Excellent-Garlic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$205

Unrealized P&L

-$84

Hit rate

62.0%

Resolved

Trades

158

lifetime

Volume

$32.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$203

Open exposure

$893

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-14 14:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

48% 60% -$219

Other

28% 67% +$1,079

Sports

15% 50% +$229

Tech

9% 0% -$884

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+4,014	$938	22¢	$879	-$59	05-25 22:09
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+250	$50	6¢	$14	-$36	05-25 22:10
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+0	-$11	10¢	$0	+$11	05-12 15:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	35	$2.7K	8,083	8,083	+0	Yes	-$732	09-11 14:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$2.3K	1,389	1,300	+89	No	+$386	05-07 01:02
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$2.2K	1,282	1,244	+38	Yes	+$272	04-07 22:23
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	5	$2.2K	5,250	5,250	+0	No	-$31	01-23 21:25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$2.1K	6,234	2,220	+4,014	open	—	05-25 22:09
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,467	1,467	+0	No	+$27	05-03 18:08
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.0K	6,210	3,108	+3,101	No	+$14	07-01 13:29
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	5	$1.7K	1,059	1,059	+0	No	-$198	05-14 20:04
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	8	$1.6K	2,357	2,357	+0	Yes	+$551	01-15 08:50
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	4	$1.3K	3,027	2,528	+500	No	+$1	01-25 14:53
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	7	$1.2K	2,203	2,203	+0	Yes	+$171	01-21 18:11
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$1.0K	581	581	+0	Yes	+$36	02-05 15:59
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	7	$1.0K	3,652	3,652	+0	open	—	05-12 15:11
Chirayu Rana fired?	2	$1000	1,941	0	+1,941	cancelled	-$29	05-01 18:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	4	$978	1,118	1,118	+0	No	-$22	05-03 05:01
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	4	$814	449	449	+0	Chicago White Sox	+$14	05-03 03:11
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$769	2,066	2,066	+0	No	-$231	02-07 14:10
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	3	$722	10,667	10,667	+0	No	-$78	01-30 02:04
76ers vs. Celtics	4	$689	664	664	+0	76ers	+$189	05-03 00:07
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$370	357	357	+0	No	-$30	05-19 15:38
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	5	$314	1,757	1,757	+0	Yes	+$94	01-23 21:22
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	2	$289	556	556	+0	Spurs	+$89	05-05 12:56
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$264	1,062	1,062	+0	No	-$136	02-07 14:10
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$252	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$52	01-23 21:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$227	182	182	+0	No	+$27	05-31 06:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$219	270	270	+0	No	+$19	07-29 20:18
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	2	$206	143	143	+0	No	+$6	05-19 15:39
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$187	1,136	1,136	+0	Yes	-$12	05-03 05:00
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$181	283	283	+0	No	+$3	01-15 08:50
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	2	$180	132	132	+0	Yes	+$80	01-23 21:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-14 14:21:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	39¢	$78	0xc884dd…
09-11 14:11:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	2,829	11¢	$311	0xb457c2…
09-08 05:07:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	5,254	13¢	$666	0xd078e9…
09-04 00:32:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x5ef3b7…
09-04 00:32:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	486	25¢	$122	0xab52ab…
09-04 00:32:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	500	25¢	$125	0xe0b592…
09-04 00:31:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	500	25¢	$125	0x756459…
09-04 00:31:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	357	24¢	$86	0x4baa35…
09-04 00:31:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0x80b2a6…
09-04 00:30:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	126	24¢	$30	0x7a52c3…
09-04 00:30:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	195	24¢	$47	0x1c039b…
09-04 00:30:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	51	24¢	$12	0x4a167b…
09-04 00:29:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	730	23¢	$168	0x46efef…
08-19 16:11:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	1¢	$12	0x2331d4…
08-19 16:10:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	333	2¢	$8	0x530013…
08-11 15:15:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1,014	20¢	$203	0xe57c35…
08-11 15:08:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x03d0ae…
08-11 14:08:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	262	20¢	$52	0x3ededd…
08-11 12:05:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x0945d0…
08-11 12:05:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0x044211…
08-11 12:05:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xab57b8…
08-11 10:27:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x4db827…
08-11 10:27:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x92e456…
08-11 09:02:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	83	21¢	$17	0xfa6ee1…
08-11 09:02:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x9ad15e…
08-11 07:30:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	40	21¢	$8	0x8ad632…
08-11 07:30:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xffa711…
08-10 18:29:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	127	21¢	$27	0x3f0420…
08-10 18:16:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x6d0f47…
08-10 16:12:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x0dd2ba…
08-10 14:57:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x71f25d…
08-10 14:52:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xa5df44…
