Healthy-Severity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$367

Unrealized P&L

-$278

Hit rate

67.5%

Resolved

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$4.16K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$183

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 10-24 00:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

52% 42% -$60

Crypto

25% 20% -$50

Politics

23% 67% -$257

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+4,803	$321	3¢	$122	-$198	10-22 16:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+30	-$50	96¢	$29	+$79	10-22 11:37
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	+167	$32	14¢	$23	-$9	10-24 00:43
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	+100	$58	5¢	$5	-$53	10-07 10:07
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	+200	$100	2¢	$4	-$96	10-04 03:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$955	601	601	+0	No	+$221	05-29 01:43
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	56	$579	6,363	1,560	+4,803	open	—	10-22 16:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$315	16,726	0	+16,726	Yes	-$315	06-17 20:09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	10	$309	6,500	6,500	+0	No	+$69	06-03 05:47
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	24	$302	2,772	2,772	+0	No	+$13	06-03 11:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	4	$249	330	330	+0	Yes	+$45	05-29 11:36
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	14	$240	930	200	+730	No	-$29	09-24 11:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$220	250	220	+30	open	—	10-22 11:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	16	$176	4,232	0	+4,232	No	-$176	09-11 01:04
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	4	$144	172	0	+172	No	+$28	09-11 10:04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$108	206	206	+0	open	—	06-15 09:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	1	$100	200	0	+200	open	—	10-04 03:26
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	12	$91	526	0	+526	No	-$91	10-23 06:28
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	2	$58	100	0	+100	open	—	10-07 10:07
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	2	$55	163	0	+163	No	-$55	06-05 08:30
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	7	$51	2,001	0	+2,001	No	-$51	09-11 03:49
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	2	$38	100	100	+0	open	—	06-17 00:23
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	2	$32	167	0	+167	open	—	10-24 00:43
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	2	$32	50	0	+50	Yes	+$18	09-05 19:41
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	3	$26	20	20	-0	Yes	+$7	10-23 08:54
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	4	$26	200	184	+16	No	+$6	10-04 23:59
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$22	150	0	+150	No	-$22	09-14 14:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$15	100	0	+100	Yes	-$15	05-27 20:59
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 18-24?	2	$7	50	0	+50	No	-$7	05-19 02:59
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24?	1	$5	150	0	+150	No	-$5	05-19 02:55
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	10	$5	250	0	+250	No	-$5	10-11 19:03
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$2	530	0	+530	No	-$2	09-12 19:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 00:43:20	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xb8d372…
10-24 00:42:36	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	154	19¢	$30	0x234fe8…
10-23 08:54:36	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xb45de8…
10-23 06:28:47	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	88	15¢	$13	0xa44f49…
10-23 06:28:47	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	58	15¢	$9	0x1ff1a5…
10-23 01:14:56	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x7ac973…
10-23 01:14:33	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x9a26d7…
10-23 01:13:57	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	58	16¢	$9	0xde39fd…
10-23 01:13:56	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	52	16¢	$8	0xb53861…
10-23 01:12:57	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	53	15¢	$8	0xc8db26…
10-22 16:49:18	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x42d1fd…
10-22 16:31:26	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x538716…
10-22 11:37:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	90¢	$14	0xa97095…
10-18 23:01:53	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$1	0x247a82…
10-18 18:52:30	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xb682c4…
10-15 12:14:49	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xb6c34b…
10-15 12:14:22	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x06f28c…
10-15 12:13:52	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf9306f…
10-15 12:10:25	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xdfbd29…
10-15 12:09:44	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x27f095…
10-15 07:59:31	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xb65fa9…
10-11 19:03:19	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xd4dbf0…
10-11 18:48:04	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xdd9554…
10-11 14:40:06	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcdb243…
10-11 10:40:29	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x9a5572…
10-11 09:32:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xb8c6a3…
10-11 09:32:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xaa19c7…
10-11 09:32:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8e6646…
10-11 09:32:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$0	0x8645fa…
10-11 09:32:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	2¢	$1	0x389411…
