Several-Pass — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

28.5%

Resolved

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$14.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$227

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 07-22 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

51% 40% $-19

Politics

35% — —

Crypto

13% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No		+131	$130	99¢	$129	$-1	06-27 02:50
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No		+111	$83	88¢	$98	+$15	06-13 07:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	28	$2.1K	4,690	4,399	+291	open	—	04-21 12:00
spy up or down on april 21 2026	85	$1.5K	2,463	2,378	+84	open	—	04-21 11:03
spx up or down on april 21 2026	41	$1.2K	1,900	2,100	-200	open	—	04-21 11:01
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	27	$1.1K	8,469	8,469	+0	open	—	07-22 19:33
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	14	$1.1K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-22 14:36
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	15	$801	1,253	1,253	+0	open	—	07-22 11:18
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	32	$790	1,613	1,613	+0	open	—	04-21 08:39
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	14	$703	710	710	+0	Up	$-35	05-06 08:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$627	878	0	+878	open	—	05-06 10:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$498	0	500	-500	open	—	06-03 02:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	1	$480	500	0	+500	open	—	05-06 09:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	3	$461	496	0	+496	open	—	05-06 09:13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	6	$441	1,658	1,658	+0	open	—	06-03 07:05
will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	2	$400	401	0	+401	open	—	01-28 16:51
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	18	$382	1,300	1,300	+0	Up	$-62	05-06 09:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	7	$378	3,779	3,779	+0	open	—	06-03 05:45
iran full airspace closure by august 15	8	$334	400	400	+0	open	—	07-22 11:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?	15	$301	739	118	+621	Yes	+$74	05-06 09:00
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	6	$258	300	300	+0	open	—	07-22 07:13
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$212	0	213	-213	open	—	06-27 18:30
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$174	202	0	+202	open	—	02-27 11:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?	7	$148	370	570	-200	No	+$17	05-06 08:58
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	1	$130	131	0	+131	open	—	06-27 02:50
will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	4	$122	300	300	+0	open	—	07-22 12:16
spy closes above 710 on april 21 2026	2	$92	100	98	+2	open	—	04-21 07:02
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	1	$83	111	0	+111	open	—	06-13 07:41
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	9	$39	516	905	-390	Up	$-13	05-06 10:15
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1	$26	8,829	0	+8,829	open	—	02-27 11:12
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$8	2,057	2,057	+0	open	—	04-08 09:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	2	$4	10	10	+0	open	—	06-03 07:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 19:33:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	576	4¢	$22	0xaf0567…
07-22 19:21:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	500	4¢	$20	0xad834c…
07-22 19:20:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	185	4¢	$7	0x31b4c0…
07-22 19:17:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x53add7…
07-22 19:17:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x7a9b2e…
07-22 19:17:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x08a08b…
07-22 18:52:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$39	0x6a3262…
07-22 18:49:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	3,705	4¢	$148	0x2dcb0c…
07-22 17:14:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	3,000	6¢	$180	0xc7367f…
07-22 15:18:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	600	7¢	$42	0x2fed6a…
07-22 14:51:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1,200	8¢	$96	0x17185b…
07-22 14:36:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	400	44¢	$176	0x13cd20…
07-22 13:24:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	669	9¢	$60	0x1f2869…
07-22 12:57:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	600	8¢	$48	0x4fd24f…
07-22 12:57:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	400	33¢	$132	0x5c3bb6…
07-22 12:16:55	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	SELL	121	20¢	$24	0xa3f236…
07-22 12:16:52	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	SELL	29	20¢	$6	0x396d13…
07-22 12:03:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	489	31¢	$152	0xc8cc23…
07-22 11:27:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	548	8¢	$44	0xec2285…
07-22 11:25:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x919363…
07-22 11:25:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0x14546d…
07-22 11:18:33	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0xe73ce4…
07-22 11:15:15	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	101	41¢	$41	0xbb4d20…
07-22 11:14:22	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	200	35¢	$70	0x64408b…
07-22 11:07:15	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	99	42¢	$42	0xac106a…
07-22 10:58:10	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	253	34¢	$86	0xebf35f…
07-22 10:37:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	257	9¢	$23	0xbac9e6…
07-22 10:34:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x89d266…
07-22 10:20:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$1	0x997c14…
07-22 10:20:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0x35f4b1…
07-22 10:09:18	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	250	32¢	$80	0x633be8…
