Elaborate-Context — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.0%

Resolved

Trades

560

lifetime

Volume

$150.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$268

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 04-28 04:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

53% — —

Other

38% 100% +$1

Sports

5% 0% $-9

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	11	$34.1K	18,163	18,163	+0	open	—	03-03 07:13
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	30	$30.3K	17,775	17,775	+0	open	—	03-24 06:04
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$30.1K	15,370	15,370	+0	open	—	03-05 03:12
will trump visit china by march 31	7	$10.4K	6,281	6,281	+0	open	—	03-17 03:09
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-31 02:10
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	17	$3.9K	4,750	242	+4,508	open	—	03-15 05:19
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-02 03:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	03-18 19:31
bitcoin up or down on february 5	7	$2.8K	13,363	13,363	+0	open	—	02-05 11:47
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	9	$1.7K	2,500	2,464	+36	open	—	04-07 06:24
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	3	$1.7K	1,147	1,147	+0	open	—	03-26 02:32
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	12	$1.5K	900	900	+0	open	—	04-13 00:43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	9	$1.5K	906	906	+0	open	—	04-13 02:02
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	9	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-18 04:10
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	4	$1.4K	892	892	+0	Yes	$-9	03-30 01:46
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 280 299	11	$1.1K	2,000	878	+1,122	open	—	03-27 04:56
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	4	$1.0K	2,946	2,818	+128	open	—	04-07 03:51
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	3	$937	3,000	2,870	+130	open	—	04-07 03:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$813	476	476	+0	open	—	04-28 04:14
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	3	$804	2,988	2,855	+133	open	—	04-07 03:50
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	3	$685	2,695	2,577	+118	open	—	04-07 03:52
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	18	$511	282	282	+0	open	—	03-27 02:35
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$480	500	500	+0	open	—	03-05 03:09
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 260 279	1	$447	700	0	+700	open	—	03-17 03:16
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 260 279	3	$437	232	232	+0	open	—	02-25 07:41
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	5	$417	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-01 01:43
will arizona win the 2026 ncaa tournament	5	$403	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-26 02:32
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	8	$394	2,550	497	+2,053	open	—	04-07 04:07
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	2	$380	400	400	+0	open	—	03-27 02:26
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	11	$373	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-02 03:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
04-28 04:14:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	376	98¢	$370	0xde59e2…
04-22 07:09:06	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,838	2¢	$35	0xdcc351…
04-22 07:08:24	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,501	1¢	$30	0xa5de6e…
04-22 07:07:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	67¢	$67	0x3a180f…
04-21 04:08:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	476	79¢	$376	0x696f9a…
04-13 02:02:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	746	99¢	$739	0x189b4d…
04-13 00:43:23	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	700	100¢	$699	0x23dcf3…
04-09 08:13:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	533	70¢	$373	0xab5dcc…
04-09 08:00:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0x19a238…
04-09 08:00:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	47	70¢	$33	0xa8f4af…
04-09 08:00:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	73	70¢	$51	0xa3a239…
04-09 08:00:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x44b611…
04-09 08:00:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	49	70¢	$35	0xd4f9d0…
04-09 06:21:03	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	29	77¢	$22	0x196e5e…
04-09 06:18:43	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0xb89fc7…
04-09 06:18:37	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xcfdcb4…
04-09 06:18:37	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0x80f3ed…
04-09 06:18:37	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x18a6c8…
04-09 06:16:03	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0xa2ad53…
04-09 06:15:51	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x2f8208…
04-09 06:15:21	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xc69c8f…
04-09 06:15:21	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	337	77¢	$259	0x3e4197…
04-07 06:24:11	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	1,525	15¢	$227	0x49cba5…
04-07 06:22:25	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x56a9c6…
04-07 06:22:19	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x20ef30…
04-07 06:22:15	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	31	12¢	$4	0xbcac04…
04-07 06:22:09	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	261	12¢	$31	0xe2ef32…
04-07 06:22:07	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	42	12¢	$5	0x931cea…
04-07 04:07:07	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x6ac8fc…
04-07 04:06:47	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	45	14¢	$6	0xc56a10…
04-07 04:05:29	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	1,900	15¢	$283	0x644fc3…
04-07 04:05:29	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x3536f7…
04-07 04:05:29	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x2efccf…
04-07 04:05:29	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	49	15¢	$7	0x2ef177…