10-11 07:12:47	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x79bfab…
10-10 08:01:36	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf6ef39…
10-10 08:00:57	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0xbf558f…
10-10 07:59:45	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x51024c…
10-09 08:45:16	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xb3f3d6…
10-08 12:44:12	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0x8afa92…
10-07 10:07:47	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	98	58¢	$57	0xf635c4…
10-07 09:39:53	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xeb71e9…
10-05 04:34:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x3f5af7…
10-04 23:59:13	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	84	7¢	$6	0x90aecf…
10-04 22:16:22	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x9ed189…
10-04 03:26:56	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x90d14e…
10-03 09:34:08	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xd19950…
10-03 07:37:32	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	2¢	$1	0x9013f5…
10-02 22:27:30	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	154	5¢	$8	0xb8fc66…
10-02 22:11:50	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0xac62ab…
10-01 17:30:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	60	75¢	$45	0x126daa…
09-29 18:09:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	125	48¢	$60	0x75d662…
09-28 01:41:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0xcc86bc…
09-25 14:41:15	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$2	0xb0a4bf…
09-24 11:53:33	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0xa24794…
09-24 03:51:44	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x4217f5…
09-24 03:45:27	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x74551f…
09-24 03:38:17	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	281	16¢	$44	0x66f655…
09-21 20:18:52	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	SELL	35	53¢	$19	0xfaac90…
09-21 20:18:51	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	SELL	165	53¢	$87	0x1e29c7…
09-17 06:57:13	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x930712…
09-17 06:37:30	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x738bbf…
09-17 06:37:30	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x322355…
09-14 14:23:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0x26ddcc…
09-13 17:11:36	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x24c476…
09-12 19:40:04	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	530	0¢	$2	0xec22c3…
09-12 18:20:09	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0xddde25…
09-11 17:58:40	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	94	9¢	$8	0xf4eb8a…
09-11 17:17:07	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x81c6be…
09-11 10:04:04	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x2fa7d0…
09-11 10:03:25	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	54	84¢	$46	0x33008b…
09-11 10:02:01	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xe9cd81…
09-11 10:01:24	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	44	84¢	$37	0xd7a3ad…
09-11 03:49:19	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$10	0x30675c…
09-11 01:04:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0xd18874…
09-10 14:37:10	will bitcoin reach 90k in september 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe15d15…
09-10 03:48:07	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	3¢	$1	0x8288d5…
09-10 03:34:46	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0x988ffc…
09-10 02:12:42	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	195	3¢	$5	0xcfb50f…
09-10 02:12:40	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	66	3¢	$2	0x0d7fef…
09-10 01:57:10	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x3b54be…
09-08 17:34:24	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,001	3¢	$30	0xd840c4…
09-08 13:55:33	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	120	13¢	$16	0xb79fc7…
09-08 11:05:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	59	15¢	$9	0xd1f5c5…
09-08 07:58:07	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	38	15¢	$6	0x74b7fa…
09-08 07:13:13	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0xa9b862…
09-07 08:18:33	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?	Yes	BUY	160	19¢	$30	0xb69ed9…
09-05 19:41:25	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x8d606d…
09-05 19:37:54	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x50f040…
07-02 00:54:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	150	4¢	$6	0x97f2de…
07-02 00:36:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	605	4¢	$22	0x5f0b1f…
07-01 20:26:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd13f4c…
06-29 04:05:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	451	4¢	$19	0x2b9fd4…
06-29 03:43:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0x38b291…
06-29 03:24:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	130	4¢	$5	0xe5fcc7…
06-29 03:03:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x93784c…
06-29 03:02:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$13	0xf4ea42…
06-29 03:02:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	176	4¢	$7	0x44a357…
06-27 21:40:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	870	5¢	$40	0x3f9936…
06-27 15:54:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	730	5¢	$35	0xd57f50…
06-27 01:29:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	87	5¢	$5	0xe11af8…
06-27 01:28:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	218	5¢	$11	0x0225cc…
06-27 01:21:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x797da8…
06-27 01:17:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	154	5¢	$8	0x8f2643…