Mean-Archrival-Indigence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

Trades

818

lifetime

Volume

$1.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 07-22 21:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

47% — —

Politics

41% — —

Crypto

11% 69% $-18

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	-6	$-2	50¢	$-3	$-1	07-06 10:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+6	$4	1¢	$0	$-4	07-11 14:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+0	$-4	30¢	$0	+$4	07-18 14:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	104	$128	372	356	+16	open	—	06-20 17:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	55	$80	242	248	-6	open	—	07-06 10:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	31	$72	134	120	+14	open	—	06-13 17:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	16	$46	88	83	+6	open	—	07-11 14:53
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	40	$43	85	116	-31	open	—	06-14 21:16
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	29	$38	256	256	+0	open	—	06-22 03:05
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	12	$37	45	45	+0	open	—	07-12 00:49
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	39	$34	43	43	+0	open	—	06-11 17:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	18	$33	47	45	+2	open	—	06-08 04:36
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	40	$33	114	114	+0	open	—	07-22 18:53
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	11	$32	26	31	-5	open	—	06-14 13:00
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	5	$29	33	41	-7	open	—	06-14 22:10
Iran leadership change by December 31?	7	$29	60	60	+0	open	—	07-14 00:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	5	$26	33	33	+0	open	—	06-12 02:58
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	8	$24	32	32	+0	open	—	06-08 04:56
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	7	$22	16	15	+1	open	—	06-14 21:23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$21	70	70	+0	open	—	07-18 14:16
Solana Up or Down on May 7?	20	$20	39	0	+39	Down	+$2	05-06 16:57
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	17	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	07-14 07:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	8	$18	29	29	+0	open	—	07-07 18:41
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	8	$17	16	16	+0	open	—	06-06 07:00
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	9	$17	26	26	+0	open	—	06-08 08:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	7	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	06-19 14:04
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	21	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	07-13 17:51
israel closes its airspace by june 9	10	$16	19	19	+0	open	—	06-08 04:10
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	9	$14	59	59	+0	open	—	07-13 13:00
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	15	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	06-20 00:03
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	5	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-10 18:00
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	9	$10	29	29	+0	open	—	06-04 00:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	3	$9	20	20	+0	open	—	06-07 20:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 16:38:49	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe1c36e…
07-22 21:02:46	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x74fce8…
07-22 20:15:54	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xf2ac7a…
07-22 19:17:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x2b9954…
07-22 18:53:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0xfed7b9…
07-22 18:14:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x6f0571…
07-22 18:02:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xf95dd7…
07-22 17:57:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0x7a5dd0…
07-22 17:31:54	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xc5395b…
07-22 17:21:03	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	17	19¢	$3	0x92feda…
07-22 17:17:57	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6af509…
07-19 18:24:00	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x796618…
07-19 18:17:39	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x0e6902…
07-19 17:53:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x6af7fc…
07-19 17:53:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xbf4957…
07-19 17:53:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0xcb1663…
07-19 17:53:01	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x5021d8…
07-19 17:37:30	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$1	0x82de4b…
07-19 17:22:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x98da41…
07-18 14:16:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x22e409…
07-17 20:01:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0x86abb0…
07-17 18:12:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x127053…
07-14 07:36:13	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$0	0x67d6ef…
07-14 06:48:44	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x52dfe7…
07-14 05:11:43	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xe757a0…
07-14 04:15:08	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x0ec19a…
07-14 03:40:35	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x31ec64…
07-14 00:24:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x054482…
07-14 00:23:46	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xbd9e0a…
07-14 00:23:13	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x3425bc…
07-14 00:23:10	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xdeea08…
07-14 00:20:26	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x7caf11…
07-14 00:00:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x9e20a7…
07-13 23:58:07	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	89¢	$0	0xc6a829…
07-13 23:24:02	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xcbce6a…
07-13 22:56:55	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xda5ef3…
07-13 22:56:53	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x3e028a…
07-13 20:17:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x41e01f…
07-13 20:16:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xe0d24a…
07-13 20:16:34	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xc24964…
07-13 20:16:26	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0xad481a…
07-13 19:29:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0x2e78f4…
07-13 18:59:32	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0x8f18eb…
07-13 18:41:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x40f571…
07-13 17:51:10	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	6	32¢	$2	0x065a81…
07-13 17:37:26	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0x2cd9d4…
07-13 17:34:41	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x7b3281…
07-13 17:34:17	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xf5570f…
07-13 17:34:14	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x2a305a…
07-13 17:34:10	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x2e9e97…
07-13 17:34:07	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x8457f3…
07-13 17:34:04	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x8d8cbf…
07-13 17:34:01	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x149114…
07-13 17:33:56	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x7f0da5…
07-13 17:33:53	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x10a3bf…
07-13 17:33:50	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xf88418…
07-13 17:33:46	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x19fe28…
07-13 17:33:43	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x574250…
07-13 17:19:44	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xda06ca…
07-13 17:15:32	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x5f1d1d…
07-13 17:14:37	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xa5d94e…
07-13 17:00:34	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x466981…
07-13 16:53:17	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0xa0f6d8…
07-13 15:42:01	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x97167c…
07-13 15:34:22	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0x903656…
07-13 14:20:25	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xa24072…
07-13 13:00:05	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0xa03af5…
07-13 12:53:29	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x4320ff…
07-13 02:43:04	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x96b899…
07-12 22:19:23	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$2	0x3410a0…
07-12 01:06:56	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	22¢	$4	0xbbe002…
07-12 00:49:56	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0x222e7d…
07-12 00:48:14	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0xe45351…
07-12 00:18:35	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0xc6f17c…
07-12 00:08:44	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa24e95…
07-12 00:05:47	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x6f7e56…
07-12 00:04:26	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xd7b22e…
07-11 23:47:34	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x2a4fba…
07-11 23:39:13	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x254ce0…
07-11 23:39:05	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x00c259…
07-11 23:30:07	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x5a1a29…
07-11 23:17:19	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x171a65…
07-11 23:16:28	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	15	16¢	$2	0x3875a6…
07-11 23:15:43	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x62f952…
07-11 23:15:43	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x316950…
07-11 23:15:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x6d77e6…
07-11 22:22:16	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x097b36…
07-11 22:21:43	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	26	33¢	$9	0x0d5934…
07-11 22:20:59	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x73da24…
07-11 22:20:52	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x668b84…
07-11 22:20:07	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x9b93af…
07-11 14:53:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x32247b…
07-11 14:53:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x2eaa4c…
07-11 14:53:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x549163…
07-11 14:53:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x1d48a3…
07-11 14:53:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x29fd05…
07-11 14:52:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x794b12…
07-11 14:52:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x05da05…
07-11 14:52:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x90ef2f…
07-11 14:28:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x6736f7…