Mean-Archrival-Indigence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

913

lifetime

Volume

$1.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 08-04 23:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

49% — —

Politics

41% — —

Crypto

10% 69% $-18

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	104	$128	372	356	+16	open	—	06-20 17:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	55	$80	242	248	-6	open	—	07-06 10:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	31	$72	134	120	+14	open	—	06-13 17:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	16	$46	88	83	+6	open	—	07-11 14:53
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	40	$43	85	116	-31	open	—	06-14 21:16
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	29	$38	256	256	+0	open	—	06-22 03:05
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	12	$37	45	45	+0	open	—	07-12 00:49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	39	$34	43	43	+0	open	—	06-11 17:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	18	$33	47	45	+2	open	—	06-08 04:36
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	40	$33	114	114	+0	open	—	07-22 18:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	11	$32	26	31	-5	open	—	06-14 13:00
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	24	$31	82	82	+0	open	—	07-31 19:55
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$29	33	41	-7	open	—	06-14 22:10
Iran leadership change by December 31?	7	$29	60	60	+0	open	—	07-14 00:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	5	$26	33	33	+0	open	—	06-12 02:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	8	$24	32	32	+0	open	—	06-08 04:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	7	$22	16	15	+1	open	—	06-14 21:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$21	70	70	+0	open	—	07-18 14:16
Solana Up or Down on May 7?	20	$20	39	0	+39	Down	+$2	05-06 16:57
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	17	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	07-14 07:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	8	$18	29	29	+0	open	—	07-07 18:41
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	8	$17	16	16	+0	open	—	06-06 07:00
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	9	$17	26	26	+0	open	—	06-08 08:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	7	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	06-19 14:04
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	21	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	07-13 17:51
israel closes its airspace by june 9	10	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	06-08 04:10
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	9	$14	77	64	+13	open	—	08-01 02:04
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	9	$14	59	59	+0	open	—	07-13 13:00
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	15	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-20 00:03
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	5	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-10 18:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 23:35:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	14	28¢	$4	0xf7142b…
08-04 23:30:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x12e086…
08-04 23:22:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x045092…
08-04 23:21:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x957393…
08-04 23:16:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xb35f87…
08-04 23:14:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0xc6f271…
08-04 23:14:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0xbe9716…
08-04 22:55:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x365e65…
08-04 22:55:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xf74aa6…
08-04 22:54:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x95ca13…
08-04 22:54:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xccb691…
08-03 02:45:21	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	1	54¢	$0	0x0b6cfe…
08-03 02:40:27	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x2a1a2e…
08-03 02:26:51	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x7912f8…
08-03 02:20:27	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xe34107…
08-03 01:53:39	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x4c42b3…
08-03 01:51:05	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x5bde33…
08-02 23:21:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x4f35ec…
08-02 23:12:20	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x06e279…
08-02 22:50:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0xf7eb3c…
08-02 22:50:44	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x318fea…
08-02 22:36:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xc6b447…
08-02 22:36:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x08120b…
08-02 22:29:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xd6c8a7…
08-02 22:03:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xe23b75…
08-02 21:49:35	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0xad1383…
08-02 21:49:35	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x70f1c5…
08-02 21:48:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa41105…
08-02 14:17:15	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xc45ad2…
08-01 21:45:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xbb0f5a…
08-01 21:45:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x863be1…
08-01 21:45:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x7e34eb…
08-01 21:45:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x9cf584…
08-01 21:45:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x65fe74…
08-01 21:45:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xed5333…
08-01 21:45:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x9aaecc…
08-01 21:45:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x7689ed…
08-01 21:45:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1	37¢	$1	0x85645f…
08-01 21:31:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x22f23d…
08-01 17:40:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0xfb4b2a…
08-01 17:32:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0x7954b4…
08-01 17:10:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x3d4d60…
08-01 17:00:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0x23144f…
08-01 16:58:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xd57727…
08-01 16:56:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x715f83…
08-01 16:56:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0xec68ca…
08-01 16:55:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x9584f0…
08-01 16:55:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0xfb6fde…
08-01 16:51:47	will wti dip to 85 in august 2026	No	SELL	17	9¢	$1	0xb25e1e…
08-01 16:51:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x087e30…
08-01 16:51:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x8c4c55…
08-01 16:50:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd3c75b…
08-01 16:50:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$1	0x9827a5…
08-01 16:50:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xf6bd0e…
08-01 15:57:45	will wti dip to 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	18	12¢	$2	0x3aec9b…
08-01 02:04:11	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x8e2c8e…
08-01 02:04:11	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x5978da…
07-31 22:10:35	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xb48ce4…
07-31 20:59:15	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x6ae593…
07-31 19:55:29	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0xd755a7…
07-31 19:55:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	6	42¢	$3	0xe24fa2…
07-31 19:55:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x1c65cd…
07-31 19:52:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	4	35¢	$2	0xc3cd4b…
07-31 19:49:54	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x64434e…
07-31 19:49:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xb3fe9e…
07-31 19:49:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0xcc59f7…
07-31 19:48:23	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x6c1cf1…
07-31 19:48:18	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x6cd123…
07-31 19:47:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xbd55c2…
07-31 15:00:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x894ec5…
07-31 14:36:38	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0xdf493d…
07-31 13:48:27	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0x2c9978…
07-31 12:53:51	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x671cc3…
07-31 12:53:39	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8f7e71…
07-31 10:55:47	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x9faa08…
07-30 23:22:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xd5d860…
07-30 23:19:30	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xc0ba88…
07-30 23:09:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xa81401…
07-30 23:05:21	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x9db26d…
07-30 22:59:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9cf772…
07-30 22:59:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x2fe70b…
07-30 22:44:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0xbdca54…
07-30 22:34:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0xb40a16…
07-30 22:33:27	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xcf236a…
07-28 12:10:28	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x1b016b…
07-28 06:59:00	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0x454ccb…
07-27 18:39:57	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa83910…
07-27 18:10:43	will trump and netanyahu hug on tuesday 20260724181151719	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x9f495f…
07-26 19:43:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x893af1…
07-23 19:33:03	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0xbba1d3…
07-23 19:33:03	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xba1a5a…
07-23 19:33:01	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0x557f45…
07-23 19:32:55	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	1	52¢	$0	0x1ef386…
07-23 19:24:48	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x641ec2…
07-23 16:38:49	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe1c36e…
07-22 21:02:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x74fce8…
07-22 20:15:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xf2ac7a…
07-22 19:17:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x2b9954…
07-22 18:53:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0xfed7b9…
07-22 18:14:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x6f0571…