Regular-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$255

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$7.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 05-09 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

72% 58% +$207

Sports

25% 100% +$47

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	+$180	05-05 20:46
will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	13	$835	500	500	+0	open	—	03-19 20:47
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	2	$726	800	0	+800	Under	+$74	05-09 18:12
ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	9	$468	4,450	0	+4,450	open	—	03-17 20:33
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	2	$452	260	260	+0	Under	+$67	05-06 23:32
will manchester city reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	3	$369	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 20:25
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	7	$299	447	185	+262	Over	$-125	05-06 20:50
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$276	300	300	+0	open	—	04-06 05:21
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	5	$258	300	300	+0	Over	+$66	05-09 18:03
ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	3	$233	380	275	+105	open	—	04-14 20:38
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	2	$207	330	0	+330	open	—	04-14 20:52
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	1	$202	250	0	+250	No	+$47	05-06 20:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	4	$191	200	0	+200	open	—	02-22 15:48
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	4	$132	171	0	+171	Yes	+$39	03-05 01:24
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	2	$115	154	0	+154	Under	+$39	05-06 20:39
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	1	$102	330	0	+330	open	—	04-14 18:03
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	4	$78	230	0	+230	Yes	$-78	05-06 20:36
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	2	$78	100	100	+0	Club Atlético de Madrid	$-4	05-05 20:12
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	2	$78	60	60	+0	No	+$6	05-05 20:28
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	4	$44	54	0	+54	Manchester City FC	$-44	05-09 18:17
cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	3	$40	100	0	+100	open	—	03-20 01:18
ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 mnc1	1	$32	50	0	+50	open	—	03-12 22:05
cbb siena duke 2026 03 19	3	$27	280	0	+280	open	—	03-19 20:57
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$13	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 12:50
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$12	170	0	+170	Yes	$-12	03-05 03:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 18:17:01	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x13e8a8…
05-09 18:16:52	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x97e9fb…
05-09 18:16:52	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x385857…
05-09 18:16:52	Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)	Brentford FC	BUY	17	81¢	$14	0x23677b…
05-09 18:12:03	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x104d5d…
05-09 18:11:23	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x2f50ad…
05-09 18:03:41	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	SELL	300	54¢	$162	0x72a636…
05-09 17:33:59	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	215	32¢	$69	0xe49225…
05-09 17:33:59	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xd5d6e5…
05-09 17:33:58	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x3fac0b…
05-09 17:33:47	Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	79	32¢	$25	0x0ca991…
05-06 23:32:19	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	Under	SELL	260	100¢	$260	0xbebaf2…
05-06 20:50:01	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x8c477b…
05-06 20:45:42	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	168	47¢	$79	0x551e4c…
05-06 20:45:38	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xa22450…
05-06 20:45:36	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x724eb2…
05-06 20:45:35	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x6e5520…
05-06 20:45:35	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	SELL	1	47¢	$1	0x0d7c23…
05-06 20:44:14	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	369	44¢	$162	0x469aff…
05-06 20:39:50	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x6b049f…
05-06 20:38:57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x3572e4…
05-06 20:36:53	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	30	45¢	$13	0x324184…
05-06 20:31:31	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0xba7764…
05-06 20:25:01	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	125	31¢	$39	0x254c2d…
05-06 20:24:57	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	43	31¢	$13	0xfa2b15…
05-06 20:17:01	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	BUY	250	81¢	$202	0xf49158…
05-06 19:43:48	FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	260	74¢	$192	0xe6372e…
05-05 20:46:58	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	1,000	97¢	$970	0xc77d27…
05-05 20:29:08	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	1,000	79¢	$790	0xb3dc3c…
05-05 20:28:44	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	60	70¢	$42	0x5b5b09…
05-05 20:16:26	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	60	60¢	$36	0xd60b7f…
05-05 20:12:12	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	SELL	100	37¢	$37	0xd7ef4b…
05-05 20:08:38	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x054a16…
04-14 20:52:40	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0x4daeca…
04-14 20:38:20	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xf0f47f…
04-14 20:32:00	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	SELL	275	23¢	$63	0x969cf7…
04-14 18:13:28	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 psg1	Yes	BUY	280	37¢	$104	0x220d52…
04-14 18:12:36	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	180	55¢	$99	0xe9448e…
04-14 18:03:32	Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	BUY	330	31¢	$102	0xcd19c2…
04-07 12:50:59	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$13	0x24ad0e…
04-06 05:21:55	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	SELL	300	73¢	$219	0x900b26…
03-20 01:18:05	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	North Carolina Tar Heels	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0xb48022…
03-20 01:18:05	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	North Carolina Tar Heels	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x90df7c…
03-20 01:18:01	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	North Carolina Tar Heels	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7dd152…
03-19 20:57:17	cbb siena duke 2026 03 19	Siena Saints	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0xf91768…
03-19 20:47:59	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	250	84¢	$210	0x00977f…
03-19 20:42:13	cbb siena duke 2026 03 19	Siena Saints	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x95f75d…
03-19 20:39:27	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	105	86¢	$90	0xd90b0c…
03-19 20:39:11	cbb siena duke 2026 03 19	Siena Saints	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0xf235f8…
03-19 20:24:23	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0x4926c8…
03-19 20:23:45	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xaf22af…
03-19 20:21:39	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	18	86¢	$15	0x9a8b8f…
03-19 20:21:29	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0xe19234…
03-19 20:20:57	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	49	86¢	$42	0x693686…
03-19 20:20:53	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xb50dd8…
03-19 20:20:49	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xafc951…
03-19 20:19:35	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xb8d0a1…
03-19 20:19:19	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x5fa71f…
03-19 19:28:33	will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0xaefdfd…
03-19 19:26:21	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x0c37e5…
03-19 19:26:15	will duke win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x9bf528…
03-17 20:33:37	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	751	10¢	$75	0xcdf1dc…
03-17 20:33:37	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x7a7326…
03-17 20:33:33	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x617300…
03-17 20:33:25	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x59ef7d…
03-17 20:33:23	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xb3fbe8…
03-17 20:33:21	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd6a7ed…
03-17 20:33:13	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	1,300	10¢	$133	0x9916d4…
03-17 20:33:07	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	2,000	11¢	$220	0x717e78…
03-17 20:32:33	ucl ars lev 2026 03 17 lev	Yes	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x1451fd…
03-17 20:25:19	will manchester city reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	No	SELL	195	100¢	$194	0xef6d3b…
03-17 20:24:15	will manchester city reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x98fa66…
03-12 22:05:47	ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 mnc1	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xf63456…
03-12 22:04:51	will manchester city reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xf4c9ea…
03-05 03:39:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	53	6¢	$3	0xdc0fc0…
03-05 02:26:11	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0x3b2e31…
03-05 01:31:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x68ee28…
03-05 01:29:17	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	70	8¢	$5	0x2c3f5e…
03-05 01:24:19	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x2d8f70…
03-05 01:23:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x319b5d…
03-05 01:23:33	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x3fa10c…
03-05 01:23:29	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x758c29…
02-22 15:48:20	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$28	0xc17748…
02-22 15:48:16	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	114	96¢	$109	0x8a329e…
02-22 15:47:48	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xb43481…
02-22 15:43:36	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x1aecbc…