Dull-Tandem — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$125

Unrealized P&L

+$108

Hit rate

34.5%

Resolved

Trades

339

lifetime

Volume

$25.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$737

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-30 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

43% 50% $-125

Politics

34% — —

Crypto

21% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+507	$342	73¢	$370	+$28	06-04 17:18
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+420	$151	45¢	$189	+$38	06-02 20:28
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-249	$-220	72¢	$-178	+$42	06-30 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	17	$3.0K	2,060	1,800	+260	open	—	02-27 15:00
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$2.7K	4,200	4,200	+0	open	—	03-29 14:50
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$2.0K	1,130	1,130	+0	open	—	03-10 11:21
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	16	$1.9K	1,573	1,573	+0	open	—	02-26 13:21
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	30	$1.8K	1,291	1,288	+3	open	—	02-16 15:29
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	12	$1.5K	1,046	739	+307	open	—	01-31 20:08
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	01-10 10:06
spx opens up or down on february 25 2026	22	$1.0K	544	644	-100	open	—	02-25 13:02
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$894	857	700	+157	open	—	02-28 21:01
spx opens up or down on february 6 2026	10	$811	912	1,100	-188	open	—	02-06 08:12
megaeth fdv above 1b one day after launch	2	$796	500	490	+10	open	—	04-24 15:07
will company b be accused of insider trading	2	$519	455	455	+0	open	—	02-25 09:23
btc updown 15m 1767346200	13	$473	500	500	+0	open	—	01-02 09:30
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?	1	$439	0	771	-771	open	—	01-06 20:03
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$395	200	200	+0	open	—	01-24 07:29
btc updown 15m 1767337200	6	$380	400	400	+0	open	—	01-02 06:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	3	$372	240	240	+0	open	—	05-15 19:21
btc updown 15m 1767338100	10	$345	650	50	+600	open	—	01-02 07:15
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$342	507	0	+507	open	—	06-04 17:18
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	28	$333	397	450	-53	open	—	05-18 09:57
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	8	$319	270	240	+30	open	—	05-09 13:55
btc updown 15m 1767356100	7	$318	600	600	+0	open	—	01-02 12:30
btc updown 15m 1767343500	6	$318	600	300	+300	open	—	01-02 08:57
highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	16	$304	201	201	+0	open	—	04-17 19:09
btc updown 15m 1767276900	5	$303	600	300	+300	open	—	01-01 14:28
btc updown 15m 1767265200	10	$300	600	0	+600	open	—	01-01 10:56
btc updown 15m 1767340800	5	$300	600	0	+600	open	—	01-02 07:54
btc updown 15m 1767278700	11	$297	600	0	+600	open	—	01-01 14:45
btc updown 15m 1767347100	10	$296	600	0	+600	open	—	01-02 09:39
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	3	$291	1,339	1,339	+0	open	—	01-16 02:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 17:44:43	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x87c13d…
06-05 10:48:49	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	86¢	$42	0x62b785…
06-04 17:18:15	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xd303dd…
06-03 08:29:56	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	240	68¢	$163	0xc6ba6e…
06-02 21:12:10	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	167	69¢	$115	0xc221b4…
06-02 20:28:28	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	140	36¢	$50	0x11ec5a…
06-02 20:28:12	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	280	36¢	$101	0xcc3a4b…
05-18 09:57:48	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	SELL	450	22¢	$99	0x4a7d58…
05-18 00:52:02	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x6206bb…
05-17 22:31:46	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x4abaf4…
05-17 22:31:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0xbea758…
05-17 18:22:22	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x4b4849…
05-17 18:01:59	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xb36107…
05-17 17:07:45	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xb39db7…
05-17 16:41:20	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x563251…
05-17 14:29:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x59d3ab…
05-17 14:18:09	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x64f239…
05-17 13:53:36	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0x4a841f…
05-17 12:34:59	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x886de1…
05-17 10:53:15	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xeeda69…
05-17 10:26:03	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0x91a66d…
05-17 10:02:25	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$3	0xaa9712…
05-17 09:04:00	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0xef56bd…
05-17 09:01:12	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9a5514…
05-16 21:25:12	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x693bc7…
05-16 15:31:26	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$4	0x5213be…
05-16 14:54:15	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xe6c69f…
05-16 11:30:13	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x96f4e2…
05-16 10:35:25	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xa9aae6…
05-16 10:11:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	4	59¢	$2	0xd4a3c4…
05-16 09:44:28	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	29	59¢	$17	0x1bef96…
