Obvious-Rumor-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$299

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-20 01:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

55% 0% $-13

Politics

45% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+20	$10	99¢	$19	+$9	06-22 19:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$20	152	+152	open	—	04-12 17:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$10	20	+20	open	—	06-22 19:12
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	1	$10	53	+53	open	—	04-12 16:44
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	1	$10	21	+21	open	—	04-23 20:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$10	93	+93	open	—	04-12 17:00
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	1	$10	30	+30	open	—	04-12 17:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	1	$10	15	+15	open	—	06-22 19:12
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	1	$10	71	+71	open	—	04-12 16:55
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	1	$10	46	+46	No	$-10	04-12 16:46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	91	+91	open	—	06-15 01:47
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	1	$10	22	+22	open	—	04-14 12:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	1	$10	45	+45	open	—	04-14 12:44
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	1	$10	48	+48	open	—	04-12 17:02
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	13	+13	open	—	04-12 16:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$10	12	+12	open	—	04-14 12:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$6	31	+31	open	—	06-15 01:43
will wti reach 110 in july 2026	1	$5	80	+80	open	—	06-29 12:12
will wti reach 100 in july 2026	1	$5	62	+62	open	—	06-29 12:12
will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	1	$5	12	+12	open	—	06-22 12:02
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	1	$5	25	+25	open	—	07-15 00:28
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	1	$5	294	+294	open	—	04-12 17:22
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	1	$5	25	+25	open	—	04-23 20:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$5	12	+12	open	—	05-01 16:37
will wti reach 90 in july 2026	1	$5	25	+25	open	—	06-29 12:12
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	38	+38	open	—	04-18 17:15
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	1	$5	31	+31	open	—	07-14 19:55
will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	1	$5	43	+43	open	—	06-22 12:02
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$5	42	+42	open	—	06-21 18:42
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$5	29	+29	open	—	06-15 01:52
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	1	$5	76	+76	open	—	07-14 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 01:45:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x00829c…
07-20 01:45:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa3c460…
07-15 00:28:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x744dc6…
07-14 21:09:04	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	232	1¢	$3	0x94c741…
07-14 21:08:55	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	159	2¢	$3	0xcfcb26…
07-14 21:08:53	will wti reach 115 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	84	4¢	$3	0xce5275…
07-14 19:56:04	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	76	7¢	$5	0xfbf5bd…
07-14 19:55:52	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x816cf5…
07-14 17:58:08	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 24 2026 20260713152715081 211	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x801745…
07-14 17:55:37	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 17 2026 20260708165455692	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa84c59…
06-29 12:12:43	will wti reach 110 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0x248ab6…
06-29 12:12:38	will wti reach 100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x80f15e…
06-29 12:12:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x94cc91…
06-22 19:12:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x1e36be…
06-22 19:12:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x6beb23…
06-22 12:02:35	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xb492f9…
06-22 12:02:14	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x343897…
06-21 21:56:43	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	Yes	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x6079cf…
06-21 21:56:29	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe6f960…
06-21 21:56:26	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x48765c…
06-21 21:51:20	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9a8233…
06-21 18:42:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xf7f528…
06-15 02:01:01	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x41a39d…
06-15 02:00:54	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x9e1511…
06-15 01:52:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xf20968…
06-15 01:47:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xa5a173…
06-15 01:46:04	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x9beda9…
06-15 01:43:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xc161b6…
06-15 01:42:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2c0663…
06-08 14:59:21	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x1f3b8b…
05-26 18:50:57	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0xa1e4e3…
05-23 01:32:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0xa66842…
05-22 22:43:07	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xb753ba…
05-22 16:14:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x9b1961…
05-22 16:14:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x24e7bb…
05-22 16:14:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x213a2b…
05-16 16:38:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6209a5…
05-16 16:35:06	Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x3f132d…
05-05 15:25:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x245e38…
05-04 17:41:34	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xac2d36…
05-03 00:16:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb41157…
05-02 18:44:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb219b8…
05-01 16:57:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x12dac4…
05-01 16:52:56	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x984c82…
05-01 16:37:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xc7ea60…
05-01 16:37:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xd8e446…
05-01 16:36:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x7d9e68…
05-01 16:36:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x5acfa7…
05-01 16:36:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x433d3c…
04-25 01:17:34	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xb33ded…
04-23 20:18:12	Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0xbda7e5…
04-23 20:16:58	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xc42c9a…
04-23 20:08:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xd3d409…
04-18 17:15:08	Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xea600d…
04-18 17:09:28	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x696dec…
04-14 22:00:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x096f30…
04-14 22:00:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6d593b…
04-14 22:00:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xba87c5…
04-14 22:00:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x10ecbe…
04-14 22:00:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x5348fb…
04-14 22:00:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc6d409…
04-14 12:44:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x028bbf…
04-14 12:44:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xb0da68…
04-14 12:43:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x0a9108…
04-12 17:22:17	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0x45d446…
04-12 17:06:33	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x4605f2…
04-12 17:02:41	will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xc9c7c1…
04-12 17:01:37	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x49798b…
04-12 17:00:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	93	11¢	$10	0xa5da67…
04-12 16:55:27	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x3f4d6c…
04-12 16:54:07	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x0073ed…
04-12 16:46:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x9a185f…
04-12 16:44:45	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x9e0bfb…
04-12 16:44:11	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0x27d981…