08-10 14:51:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xac486c…
08-10 14:51:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xc4bf73…
08-10 14:38:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x77a955…
08-10 14:09:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	184	20¢	$37	0x385edf…
08-10 14:00:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	7¢	$105	0x075284…
08-10 14:00:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x073bc4…
08-10 01:06:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	637	19¢	$121	0x3267ff…
08-10 01:05:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	1,384	17¢	$235	0x4ed06d…
08-10 01:03:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	10¢	$33	0xebdc45…
07-29 20:18:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	270	44¢	$119	0x4d666e…
07-29 18:13:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x2da39b…
07-29 13:27:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	109	75¢	$82	0xb1a132…
07-01 13:29:07	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,108	33¢	$1,013	0x841a78…
06-14 04:28:12	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6,210	16¢	$1,000	0xb6033e…
05-31 06:28:37	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	SELL	167	17¢	$29	0x8edebc…
05-31 06:28:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	182	70¢	$127	0x266702…
05-25 22:10:19	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0x2c58b7…
05-25 22:09:27	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,045	24¢	$500	0x627fde…
05-19 15:39:23	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	143	74¢	$106	0x508964…
05-19 15:38:46	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	179	40¢	$71	0x26de27…
05-19 15:10:43	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	227	44¢	$100	0xd8f767…
05-19 15:09:15	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xd963e8…
05-14 20:04:55	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	SELL	1,059	71¢	$757	0x7bd7ad…
05-12 15:11:07	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,811	14¢	$254	0xff912c…
05-12 14:54:14	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,578	14¢	$221	0x020d3e…
05-12 06:41:10	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xbecaab…
05-12 06:30:40	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xaa235e…
05-12 06:29:44	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	34	91¢	$31	0xe4604f…
05-12 06:22:57	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x8a5be0…
05-12 06:18:10	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	466	91¢	$424	0xef8fee…
05-12 06:12:00	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	248	14¢	$35	0x290b70…
05-12 06:10:43	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,220	25¢	$562	0x408834…
05-07 18:48:01	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	3,706	24¢	$900	0x60f9ed…
05-07 14:11:40	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0xff1b72…
05-07 14:10:56	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2,718	15¢	$400	0x406c27…
05-07 14:09:48	Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x06bcfc…
05-07 01:02:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,300	100¢	$1,297	0xa251ae…
05-05 12:56:18	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Wolves	SELL	556	34¢	$189	0xc4f527…
05-05 04:02:06	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	SELL	219	18¢	$39	0x5344ad…
05-05 04:02:00	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	2,778	1¢	$19	0xe463a8…
05-05 00:33:12	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Wolves	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0xf58405…
05-05 00:32:44	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers	76ers	BUY	219	46¢	$100	0x8f1fba…
05-03 18:08:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,467	70¢	$1,027	0x05d533…
05-03 14:56:04	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	2,778	4¢	$100	0x79b7a7…
05-03 05:01:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	86	40¢	$34	0x2d0a0c…
05-03 05:00:24	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	1,136	8¢	$87	0xdf9843…
05-03 03:26:38	Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x3417dc…
05-03 03:25:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xc4a771…
05-03 03:12:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	554	72¢	$400	0x41c129…
05-03 03:11:54	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago White Sox	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0xa9ff77…
05-03 03:09:40	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago White Sox	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x1baefb…
05-03 03:08:28	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago White Sox	SELL	300	89¢	$266	0x66c80a…
05-03 03:05:52	Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres	Chicago White Sox	BUY	449	89¢	$400	0xf23b26…
05-03 00:26:38	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	179	55¢	$98	0x71b98e…
05-03 00:08:34	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x245d6f…
05-03 00:08:04	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	1,136	9¢	$100	0x65ca5e…
05-03 00:07:18	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	SELL	664	66¢	$439	0xc2e158…
05-02 22:23:00	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	513	39¢	$200	0x59093a…
05-02 21:48:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x461675…
05-02 19:00:42	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	121	33¢	$40	0xac72b3…
05-02 18:58:08	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	161	56¢	$90	0xeee73f…
05-02 18:57:56	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x1df8f4…
05-02 18:57:38	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xaddc6e…
05-02 18:56:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	SELL	232	43¢	$100	0x5d4047…
05-02 18:55:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	746	67¢	$500	0x2427ec…
05-02 05:11:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x0dd7f8…
05-02 05:08:04	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	483	21¢	$100	0xb7badc…
05-02 05:07:46	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	935	11¢	$100	0xc6374e…