Shameless-Incarnation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$643

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved

164

Trades

413

lifetime

Volume

$9.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-31 20:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Politics

39% 53% +$241

Other

36% 80% +$508

Crypto

25% 41% -$106

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	14	$1.8K	1,163	1,163	+0	No	+$269	06-25 07:38
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	19	$581	762	597	+165	Yes	+$125	05-11 01:38
israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	8	$527	303	303	+0	No	+$67	06-09 11:36
will israel strike gaza on february 22 2026	13	$356	475	387	+88	No	+$71	02-23 00:58
israeli forces enter nabatieh by september 30	1	$350	399	0	+399	No	+$49	08-31 19:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 01:55 UTC	5	$232	151	149	+3	Down	+$4	04-14 02:01
will israel strike gaza on february 28 2026	9	$179	199	199	+0	No	+$17	02-28 12:22
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$170	150	150	+0	Yes	+$10	03-09 03:38
will israel strike gaza on february 20 2026	5	$156	205	125	+80	Yes	+$80	02-20 05:35
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	7	$155	168	123	+45	Yes	+$21	02-09 21:58
will israel strike gaza on february 19 2026	7	$141	176	176	+0	No	+$27	02-19 17:16
will israel strike gaza on february 26 2026	3	$124	77	119	-42	Yes	+$22	02-26 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	3	$113	159	150	+9	Up	+$42	04-26 00:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	5	$111	149	130	+20	Up	+$16	04-25 23:53
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?	2	$101	59	57	+2	open	—	10-01 01:52
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	4	$100	125	125	+0	No	-$10	04-10 20:16
will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	4	$96	188	94	+94	No	-$64	02-25 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$94	124	118	+6	Up	+$20	04-25 23:57
will israel strike gaza on february 12 2026	2	$92	62	62	+0	Yes	+$32	02-13 11:35
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	4	$92	72	72	+0	Yes	+$22	02-13 03:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$90	104	99	+5	Up	+$36	04-26 00:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$89	90	90	+0	Yes	+$20	06-13 19:27
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	4	$87	88	88	+0	Yes	+$15	04-08 10:41
will israel strike gaza on february 6 2026	3	$86	60	60	+0	Yes	+$30	02-06 00:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$86	88	84	+4	Up	+$30	04-26 00:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$84	71	68	+4	Down	+$48	04-26 13:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 02:55 UTC	2	$82	49	48	+1	Up	+$13	04-14 03:00
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	4	$76	137	137	+0	No	-$3	03-29 16:04
will israel strike gaza on february 14 2026	5	$71	88	88	+0	Yes	+$4	02-14 17:30
will israel strike gaza on february 23 2026	3	$71	95	95	+0	No	-$19	02-23 17:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 20:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	53	92¢	$48	0xd64dfa…
10-31 20:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xd2186c…
10-31 20:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x4e0f3e…
10-31 20:51:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xa63a10…
10-31 20:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa0c839…
10-31 20:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x47e8ab…
10-31 20:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x83a316…
10-17 19:27:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xb3c071…
10-17 17:27:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:25 UTC	Down	SELL	14	60¢	$8	0xe6bd8a…
10-17 17:25:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd2b4a8…
10-17 17:17:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x25d478…
10-17 17:16:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x05b62a…
10-17 17:16:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x39b12e…
10-17 17:15:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0x8deb53…
10-17 17:15:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xe94e1d…
10-17 17:13:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:10 UTC	Up	SELL	38	90¢	$35	0xed7363…
10-17 17:11:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xc369de…
10-17 17:11:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xec1401…
10-17 17:08:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x27e1f4…
10-17 17:01:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xe5851b…
10-17 17:00:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xf8171a…
10-17 16:59:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:55 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa1695e…
10-17 16:57:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:55 UTC	Down	SELL	14	82¢	$12	0x2c85ee…
10-17 16:56:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:55 UTC	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x87029e…
10-17 16:53:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd9a1b6…
10-17 16:52:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:50 UTC	Up	SELL	26	6¢	$2	0x4e71af…
10-17 16:50:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xbf6d4d…
10-17 16:49:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xcb8464…
10-17 16:48:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x8b1253…
10-17 16:46:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	11	66¢	$7	0x71781f…
10-17 16:45:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0458b2…
10-17 15:08:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x3217d1…
10-17 14:43:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:40 UTC	Up	SELL	34	53¢	$18	0x5a8833…
10-17 14:41:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xc30091…
10-17 14:41:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:40 UTC	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x855d89…
