Alarming-Sermon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$21

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.7%

Resolved (90d)

3,236

Trades (90d)

5,180

8,779 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.27K

$5.28K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 10-21 21:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 87% +$18

Other

0% 70% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 288 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	6	$20	0	30	-30	Up	+$0	08-23 21:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 13:30 UTC	2	$16	0	30	-30	Down	+$1	09-25 13:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 15:00 UTC	2	$16	0	30	-30	Down	+$1	09-25 15:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 19:45 UTC	2	$15	0	30	-30	Up	+$0	09-25 20:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	8	$15	0	30	-30	Down	+$0	08-23 21:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	8	$15	0	30	-30	Up	+$0	08-23 22:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:05 UTC	3	$12	12	2	+10	Down	$0	07-27 04:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 05:00 UTC	3	$12	13	2	+11	Down	-$13	07-27 05:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 03:55 UTC	2	$12	12	1	+11	Down	+$0	07-27 03:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:55 UTC	2	$12	12	1	+11	Down	+$0	07-27 04:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:50 UTC	2	$12	12	1	+11	Down	+$0	07-27 04:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:00 UTC	2	$12	12	1	+11	Up	+$0	07-27 04:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:45 UTC	1	$12	12	0	+12	Down	+$0	07-27 04:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:25 UTC	2	$12	0	20	-20	Up	+$2	08-27 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 17:20 UTC	3	$12	1	20	-19	Down	+$1	08-27 17:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-27 07:45 UTC	12	$11	7	7	+0	Up	-$1	09-27 07:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:40 UTC	2	$11	11	1	+10	Up	+$1	07-27 04:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 17:30 UTC	3	$11	1	20	-19	Down	+$0	08-27 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 01:40 UTC	2	$11	0	20	-20	Up	+$1	08-28 01:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 04:30 UTC	1	$11	12	0	+12	Down	+$1	07-27 04:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 01:10 UTC	3	$11	5	6	-0	Down	+$0	07-20 01:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:10 UTC	2	$10	0	20	-20	Down	+$0	08-27 18:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 14:55 UTC	5	$10	26	36	-10	Up	+$1	07-27 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:20 UTC	2	$10	0	20	-20	Up	+$0	08-27 18:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 23:30 UTC	2	$10	0	20	-20	Down	+$0	08-27 23:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 03:35 UTC	2	$10	10	1	+9	Up	+$0	07-27 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	2	$10	10	1	+9	Down	+$0	07-27 03:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 03:40 UTC	2	$10	10	1	+9	Up	+$0	07-27 03:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	2	$10	0	20	-20	Down	+$0	08-28 00:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 03:00 UTC	2	$10	0	20	-20	Up	+$0	09-25 03:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 21:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x34953e…
10-21 21:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	42¢	$0	0x1b0cfb…
10-21 21:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xd27629…
10-21 20:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x0cee2b…
10-21 19:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x21c70c…
10-21 19:13:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x3820cf…
10-21 16:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xf0a21c…
10-21 15:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x28a812…
10-21 15:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xa4b3a6…
10-21 14:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x3b2807…
10-21 14:14:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x9b0a74…
10-21 14:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x02d34d…
10-21 14:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x93da8f…
10-21 13:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xbac19e…
10-21 13:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x203c3a…
10-21 07:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x9926e2…
10-21 06:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x76d612…
10-21 06:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x9407ff…
10-21 05:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x9eab7e…
10-21 05:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x3471fe…
10-21 05:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xb34207…
10-21 04:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x61366e…
10-21 04:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xcabae3…
10-21 04:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x755e0c…
10-21 03:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe26914…
10-21 02:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x8b711e…
10-21 02:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x36cbcd…
10-21 02:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x3fe6d0…
10-21 02:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x8de3ae…
10-21 01:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x96ba06…
10-21 01:57:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xd5dd23…
10-21 01:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x9dd22e…
10-21 01:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x7c216a…
10-20 16:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xeeccb4…
10-20 15:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xa933c8…
10-20 15:43:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x870b1a…
10-20 15:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x19b34b…
10-20 15:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xc5d43a…
10-20 15:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xf00d63…
10-20 15:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x56acb4…
10-20 15:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0xdcd63e…
10-20 14:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbf29aa…
10-20 14:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x46717d…
10-20 12:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5ac0da…
10-20 12:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xcce16d…
10-20 11:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x6929fd…
10-20 11:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x9bc25e…
10-20 10:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xff715e…
10-20 09:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xf24e92…
10-20 09:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7e20b8…
10-20 09:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x251206…
10-20 09:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x2a8e6b…
10-20 08:14:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5852d0…
10-20 08:12:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x86dd24…
10-20 07:59:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc618fd…
10-20 07:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x177651…
10-20 07:44:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0f57eb…
10-20 07:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xabff41…
10-20 06:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xeb835d…
10-20 06:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x6d70f4…
10-20 06:27:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb12729…
10-20 06:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xc46e3f…
10-20 05:42:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x637027…
10-20 05:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xbbbc83…
10-20 05:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x25937d…
10-20 04:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x1ceb35…
10-20 03:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xa62b0d…
10-20 02:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xbc3409…
10-20 02:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xbf6dd6…
10-19 23:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x2ccbec…
10-19 23:27:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xa138a6…
10-19 22:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x9e0be7…
10-19 22:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xc9ad34…
10-19 21:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x8ab0f9…
10-19 21:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xb3f9fc…
10-19 21:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x00a1c2…
10-19 19:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x28cce2…
10-19 19:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xbd46c6…
10-16 08:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0x6dd150…
10-16 08:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x1d4dc3…
10-16 08:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x86a471…
10-16 08:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0xc2d29b…
10-16 07:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xd41dbe…
10-16 07:41:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xeb9acc…
10-14 22:14:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 22:00 UTC	Down	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1fb713…
10-14 22:13:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 22:00 UTC	Up	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x05462a…
10-14 21:43:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 21:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	19¢	$0	0xf1d92b…
10-14 21:43:36	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 21:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xe7df41…
10-14 21:19:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9ac70d…
10-14 21:18:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xec16b6…
10-14 20:43:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x78f824…
10-14 20:29:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 20:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xd8bbd9…
10-14 20:29:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 20:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xbbe596…
10-14 20:14:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:10 UTC	Down	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x55f9d4…
10-14 20:14:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 20:10 UTC	Up	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xd32803…
10-14 19:58:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x4f2587…
10-14 19:58:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 19:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xcdb91c…
10-14 19:58:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 19:55 UTC	Up	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x2e8472…
10-14 19:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xc83804…
10-14 19:43:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-14 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xb8bc34…