msft close above 480 week february 6 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xecab6b…
01-30 05:58:22	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x519c36…
01-30 01:31:46	will the price of ethereum be between 3200 3300 on january 30	Yes	BUY	1,085	0¢	$1	0x83a531…
01-29 12:03:38	will russia capture all of prymorske by january 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa364ff…
01-27 04:50:27	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xce2435…
01-27 04:50:25	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa067dc…
01-27 04:50:23	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaca84b…
01-27 04:50:21	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4ff19b…
01-27 04:50:19	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xddc0c4…
01-27 04:50:17	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x6d0ca9…
01-26 09:03:13	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3612ed…
01-23 09:30:24	will israel nuke iran by january 31	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x13b904…
01-20 01:28:48	will israel nuke iran by january 31	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd16f25…
01-19 02:34:00	ethereum above 2900 on january 19	Yes	BUY	1,085	100¢	$1,083	0x63a25f…
01-18 01:52:52	will the price of ethereum be greater than 3600 on january 18	No	BUY	1,084	100¢	$1,082	0xea07e5…
01-17 01:31:02	will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 17	No	BUY	1,081	100¢	$1,080	0x5bba48…
01-16 02:17:48	ethereum above 3000 on january 16	Yes	BUY	1,080	100¢	$1,079	0xba3909…
01-15 00:56:06	will the price of ethereum be between 2900 3000 on january 15	No	BUY	1,079	100¢	$1,077	0x31c704…
01-14 02:29:16	will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 14	No	BUY	1,077	100¢	$1,075	0xbbbc66…
01-12 02:21:48	will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 12	No	BUY	1,074	100¢	$1,073	0xaeb100…
01-11 02:08:50	ethereum above 2800 on january 11	Yes	BUY	1,072	100¢	$1,071	0xd9deeb…
01-10 02:03:04	will the price of bitcoin be between 96000 98000 on january 10	No	BUY	1,070	100¢	$1,069	0xb13ef0…
01-09 06:47:54	will the price of ethereum be between 2700 2800 on january 9	No	BUY	1,069	100¢	$1,068	0x304f83…