Mean-Archrival-Indigence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

674

lifetime

Volume

$941

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 06-30 12:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

44% — —

Politics

42% — —

Crypto

14% 69% $-18

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+30	$8	18¢	$5	$-2	06-30 01:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+29	$4	14¢	$4	+$0	06-22 01:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+4	$3	100¢	$4	+$1	06-15 01:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+6	$4	26¢	$2	$-2	06-20 13:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+13	$8	0¢	$0	$-8	06-20 17:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	104	$128	372	356	+16	open	—	06-20 17:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	31	$72	134	120	+14	open	—	06-13 17:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	50	$71	242	212	+30	open	—	06-30 01:57
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	40	$43	85	116	-31	open	—	06-14 21:16
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	29	$38	256	256	+0	open	—	06-22 03:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$36	38	33	+6	open	—	06-20 13:57
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	39	$34	43	43	+0	open	—	06-11 17:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	18	$33	47	45	+2	open	—	06-08 04:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	11	$32	26	31	-5	open	—	06-14 13:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$29	33	41	-7	open	—	06-14 22:10
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	5	$26	33	33	+0	open	—	06-12 02:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	8	$24	32	32	+0	open	—	06-08 04:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	7	$22	16	15	+1	open	—	06-14 21:23
Solana Up or Down on May 7?	20	$20	39	0	+39	Down	+$2	05-06 16:57
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	8	$17	16	16	+0	open	—	06-06 07:00
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	9	$17	26	26	+0	open	—	06-08 08:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	7	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	06-19 14:04
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$16	28	28	+0	open	—	06-11 17:31
israel closes its airspace by june 9	10	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	06-08 04:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$14	70	41	+29	open	—	06-22 01:16
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	15	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-20 00:03
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	5	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-10 18:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	9	$10	29	29	+0	open	—	06-04 00:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	3	$9	20	20	+0	open	—	06-07 20:25
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	13	$9	25	25	+0	open	—	06-20 16:42
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	5	$8	58	8	+50	open	—	06-29 18:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	10	$8	8	14	-6	open	—	06-14 14:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	5	$8	15	15	+0	open	—	06-19 01:16
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on May 6?	8	$7	8	1	+7	No	+$1	05-06 18:33
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	6	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	06-18 16:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:19:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$1	0xec6db7…
06-30 12:15:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	0	41¢	$0	0x1bdb10…
06-30 11:35:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x2fa9e0…
06-30 11:32:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$1	0x8dec06…
06-30 01:57:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd19049…
06-29 18:49:32	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x0841f7…
06-29 18:49:31	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xd7e7bb…
06-28 20:44:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x91740f…
06-28 20:37:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xb33da8…
06-28 18:27:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x812490…
06-28 18:24:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x5ac530…
06-28 15:24:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xc5801e…
06-25 11:45:38	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x06a172…
06-24 16:47:16	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x35fa0e…
06-23 14:51:32	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xad1e52…
06-23 14:33:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x6cd965…
06-22 17:12:31	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xdc8590…
06-22 15:24:28	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0xcb2c8a…
06-22 14:21:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	17	14¢	$2	0x1d7d49…
06-22 14:12:20	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xb35fca…
06-22 03:05:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xdac842…
06-22 02:57:40	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xf5f746…
06-22 01:18:50	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xe7f5db…
06-22 01:18:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xb39609…
06-22 01:16:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	13¢	$5	0x636955…
06-22 01:15:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xe0f2b8…
06-22 01:12:26	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x3cc665…
06-22 01:03:04	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	4¢	$1	0x6bf370…
06-21 17:13:31	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0xdd4ccf…
06-21 16:05:23	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x8f7a82…
06-21 16:04:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x5347fd…
06-21 15:56:53	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	57	5¢	$3	0xcbfb74…
06-21 13:39:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xca6356…
06-20 17:06:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0x834c7b…
06-20 16:42:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x20fb0a…
06-20 16:39:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0x669424…
06-20 16:32:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0x317fdd…
06-20 16:32:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x25511a…
06-20 16:31:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0xa491f6…
06-20 16:30:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x330d47…
06-20 16:29:25	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0x5d5e0b…
06-20 16:13:01	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x990985…
06-20 15:46:44	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x13c9a4…
06-20 15:44:14	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x44e661…
06-20 15:28:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xcd3038…
06-20 15:06:46	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0xda6df8…
06-20 14:59:14	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	83	5¢	$4	0xf66055…
06-20 14:54:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	19	10¢	$2	0x094260…
06-20 14:50:23	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x914562…
06-20 14:47:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0xd93db0…
06-20 14:41:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x988ee8…
06-20 14:38:29	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0xbc59ae…
06-20 14:34:20	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x2df59a…
06-20 14:34:07	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x0b97dd…
06-20 14:33:44	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0xb90d85…
06-20 13:57:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	7	45¢	$3	0xe4d512…
06-20 13:55:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	28	13¢	$4	0x37a44c…
06-20 13:40:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	19	12¢	$2	0xb0b7c1…
06-20 13:18:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x4c2c63…
06-20 13:16:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0xeb5f0e…
06-20 13:15:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0xaa22ee…
06-20 13:14:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb43e72…
06-20 13:14:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x922870…
06-20 13:14:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0x23609e…
06-20 13:13:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xcb0c7d…
06-20 13:12:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xda010f…
06-20 13:12:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x419332…
06-20 13:10:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xd3e42f…
06-20 13:08:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x1188cf…
06-20 13:05:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xf31795…
06-20 13:01:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xbff974…
06-20 12:57:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x561df8…
06-20 10:11:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x142dae…
06-20 03:14:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x36e659…
06-20 03:14:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x097aa8…
06-20 00:03:38	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	67¢	$0	0xcc875c…
06-20 00:02:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x56e5d9…
06-20 00:02:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xf78f65…
06-20 00:02:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x36f359…
06-20 00:02:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x326ebf…
06-20 00:01:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x18b265…
06-19 23:47:13	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x6f11b9…
06-19 23:47:11	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xc4febf…
06-19 23:47:11	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x2f85b2…
06-19 23:47:10	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xdee68b…
06-19 23:47:10	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x55cbcd…
06-19 23:29:44	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0x5bfca6…
06-19 23:18:11	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	66¢	$0	0x40fb44…
06-19 23:17:53	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x661802…
06-19 23:12:55	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x2b8aac…
06-19 23:12:55	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x13f148…
06-19 23:09:10	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x5bdf73…
06-19 23:05:22	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x41e060…
06-19 23:04:11	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0x82a809…
06-19 22:59:07	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xbd0815…
06-19 19:55:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xffb874…
06-19 19:55:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xba92bc…
06-19 19:51:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0xf56ebc…
06-19 19:51:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x157cdc…
06-19 19:42:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x256b93…