Complicated-Yard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$142

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.4%

Resolved

Trades

311

lifetime

Volume

$91.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$293

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 05-19 07:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

64% 100% +$321

Other

32% 100% +$187

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-651

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	39	$12.1K	9,484	4,619	+4,864	open	—	04-30 15:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	12	$7.5K	3,950	3,950	+0	open	—	04-25 21:14
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	18	$7.2K	9,945	9,945	+0	open	—	05-17 11:09
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	25	$7.0K	10,906	11,761	-855	open	—	05-14 02:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$6.4K	3,805	3,805	+0	open	—	04-24 16:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	18	$6.2K	6,345	0	+6,345	No	+$138	05-03 15:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	26	$5.5K	4,145	4,600	-456	open	—	05-13 17:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	8	$4.8K	2,638	2,674	-36	open	—	04-26 21:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	2	$4.6K	4,718	0	+4,718	open	—	04-30 15:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	12	$4.1K	1,811	2,476	-665	open	—	04-26 20:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	7	$2.9K	1,849	1,849	+0	open	—	04-25 21:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	2	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-26 11:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	12	$2.6K	1,570	1,570	+0	open	—	04-26 21:25
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	6	$2.3K	3,215	3,215	+0	open	—	04-21 14:47
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	13	$2.2K	2,859	156	+2,703	open	—	05-19 07:58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	3	$2.1K	2,286	0	+2,286	No	+$184	05-07 08:46
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	6	$1.5K	3,281	0	+3,281	open	—	04-13 11:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	05-15 13:47
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	16	$731	610	601	+9	open	—	04-24 17:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	5	$682	800	0	+800	open	—	05-03 21:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	1	$556	572	0	+572	open	—	04-27 10:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$521	700	0	+700	Yes	+$179	05-10 08:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	1	$508	514	0	+514	open	—	04-27 09:29
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$504	602	602	+0	open	—	04-13 11:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	1	$500	509	0	+509	open	—	04-30 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	3	$432	514	0	+514	open	—	04-27 09:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	1	$426	432	0	+432	open	—	04-27 08:59
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	4	$416	462	462	+0	open	—	04-23 07:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$411	427	0	+427	open	—	04-27 06:49
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	7	$407	294	514	-220	open	—	05-13 12:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-19 07:58:03	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0x312e82…
05-17 11:09:46	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	3,554	2¢	$83	0xe5fff8…
05-17 10:40:55	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,923	3¢	$50	0x52f211…
05-17 10:40:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	192	3¢	$5	0x3b7313…
05-17 10:36:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	769	3¢	$20	0x0f7af3…
05-17 10:35:40	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	410	3¢	$11	0x45b1b6…
05-17 10:35:21	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,923	3¢	$50	0x001b06…
05-17 10:35:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x607c47…
05-17 10:34:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	385	3¢	$10	0x959354…
05-17 10:32:50	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x586fb8…
05-17 10:32:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	192	3¢	$5	0xfb1753…
05-17 10:27:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	337	3¢	$9	0x6a63e7…
05-17 10:24:25	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	216	3¢	$6	0x153570…
05-17 09:46:14	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	SELL	146	85¢	$124	0x1b5dd8…
05-15 13:52:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6,117	70¢	$4,282	0x81ed2a…
05-15 13:52:18	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x01e929…
05-15 13:52:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	492	70¢	$344	0x85b508…
05-15 13:51:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	76	70¢	$53	0x28538b…
05-15 13:49:29	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2,173	69¢	$1,500	0x61fdff…
05-15 13:47:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	888	67¢	$598	0x9331ab…
05-15 13:47:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	600	100¢	$598	0x07cb21…
05-14 02:02:08	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	11,761	17¢	$1,971	0x636390…
05-13 17:04:13	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3,155	32¢	$1,000	0xac5e23…
05-13 17:03:31	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,852	27¢	$500	0xa5c3ac…
05-13 17:02:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	2,300	54¢	$1,233	0x19755a…
05-13 14:14:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	600	37¢	$222	0x5a6e8a…
05-13 13:58:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	944	57¢	$538	0x1bcad5…
05-13 13:50:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0xcfdfa5…
05-13 13:46:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,300	57¢	$741	0x79ffbd…
05-13 12:55:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x71d226…
05-13 12:43:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	13	57¢	$7	0xba3047…
05-13 12:40:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0xd7c892…
05-13 12:02:38	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	SELL	514	47¢	$239	0x0e6ec9…
05-13 11:47:19	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	151	38¢	$57	0x74cad6…