10-17 14:33:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:30 UTC	Up	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x0e6aa9…
10-17 14:33:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 14:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd9b913…
10-17 13:08:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 13:05 UTC	Up	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x2b0864…
10-17 11:12:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:10 UTC	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x4a2507…
10-17 11:11:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:10 UTC	Up	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x955e38…
10-17 11:11:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:10 UTC	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x324f3d…
10-17 11:09:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:05 UTC	Down	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x73fcad…
10-17 11:08:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:05 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe37e40…
10-17 11:07:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:05 UTC	Up	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0xc6eb6a…
10-17 11:05:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x34907f…
10-17 11:04:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x0595d2…
10-17 10:57:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x72850c…
10-17 10:27:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x91ccb6…
10-17 10:24:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:20 UTC	Down	SELL	12	94¢	$11	0xa21772…
10-17 10:23:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x836251…
10-17 10:17:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:15 UTC	Up	SELL	14	77¢	$11	0x5af4d1…
10-17 10:17:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:15 UTC	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd53d05…
10-17 10:11:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x8e8a68…
10-17 10:09:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:05 UTC	Up	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x7015de…
10-17 10:08:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x9f5041…
10-17 10:06:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:05 UTC	Up	SELL	11	78¢	$9	0x2f7eb1…
10-17 10:06:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 10:05 UTC	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x707c17…
10-16 07:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe2781a…
10-11 20:29:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xf2bccc…
10-11 18:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6f9eed…
10-11 18:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x559fec…
10-11 18:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xeb9149…
10-11 18:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf3f00e…
10-11 18:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x75745c…
10-11 18:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0xb5a6d9…
10-11 18:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x97ef70…
10-11 18:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	28	15¢	$4	0x7ba062…
10-11 18:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xb03f47…
10-11 17:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xc3a4b7…
10-11 17:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x23f5ed…
10-11 17:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x0f2528…
10-11 17:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbe90db…
10-10 13:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xa01616…
10-10 11:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xf84f14…
10-10 11:02:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xfd35b1…
10-10 09:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x9765e9…
10-01 01:52:45	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?	No	SELL	57	90¢	$51	0x2c93a7…
09-18 13:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xa57bb5…
09-18 13:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x8e118e…
09-18 13:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xf98a46…
09-18 13:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x75b054…
09-18 13:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x0f3df6…
09-18 13:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x0f37d9…
09-13 05:41:30	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?	No	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0xb6c47d…
08-31 19:58:25	israeli forces enter nabatieh by september 30	No	BUY	399	88¢	$350	0xdd2e30…
06-25 07:38:05	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	300	98¢	$292	0xeba8ab…
06-18 23:28:50	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x4a00c1…
06-17 21:14:43	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	314	89¢	$280	0x6e8f5b…
06-17 19:46:23	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	86	89¢	$76	0xc64ac2…
06-17 13:35:20	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	400	66¢	$264	0x897eb6…
06-16 15:13:34	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	227	85¢	$193	0xc20eb3…
06-15 15:50:24	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0xc29555…
06-15 14:11:36	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	231	76¢	$176	0x037d5a…
06-14 21:36:19	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	71	45¢	$32	0x246dc5…
06-13 22:17:43	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0x1c0e1b…
06-13 21:27:15	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x135c73…
06-13 19:27:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xcde287…
06-13 15:15:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x41c3b3…
06-12 18:47:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x525711…
06-12 05:19:54	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	284	53¢	$150	0xb35171…