05-16 09:22:16	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0xed7659…
05-16 07:38:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x702f69…
05-16 07:07:49	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x52ecb3…
05-15 19:21:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	75¢	$116	0xf791fe…
05-15 18:36:51	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x8d6d2a…
05-15 17:39:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	79¢	$68	0x39df45…
05-15 15:26:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	78¢	$188	0xd931bf…
05-09 13:55:48	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	106	52¢	$55	0x0b0432…
05-09 13:52:02	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x4fdc6b…
05-09 13:51:02	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0x3f08a4…
05-09 13:20:44	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	140	64¢	$90	0x25e91f…
05-08 22:01:52	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	58	62¢	$36	0x144955…
05-08 21:32:35	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$2	0x561890…
05-08 21:14:20	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	38	62¢	$24	0xe517d3…
05-08 14:42:04	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	64	73¢	$47	0x5fc748…
05-08 14:29:16	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	130	73¢	$95	0x33851e…
05-08 14:20:40	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	60	77¢	$46	0xe97288…
05-08 13:29:46	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	11	79¢	$9	0x92a2a2…
05-08 13:18:36	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0xee0ba6…
05-08 13:07:50	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xa6bdb4…
05-08 12:38:30	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xdb86e1…
05-08 11:46:58	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	SELL	208	37¢	$77	0xd3d8da…
05-06 13:41:04	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x7cd678…
05-06 13:41:00	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x7a6745…
05-06 13:40:52	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x5e0eb9…
05-06 13:40:48	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x41f383…
05-06 13:40:44	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x1b1e8d…
05-06 13:40:40	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x43808b…
05-06 13:40:36	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xefe7af…
05-06 13:40:32	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x3b5c68…
05-06 13:40:02	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x1507d2…
05-06 13:39:58	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x2e98c3…
05-06 13:39:54	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xea8c83…
05-06 13:39:54	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x06d186…
05-06 13:39:50	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x5fb15c…
05-06 13:39:46	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x6474e9…
05-06 13:39:42	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xeb07a3…
05-06 13:38:18	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x45c9cd…
05-06 13:38:12	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x2df6a6…
05-06 13:34:40	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x2a8dd1…
05-06 12:54:02	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	80	78¢	$62	0xa5c0c2…
04-26 19:27:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	140	53¢	$74	0x6efb60…
04-24 15:07:26	megaeth fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	490	88¢	$431	0xf93ba8…
04-22 14:03:46	megaeth fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	500	73¢	$365	0x2e2e26…
04-20 16:58:52	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	440	52¢	$229	0xd461a3…
04-17 22:29:58	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	SELL	18	70¢	$13	0xa14cd2…
04-17 22:00:08	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xd4e083…
04-17 21:56:20	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xaadc14…
04-17 21:37:58	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x23211f…
04-17 21:00:08	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x0a6fb9…
04-17 20:11:40	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x151ae2…
04-17 20:00:08	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xa8cded…
04-17 19:09:30	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	SELL	201	76¢	$152	0xed702f…
04-17 19:04:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0x241fc5…
04-17 19:02:52	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	14	77¢	$10	0x531ad8…
04-17 19:00:10	highest temperature in beijing on april 18 2026 28c	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x3bc705…
04-17 18:40:58	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	17	75¢	$13	0x4bcec9…
04-17 18:40:48	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x065ff2…
04-17 18:40:44	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xde56c7…
04-17 18:31:50	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x4837d9…
04-17 18:31:04	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x82b97e…
04-17 18:30:38	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x1d0b0f…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0xfb05f6…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xc361a0…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x96b5e8…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x4abdcd…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x3e9b2e…
04-17 18:11:10	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x2251e7…
04-17 17:48:26	highest temperature in seoul on april 18 2026 21corhigher	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xc6e4a1…