05-13 10:20:37	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	754	39¢	$294	0x77c502…
05-13 10:09:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0x6bd0f4…
05-13 10:04:52	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x43c57d…
05-13 09:57:10	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	47	39¢	$18	0x659eaa…
05-13 09:55:49	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	164	39¢	$64	0x36cf51…
05-13 09:51:21	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xfa3c85…
05-13 09:49:40	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	23	39¢	$9	0xce1029…
05-13 09:42:42	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	600	41¢	$246	0x150ce7…
05-12 01:25:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xe5f7a8…
05-12 01:20:17	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xcb2db2…
05-12 01:16:19	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	55	67¢	$37	0xafa9ef…
05-12 01:12:02	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x1276b2…
05-11 21:32:28	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xb30255…
05-11 21:31:00	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	210	74¢	$155	0x5190ea…
05-11 21:30:58	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	29	74¢	$21	0x9d0c59…
05-11 21:30:58	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x47b464…
05-11 21:30:57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	224	74¢	$166	0x011cae…
05-11 21:26:32	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xd66487…
05-11 21:23:15	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,490	74¢	$1,103	0xec5160…
05-11 21:22:45	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,414	73¢	$1,032	0xf60c39…
05-10 22:01:42	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x104d67…
05-10 21:53:55	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xbc9d8e…
05-10 21:39:21	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x4bbe05…
05-10 20:39:13	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xc0a054…
05-10 20:23:44	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0xfd617f…
05-10 19:47:09	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	57	57¢	$32	0x06f130…
05-10 08:36:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	700	74¢	$521	0x60b4de…
05-09 11:20:24	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	267	70¢	$187	0xfc564e…
05-09 11:20:01	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x18a816…
05-09 11:19:38	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	72¢	$216	0xf2dd5e…
05-09 08:04:57	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0x031d21…
05-09 07:54:06	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x310576…
05-07 22:01:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	170	52¢	$89	0x27bfc9…
05-07 21:49:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	52¢	$15	0xa51e23…
05-07 20:48:32	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x2aeb29…
05-07 20:48:25	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0xfa63e3…
05-07 20:48:06	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x5d60b5…
05-07 20:47:42	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x29a13d…
05-07 20:37:19	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	192	72¢	$139	0xb1cba6…
05-07 13:26:31	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	51	70¢	$36	0x16b7f0…
05-07 13:25:53	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	87	70¢	$61	0xa8a542…
05-07 13:19:07	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x1de39d…
05-07 08:46:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	220	92¢	$202	0xa7234f…
05-07 08:46:01	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	980	92¢	$901	0x60cabb…
05-07 08:41:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	1,086	92¢	$1,000	0xa765b2…
05-07 05:17:15	Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x0f5e92…
05-06 23:00:25	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,600	71¢	$1,136	0x1101b6…
05-06 10:50:20	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	134	25¢	$34	0x5ff91c…
05-06 09:32:32	Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xcae0f4…
05-06 07:01:06	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x9528e2…
05-05 23:29:12	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	161	81¢	$130	0x3b8992…
05-05 23:07:26	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0xdc068a…
05-05 22:46:46	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2b9786…
05-05 22:46:00	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x0389e4…
05-05 22:23:06	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0x07d322…
05-05 22:22:46	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0x290b3d…
05-05 22:08:28	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0x26354c…
05-05 22:04:20	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	115	40¢	$46	0x253f2d…
05-05 21:56:10	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x829ce8…
05-05 21:13:02	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x076152…
05-05 20:58:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	613	68¢	$417	0x3069ae…
05-05 20:57:20	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	90	30¢	$27	0xbaa04c…
05-05 20:51:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xda1e54…
05-05 20:47:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	287	68¢	$195	0xd458a7…
05-05 18:24:48	Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Yes	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0xb7fa4b…
05-05 16:30:10	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x857c31…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	30	$61.2K	611	05-29 16:12
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	29	$7.89M	14,052	05-28 15:38
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	28	$324.1K	5,601	05-28 22:22
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	28	$235.6K	17,929	05-28 19:16
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	27	$269.7K	5,253	05-29 21:01
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	27	$17.3K	4,211	05-07 02:04
(anonymous) 0x238f…3015	27	$1.46K	985	05-29 19:05
Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936	27	$633	385	05-28 21:48