07-22 10:07:34	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x92cf9f…
07-22 10:02:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	369	9¢	$33	0xed9ec9…
07-22 09:54:46	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	200	41¢	$82	0x54915b…
07-22 09:54:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	400	32¢	$128	0x399ba6…
07-22 09:45:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	600	9¢	$54	0xe6fdbc…
07-22 09:37:54	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0xa43121…
07-22 09:37:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	287	31¢	$89	0x3dc5f6…
07-22 09:37:40	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	75	41¢	$31	0x02e9ca…
07-22 09:37:16	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	312	32¢	$100	0xd8d085…
07-22 09:31:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	600	8¢	$48	0xf82440…
07-22 09:30:18	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0x6001c8…
07-22 09:28:54	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xd354e7…
07-22 09:28:48	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	200	43¢	$86	0xe49c11…
07-22 09:25:54	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	60	32¢	$19	0xc08fd2…
07-22 09:22:31	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0xdab7f0…
07-22 09:22:27	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	113	31¢	$35	0x5d51d3…
07-22 07:46:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	600	7¢	$42	0x88cc69…
07-22 07:33:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	600	8¢	$48	0x39490f…
07-22 07:13:46	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	123	43¢	$53	0x40c86e…
07-22 06:20:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x252207…
07-22 06:20:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0xd23db2…
07-22 06:20:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	13	34¢	$5	0xa9967f…
07-22 06:20:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	19	34¢	$7	0x1e2022…
07-22 06:19:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	SELL	611	35¢	$214	0x43f599…
07-22 05:48:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	23	34¢	$8	0x832ab7…
07-22 05:44:28	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	394	28¢	$110	0xafe63c…
07-22 05:32:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1ce5fd…
07-22 05:32:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xce5f0c…
07-22 05:19:48	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x184355…
07-22 05:04:31	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	No	BUY	300	21¢	$63	0xd59043…
07-22 05:03:15	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	38	43¢	$17	0x0267ae…
07-22 05:02:49	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x48ebea…
07-22 04:49:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	600	8¢	$48	0xb280e1…
07-22 04:45:04	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	93	43¢	$40	0x034eb9…
07-22 04:43:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0x00bd6a…
07-22 04:31:27	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0x5892b2…
07-22 04:30:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	111	34¢	$38	0xff6a6d…
07-22 03:47:03	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	SELL	21	43¢	$9	0x31b9ff…
07-22 03:46:27	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	Yes	BUY	300	43¢	$129	0x72b050…
07-22 03:40:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	600	9¢	$54	0x2a3a1a…
06-27 18:30:56	Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	213	100¢	$212	0x7211e0…
06-27 02:50:47	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0xdaf2dc…
06-13 07:41:12	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	BUY	111	75¢	$83	0x23d619…
06-03 07:06:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x875092…
06-03 07:05:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	SELL	58	15¢	$8	0x7a86df…
06-03 05:45:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x16ce14…
06-03 05:22:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	BUY	58	14¢	$8	0x9b360e…
06-03 05:19:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	SELL	1,340	5¢	$67	0x5ebe75…
06-03 05:17:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	SELL	570	5¢	$28	0xd9269e…
06-03 05:15:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	SELL	150	5¢	$8	0x9e0537…
06-03 05:09:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	BUY	1,500	5¢	$75	0x166439…
06-03 04:23:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	SELL	800	14¢	$112	0xe3f1b6…
06-03 04:23:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	SELL	1,709	5¢	$85	0xa22774…
06-03 03:52:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	SELL	94	13¢	$12	0x952994…
06-03 03:52:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	SELL	706	13¢	$92	0x70e97e…
06-03 03:51:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x18ab9a…
06-03 02:50:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	BUY	1,600	13¢	$208	0x3549e7…
06-03 02:47:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?	Yes	BUY	2,279	5¢	$114	0xa782da…
06-03 02:43:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x9a73b4…
05-06 10:51:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	178	73¢	$130	0x37e9ca…
05-06 10:15:18	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	700	1¢	$7	0xe7d4b1…
05-06 09:45:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	700	71¢	$497	0xbcfa7e…
05-06 09:17:50	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xb9b0de…
05-06 09:13:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xb78f11…
05-06 09:12:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x780455…
05-06 09:09:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x91d66a…
05-06 09:08:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	196	93¢	$182	0x4b7586…
05-06 09:02:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0xe96240…
05-06 09:01:00	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	253	8¢	$20	0x6f90c4…