Naive-Child — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

4.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$848

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 08-09 11:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

48% — —

Politics

42% — —

Crypto

9% 17% $-13

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	32	$321	2,879	1,929	+950	open	—	06-07 20:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	4	$158	630	630	+0	open	—	06-07 19:18
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	10	$118	493	493	+0	open	—	06-12 05:12
fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	2	$37	25	25	+0	open	—	06-17 20:53
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	1	$32	400	0	+400	open	—	08-09 11:22
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	1	$32	0	200	-200	open	—	05-27 22:39
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	2	$20	56	0	+56	open	—	05-05 07:47
fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	2	$19	15	15	+0	open	—	07-01 21:21
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	4	$19	21	21	+0	Down	$-1	05-06 16:51
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$18	59	59	+0	open	—	05-31 21:28
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	3	$17	134	9	+125	Down	$-2	05-06 16:22
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	3	$16	28	14	+14	Up	$-4	05-06 16:33
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$15	42	42	+0	open	—	06-11 06:56
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	05-27 10:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	05-15 16:30
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Down	$-5	05-07 17:48
fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 btts	1	$3	17	0	+17	open	—	06-28 00:53
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	3	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 18:08
eth updown 5m 1783623000	2	$2	12	0	+12	open	—	07-09 18:52
fifwc che col 2026 07 07 spread away 1pt5	3	$1	37	0	+37	open	—	07-07 21:36
fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 corners odd even	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	07-09 18:47
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	$-1	05-11 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 11:22:31	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x7a1719…
07-09 18:52:47	eth updown 5m 1783623000	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa4b156…
07-09 18:51:37	eth updown 5m 1783623000	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x21bf68…
07-09 18:47:16	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 corners odd even	Even	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xae780f…
07-07 21:36:26	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 spread away 1pt5	Colombia	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xee28c0…
07-07 21:36:19	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 spread away 1pt5	Colombia	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x3cfa28…
07-07 21:36:19	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 spread away 1pt5	Colombia	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0x3b436c…
07-01 21:21:26	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0xf78387…
07-01 20:14:01	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x93cb38…
06-28 00:53:40	fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 btts	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x49f087…
06-17 20:53:02	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x3c23ad…
06-17 19:42:31	fifwc eng hrv 2026 06 17 btts	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x9c04d1…
06-12 05:12:03	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	29	13¢	$4	0x3beda7…
06-12 04:51:18	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	195	13¢	$25	0x488cab…
06-12 04:16:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	115	13¢	$15	0x850ce2…
06-11 22:20:30	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	154	13¢	$20	0xd57280…
06-11 06:56:30	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	42	6¢	$3	0xcd8cb0…
06-11 01:07:13	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	67	11¢	$7	0xfc01ab…
06-10 17:30:55	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	154	11¢	$17	0xf1ce4a…
06-10 15:19:48	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xe192ab…
06-10 12:21:36	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x5c91b6…
06-10 12:12:39	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x30d133…
06-10 07:57:37	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	264	11¢	$29	0x3ae099…
06-07 20:09:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	283	1¢	$3	0xc3c2e5…
06-07 20:08:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x532082…
06-07 19:20:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	510	1¢	$6	0xf88927…
06-07 19:20:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	87	1¢	$1	0xa45f8f…
06-07 19:18:33	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	567	10¢	$57	0x92e538…
06-06 23:08:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	12¢	$8	0x3d24cc…
06-01 09:27:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	11¢	$25	0x790b33…
05-31 21:28:17	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0x5b99fa…
05-31 20:06:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	17¢	$68	0x5ffd5b…
05-31 19:45:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	900	7¢	$63	0x306f6d…
05-31 17:04:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	17¢	$5	0xdeb2ca…
05-31 13:58:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	302	6¢	$18	0x08afcd…
05-31 13:51:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0xcd0cce…
05-31 04:45:50	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xa3352b…
05-31 03:04:11	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	33	13¢	$4	0xa798ea…
05-31 02:57:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xfeedb4…
05-30 06:51:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	600	7¢	$42	0xc8e4ac…
05-28 16:33:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	SELL	586	10¢	$59	0x5c0801…
05-28 16:32:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	SELL	376	10¢	$38	0xf4f818…
05-28 16:28:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	SELL	67	10¢	$7	0x7f9cb9…
05-28 13:46:54	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	42	30¢	$13	0xdc39e2…
05-28 10:55:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	630	8¢	$50	0x92d07f…
05-28 09:35:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xcff3ce…
05-28 09:34:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x1778b7…
05-28 09:33:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xc41b32…
05-28 09:31:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x426d2d…
05-28 09:28:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x15a045…
05-28 09:16:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x12d580…
05-28 09:11:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xa69ba4…
05-28 09:05:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x4ed86b…
05-28 08:59:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe792bf…
05-28 08:53:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x400216…
05-28 08:47:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x459962…
05-28 08:39:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x20dce9…
05-28 08:39:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x13af01…
05-28 08:39:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x0a7e24…
05-28 08:38:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xeb27d3…
05-28 08:38:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x3880cb…
05-28 08:37:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x81d92b…
05-28 08:35:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x2063da…
05-28 08:35:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x7678ed…
05-28 08:34:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x7044fb…
05-27 22:39:41	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xee0f33…
05-27 10:44:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x11eaa9…
05-15 16:30:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa19b24…
05-11 18:11:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x918e17…
05-11 18:08:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xfc2ff0…
05-11 18:07:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x6d5285…
05-11 18:06:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x178bf0…
05-07 17:48:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xfcc2e2…
05-06 16:51:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x8a76ed…
05-06 16:50:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xe4b2cd…
05-06 16:50:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$6	0x587635…
05-06 16:46:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xef3463…
05-06 16:33:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x8bd363…
05-06 16:30:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	14	39¢	$6	0x56e213…
05-06 16:30:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x9e22e2…
05-06 16:22:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x552c54…
05-06 16:20:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0x82c83d…
05-06 16:16:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7dec8f…
05-05 07:47:46	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x58d312…
05-04 21:35:04	Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xa190c0…