04-07 04:04:41	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	BUY	2,000	67¢	$1,342	0x5783bc…
04-07 03:52:09	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	Yes	SELL	2,577	13¢	$343	0x0e9460…
04-07 03:51:35	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	Yes	SELL	2,870	18¢	$531	0x67d09f…
04-07 03:51:13	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	Yes	SELL	2,818	22¢	$624	0x8a4e1b…
04-07 03:50:59	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	Yes	SELL	2,855	17¢	$485	0x274a98…
04-06 02:32:45	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	115	73¢	$84	0x5ed485…
04-06 02:31:45	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	Yes	SELL	1,050	9¢	$99	0x541510…
04-06 01:56:45	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	Yes	SELL	496	24¢	$119	0x4e6816…
04-06 01:56:19	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 300 319	Yes	SELL	498	7¢	$35	0x5ffc8f…
04-06 01:55:59	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	Yes	SELL	498	2¢	$10	0x26c62f…
04-05 05:02:53	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x7c2219…
04-05 04:12:27	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	109	72¢	$78	0x84d3cb…
04-04 02:33:09	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	SELL	497	13¢	$65	0xa33f32…
04-04 02:32:35	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	SELL	497	5¢	$25	0x60fd7a…
04-04 02:32:21	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	Yes	SELL	497	2¢	$9	0xa5dd8c…
04-02 05:11:09	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x4af330…
04-02 05:10:57	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xebdf9d…
04-02 05:10:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	SELL	1,100	1¢	$11	0xc6cdf0…
04-02 03:34:05	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	Yes	BUY	2,000	13¢	$259	0x388d49…
04-02 03:33:35	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	Yes	BUY	2,000	14¢	$277	0x1e7dd3…
04-02 03:33:27	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	Yes	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x982840…
04-02 03:33:15	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	Yes	BUY	1,943	13¢	$253	0xf2a751…
04-02 03:33:03	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	1,988	10¢	$199	0x9cd475…
04-02 03:32:05	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x99df07…
04-02 03:28:03	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0x5eb164…
04-02 03:27:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	Yes	SELL	1,100	8¢	$88	0xe30437…
04-02 03:26:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 280 299	Yes	SELL	1,100	22¢	$242	0xf76396…
04-01 01:45:13	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	Yes	BUY	695	12¢	$83	0xd81415…
04-01 01:45:01	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 200 219	Yes	BUY	600	10¢	$58	0xeaf9b1…
04-01 01:44:09	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x6adb90…
04-01 01:43:55	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0xced31b…
04-01 01:43:43	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x1618b7…
04-01 01:43:35	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x03c068…
04-01 01:40:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	Yes	SELL	1,100	18¢	$199	0x6ca098…
04-01 01:38:59	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	Yes	SELL	1,085	27¢	$295	0xfcb69c…
04-01 01:38:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 220 239	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x6c268b…
04-01 01:28:21	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,484	0x8a0784…
03-31 03:26:27	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 320 339	Yes	BUY	500	9¢	$45	0xf82d11…
03-31 03:26:15	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 300 319	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xda40b6…
03-31 03:26:03	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0x33c10e…
03-31 03:25:53	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$63	0x82aa40…
03-31 03:25:39	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$64	0x97998a…
03-31 03:25:21	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 220 239	Yes	BUY	500	13¢	$64	0x1cde4c…
03-31 03:25:07	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 200 219	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$39	0x24e3b2…
03-31 02:13:19	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xdda191…
03-31 02:10:55	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,964	0x9cdcca…
03-30 01:57:24	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x5ce33e…
03-30 01:54:28	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	2,000	98¢	$1,964	0x5fca53…
03-30 01:47:22	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$69	0xad16ee…
03-30 01:47:16	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x93580c…
03-30 01:46:52	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x0d6b13…
03-30 01:46:18	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0x541374…
03-27 10:01:39	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	105	11¢	$12	0xf2068b…
03-27 08:13:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xaef1d5…
03-27 07:38:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x02b5e2…
03-27 07:38:23	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xc11e7e…
03-27 07:36:27	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x0e472b…
03-27 07:21:47	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0x60bccb…
03-27 06:38:01	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x30fd4d…
03-27 06:37:39	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x05931a…
03-27 06:37:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x38f866…
03-27 06:22:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x4cc143…
03-27 06:22:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x229e4c…
03-27 06:01:37	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xa5861f…
03-27 05:35:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x3c42d1…
03-27 04:56:45	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 280 299	Yes	SELL	253	52¢	$131	0xaf6cd4…