Mean-Archrival-Indigence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

286

lifetime

Volume

$404

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-10 02:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Crypto

32% 69% $-18

Other

30% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+28	$8	29¢	$8	$-0	06-09 15:10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	+13	$4	21¢	$3	$-2	06-10 02:08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	+2	$-0	12¢	$0	+$0	06-08 10:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	13	$52	75	75	+0	open	—	06-08 06:15
israel closes its airspace by june 8	18	$33	47	45	+2	open	—	06-08 04:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	28	$30	43	30	+13	open	—	06-10 02:08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	8	$24	32	32	+0	open	—	06-08 04:56
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	10	$21	24	24	+0	open	—	06-08 03:39
Solana Up or Down on May 7?	20	$20	39	0	+39	Down	+$2	05-06 16:57
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	8	$17	16	16	+0	open	—	06-06 07:00
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	9	$17	26	26	+0	open	—	06-08 08:36
israel closes its airspace by june 9	10	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	06-08 04:10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	4	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	06-10 01:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$11	30	30	+0	open	—	06-07 23:58
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	9	$10	29	29	+0	open	—	06-04 00:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	3	$9	20	20	+0	open	—	06-07 20:25
Iran leadership change by December 31?	1	$8	28	0	+28	open	—	06-09 15:10
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$8	22	22	+0	open	—	06-07 23:57
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on May 6?	8	$7	8	1	+7	No	+$1	05-06 18:33
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	11	$5	12	9	+3	open	—	06-04 02:24
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 12?	9	$5	4	4	+0	No	$-1	05-07 18:21
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 7?	5	$5	6	0	+6	No	$-5	05-06 18:15
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 4-10?	5	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-06 18:46
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	7	$5	5	3	+2	open	—	05-09 02:17
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	4	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	05-06 18:30
Will XRP dip to $1.10 May 4-10?	4	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	05-06 18:45
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 7?	3	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-06 17:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	5	$2	5	5	+0	open	—	06-08 00:55
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10?	2	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	05-06 21:43
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	05-07 20:37
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	05-07 17:59
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 8?	2	$2	3	0	+3	No	$-2	05-06 18:46
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 12?	2	$2	4	0	+4	No	$-0	05-07 20:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 02:08:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x062aa0…
06-10 02:00:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xe38613…
06-10 01:59:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xab5316…
06-10 01:52:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xeea927…
06-10 01:52:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xa1e4b8…
06-10 01:52:04	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x59befc…
06-10 01:51:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x6dad64…
06-10 01:46:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x83d562…
06-10 01:26:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xffc641…
06-10 01:25:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x4a14c3…
06-10 01:25:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x6fa896…
06-10 01:06:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x907de8…
06-10 01:03:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xa66801…
06-10 00:47:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x44669d…
06-10 00:37:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x45438a…
06-10 00:14:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x60be25…
06-09 21:04:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xad0155…
06-09 16:44:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x569d13…
06-09 16:39:33	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0xd8d227…
06-09 15:10:51	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	30¢	$8	0x2f68e5…
06-08 10:12:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0xf2b4c7…
06-08 08:36:06	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x73d502…
06-08 07:49:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x5a6601…
06-08 07:23:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0xb1170e…
06-08 06:49:01	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xf9f510…
06-08 06:36:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0xb5130e…
06-08 06:29:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x9aed4d…
06-08 06:15:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0xc97f58…
06-08 06:14:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0x302a9f…
06-08 06:11:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x77ec96…
06-08 06:11:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x85b7de…
06-08 06:07:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x671b98…
06-08 05:27:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xceb171…
06-08 05:16:12	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$0	0x35c725…
06-08 05:16:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0xf6d5fa…
06-08 05:08:54	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xa93240…
06-08 05:06:39	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x55efbb…
06-08 04:56:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x3d4a72…
06-08 04:36:49	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x54abc6…
06-08 04:36:36	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x184313…
06-08 04:35:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x0178d3…
06-08 04:35:01	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0x0b2bd6…
06-08 04:34:42	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xe29def…
06-08 04:34:27	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x84e504…
06-08 04:33:31	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	12	30¢	$4	0xdfeeff…
06-08 04:33:10	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	30¢	$0	0xf185d6…
06-08 04:31:55	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	0	31¢	$0	0x32f141…
06-08 04:27:54	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x419d1c…
06-08 04:25:18	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x472199…
06-08 04:24:48	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	24	31¢	$7	0x885f41…
06-08 04:17:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x022f96…
06-08 04:10:52	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xf483a4…
06-08 04:10:30	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0xbc67f6…
06-08 04:09:52	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xcc413f…
06-08 04:09:24	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xe2c2dd…
06-08 04:09:03	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x9d2d7f…
06-08 04:08:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xfc3054…
06-08 04:08:51	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0x4c2e08…
06-08 04:08:31	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x93f885…
06-08 04:05:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x091954…
06-08 04:03:25	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xfddc4c…
06-08 04:02:12	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0x39dca5…
06-08 04:02:00	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe23ba9…
06-08 04:01:51	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xbc307d…
06-08 03:57:51	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0x6c2243…
06-08 03:39:37	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xe022bd…
06-08 03:37:01	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xd114d4…
06-08 03:36:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x087654…
06-08 03:36:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xf8003f…
06-08 03:36:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xc0ca28…
06-08 03:36:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x0dc86d…
06-08 03:26:25	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xc8baa8…
06-08 03:20:12	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x2ed721…
06-08 03:14:18	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xd8afbf…
06-08 03:03:16	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0x451756…
06-08 03:02:12	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xff2428…
06-08 03:00:45	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0xba2698…
06-08 02:55:55	israel closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x54a1e8…
06-08 02:54:13	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	4	38¢	$1	0x140a3f…
06-08 02:53:43	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x58f703…
06-08 02:53:18	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x8e4aae…
06-08 02:31:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	7	37¢	$2	0x23795a…
06-08 02:13:30	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x6c6ce9…
06-08 02:03:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x74f0a7…
06-08 01:22:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	21	36¢	$7	0x2805e1…
06-08 01:20:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0x49ed88…
06-08 01:20:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xf010ca…
06-08 01:18:48	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x03c0e4…
06-08 00:55:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	4	21¢	$1	0x46cab0…
06-08 00:38:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x4533e9…
06-08 00:35:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xe44cb7…
06-08 00:32:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0xbcdd60…
06-08 00:04:37	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xb6940c…
06-07 23:58:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xf001f5…
06-07 23:57:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0x82ae76…
06-07 23:49:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x999e5f…
06-07 23:42:39	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	Yes	BUY	26	35¢	$9	0x28f34b…
06-07 23:40:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xd00ccc…
06-07 23:39:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x6bfc85…
06-07 23:38:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	22	19¢	$4	0x8d7cc3…