Direct-Model — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$514

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 05-08 13:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

73% 50% +$2

Politics

13% 100% +$8

Crypto

13% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	11	$108	80	90	-10	open	—	04-24 21:04
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$107	50	60	-10	Yes	+$3	05-02 05:29
Kash Patel out by April 30?	5	$43	50	0	+50	open	—	04-27 12:02
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	4	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	04-25 05:29
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?	2	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	04-25 04:08
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 08:57
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	1	$17	20	0	+20	Yes	+$3	05-07 14:23
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	6	$16	15	20	-5	open	—	05-07 01:06
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	2	$16	18	0	+18	open	—	04-24 06:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$15	20	0	+20	No	+$5	05-05 14:23
another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-29 11:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-28 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 06:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	5	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	2	$10	10	10	+0	open	—	04-29 04:25
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-25 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	04-28 14:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	6	$9	20	0	+20	open	—	04-29 05:55
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	2	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-27 18:11
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-27 15:51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$9	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 14:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	3	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	04-28 14:15
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	3	$3	10	10	+0	open	—	04-25 02:39
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	2	$1	10	0	+10	Up	$-1	05-08 13:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 13:58:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x2bfa43…
05-08 13:47:32	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x860733…
05-07 14:23:18	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x4c6d6f…
05-07 01:06:58	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x2bb47c…
05-06 23:08:23	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x6b0c6e…
05-06 17:00:00	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0xef0549…
05-05 14:23:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x9fc564…
05-02 05:29:40	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x19901f…
05-01 12:09:02	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x46c1e6…
05-01 11:32:28	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xdd8205…
05-01 11:32:28	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x9a7d5b…
05-01 11:26:36	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x353bc1…
04-30 12:22:58	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x866ccd…
04-29 11:31:16	another critical cloudflare incident by april 30 2026	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb624f8…
04-29 08:57:52	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xc7337a…
04-29 08:57:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xe257e4…
04-29 06:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x06ad85…
04-29 05:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xe85f68…
04-29 05:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	47¢	$0	0xbcedbb…
04-29 05:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xa710f0…
04-29 05:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	47¢	$1	0x410838…
04-29 05:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xcac5a8…
04-29 05:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb5ff59…
04-29 05:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$3	0x893827…
04-29 04:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x78b2c8…
04-29 04:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xeeb5e0…
04-29 04:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x834a26…
04-29 04:27:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x91d427…
04-29 04:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0x5396d9…
04-29 04:25:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xd19784…
04-29 04:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xbe9335…
04-28 14:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x24e5a3…
04-28 14:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xa18672…
04-28 14:20:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x785e8e…
04-28 14:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xebb6ee…
04-28 14:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x25dee0…
04-28 14:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2d3cf1…
04-28 14:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0xdca698…
04-28 14:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x9133c6…
04-28 14:12:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x225128…
04-28 14:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x00363f…
04-27 18:11:14	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x028ad2…
04-27 16:23:42	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xfc17e5…
04-27 15:51:24	Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x1e4c88…
04-27 12:02:40	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x146d82…
04-25 20:50:06	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x03f55a…
04-25 20:48:06	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0xeaba8f…
04-25 15:23:38	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0x5e522f…
04-25 15:20:54	Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x4319e2…
04-25 14:26:02	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x113867…
04-25 05:29:52	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xeadcef…
04-25 04:08:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa6b439…
04-25 02:40:56	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$19	0x81d3da…
04-25 02:39:40	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xad56bc…
04-24 21:04:52	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	25	50¢	$12	0x573f73…
04-24 18:09:02	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	Yes	SELL	25	70¢	$18	0x14652e…
04-24 17:34:48	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x8b037c…
04-24 17:33:26	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	Yes	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x2c64e9…
04-24 17:31:16	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	11	50¢	$5	0x349c2a…
04-24 17:30:34	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xaa3c50…
04-24 17:30:04	Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xccb4a2…
04-24 17:29:30	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x9de218…
04-24 17:15:14	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	1	50¢	$1	0xd0b769…
04-24 16:17:36	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa4fb95…
04-24 16:05:10	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	91¢	$8	0x1857f2…
04-24 16:05:06	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$1	0xcb6002…
04-24 15:07:56	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x3d439f…
04-24 14:24:40	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xfb816f…
04-24 13:47:28	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	SELL	25	87¢	$22	0x53fa68…
04-24 10:37:28	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xcdbc6b…
04-24 10:24:20	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xff6d2f…
04-24 10:00:10	Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3cbf7a…
04-24 06:13:36	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xaa54bf…
04-24 05:59:52	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x9b3843…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	16	$18.7K	2,201	05-24 02:35
Able-Outlet 0x77bd…e48f	16	$6.15K	1,944	05-07 22:00
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	15	$33.8K	2,270	05-04 13:09
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	15	$12.7K	1,427	05-23 21:06
(anonymous) 0x238f…3015	14	$703	496	05-23 23:14
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	13	$1.37M	1,754	05-17 06:59
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	13	$57.0K	1,311	05-24 02:09
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	13	$3.87K	1,062	05-06 09:35