Shameless-Incarnation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$126

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

326

lifetime

Volume

$8.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 06-25 07:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

35% 100% +$126

Crypto

21% 33% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	14	$1.8K	1,163	1,163	+0	open	—	06-25 07:38
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	18	$580	762	595	+167	Yes	+$126	05-03 18:07
israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	8	$527	303	303	+0	open	—	06-09 11:36
will israel strike gaza on february 22 2026	13	$356	475	387	+88	open	—	02-23 00:58
btc updown 5m 1776131700	5	$232	151	149	+3	open	—	04-14 02:01
will israel strike gaza on february 28 2026	9	$179	199	199	+0	open	—	02-28 12:22
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$170	150	150	+0	open	—	03-09 03:38
will israel strike gaza on february 20 2026	5	$156	205	125	+80	open	—	02-20 05:35
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	7	$155	168	123	+45	open	—	02-09 21:58
will israel strike gaza on february 19 2026	7	$141	176	176	+0	open	—	02-19 17:16
will israel strike gaza on february 26 2026	3	$124	77	119	-42	open	—	02-26 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	3	$113	159	150	+9	open	—	04-26 00:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	5	$111	149	130	+20	open	—	04-25 23:53
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	4	$100	125	125	+0	open	—	04-10 20:16
will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	4	$96	188	94	+94	open	—	02-25 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	3	$94	124	118	+6	open	—	04-25 23:57
will israel strike gaza on february 12 2026	2	$92	62	62	+0	open	—	02-13 11:35
will israel strike gaza on february 10 2026	4	$92	72	72	+0	open	—	02-13 03:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$90	104	99	+5	open	—	04-26 00:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$89	90	90	+0	open	—	06-13 19:27
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?	4	$87	88	88	+0	open	—	04-08 10:41
will israel strike gaza on february 6 2026	3	$86	60	60	+0	open	—	02-06 00:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$86	88	84	+4	open	—	04-26 00:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$84	71	68	+4	open	—	04-26 13:18
btc updown 5m 1776135300	2	$82	49	48	+1	open	—	04-14 03:00
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	4	$76	137	137	+0	open	—	03-29 16:04
will israel strike gaza on february 14 2026	5	$71	88	88	+0	open	—	02-14 17:30
will israel strike gaza on february 23 2026	3	$71	95	95	+0	open	—	02-23 17:10
will israel strike gaza on march 4 2026	2	$67	79	79	+0	open	—	03-03 17:57
will israel strike gaza on february 27 2026	3	$66	50	91	-40	open	—	02-27 03:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 07:38:05	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	300	98¢	$292	0xeba8ab…
06-18 23:28:50	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	300	81¢	$243	0x4a00c1…
06-17 21:14:43	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	314	89¢	$280	0x6e8f5b…
06-17 19:46:23	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	86	89¢	$76	0xc64ac2…
06-17 13:35:20	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	400	66¢	$264	0x897eb6…
06-16 15:13:34	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	227	85¢	$193	0xc20eb3…
06-15 15:50:24	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0xc29555…
06-15 14:11:36	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	SELL	231	76¢	$176	0x037d5a…
06-14 21:36:19	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	71	45¢	$32	0x246dc5…
06-13 22:17:43	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	36	45¢	$16	0x1c0e1b…
06-13 21:27:15	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x135c73…
06-13 19:27:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xcde287…
06-13 15:15:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x41c3b3…
06-12 18:47:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	40	60¢	$24	0x525711…
06-12 05:19:54	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	284	53¢	$150	0xb35171…
06-09 11:36:22	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	58	98¢	$57	0xbf14fb…
06-09 08:25:34	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x01ae65…
06-09 08:16:40	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	106	98¢	$104	0xb4287e…
06-09 08:00:00	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xd2c8ef…
06-09 06:18:45	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x2c20f6…
06-08 20:02:25	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xcdd7c5…
06-08 15:45:36	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	No	BUY	49	65¢	$32	0x965db3…
06-08 13:44:33	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 7	No	SELL	45	98¢	$45	0x7dcb56…
06-07 14:22:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	40	30¢	$12	0xffd6ec…
06-01 12:16:49	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	160	81¢	$130	0x73edd4…
06-01 02:07:11	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x6cb029…
05-20 14:24:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0x989bf1…
05-20 14:23:45	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x3113f0…
05-20 14:22:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xc5e914…
05-11 23:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x73d631…
05-11 23:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb9420b…
05-11 02:15:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xa70b19…
05-11 02:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x676a98…
05-11 01:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xb4180e…
05-11 01:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbdeff4…
05-11 01:43:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0xb070e0…
05-11 01:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xfcba2f…
05-03 18:07:54	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	42¢	$70	0xbb2316…
04-27 02:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x629bf8…
04-27 00:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xbd5288…
04-27 00:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xcaf4a9…
04-27 00:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xe46a82…
04-27 00:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x77548d…
04-27 00:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x895d4b…
04-27 00:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x6bf469…
04-27 00:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xf18655…
04-27 00:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x1aa2eb…
04-27 00:31:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x45f11c…
04-27 00:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	49	20¢	$10	0x0a73e4…
04-27 00:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x4a7f28…
04-27 00:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe03dff…
04-27 00:10:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xbefa3b…
04-27 00:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0x5d4c2b…
04-27 00:07:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xc07cbf…
04-27 00:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x7dc45c…
04-27 00:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xc2c574…
04-26 23:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x17f5c2…
04-26 18:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	63	71¢	$45	0x71b5c5…
04-26 18:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xe1ef76…
04-26 17:55:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x621583…
04-26 17:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	23	53¢	$12	0x038b0e…
04-26 17:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	24	36¢	$9	0xb8d8d4…
04-26 17:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xa0bfd9…
04-26 17:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	33	14¢	$5	0x7266d3…
04-26 17:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x7d3a14…
04-26 16:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x14fdc0…
04-26 13:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xe142c3…
04-26 13:22:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xbe2c7e…
04-26 13:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	68	95¢	$64	0x9189a9…
04-26 13:16:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xe01c36…
04-26 00:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x947cce…
04-26 00:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x0c5945…
04-26 00:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x254a19…
04-26 00:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0x782493…
04-26 00:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x80574b…
04-26 00:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x43fc58…
04-26 00:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	84	66¢	$56	0xa0b92d…
04-26 00:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0xd52910…
04-26 00:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7ae86e…
04-26 00:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	106	28¢	$30	0x42e189…
04-26 00:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x0da697…
04-26 00:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x162ef6…
04-26 00:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	206	6¢	$12	0x6c7fa7…
04-26 00:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x8922cd…
04-26 00:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	38	20¢	$7	0x04306e…
04-26 00:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x1219df…
04-26 00:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	150	49¢	$73	0xcd46b5…
04-26 00:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x2eb919…
04-26 00:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x10fb47…
04-26 00:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0xcc7014…
04-26 00:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x11c920…
04-26 00:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0xa61541…
04-26 00:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	99	61¢	$60	0xfa1aa0…
04-26 00:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	104	29¢	$30	0xfc2060…
04-25 23:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	118	46¢	$54	0x80555d…
04-25 23:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x3cbf74…
04-25 23:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	88	34¢	$30	0xe895f7…
04-25 23:53:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	47	33¢	$15	0x53641c…
04-25 23:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x9a6cea…
04-25 23:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	83	56¢	$46	0xdfa7e5…