Sparse-Effectiveness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$925

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,966

lifetime

Volume

$646.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$218

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-22 20:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

52% — —

Politics

35% 0% $-925

Crypto

9% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 227 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	95	$57.6K	142,438	116,438	+26,000	open	—	06-02 18:55
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	127	$47.6K	33,017	33,017	+0	open	—	01-30 15:51
starmer out by july 31 2026	144	$45.0K	41,668	29,455	+12,212	open	—	06-22 01:13
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	138	$23.8K	39,898	28,253	+11,645	open	—	06-22 00:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	93	$21.1K	27,956	29,920	-1,964	open	—	06-14 23:08
netanyahu out by march 31 854	8	$20.9K	15,000	7,000	+8,000	open	—	03-26 10:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	34	$20.7K	17,916	17,463	+453	open	—	04-07 22:23
will iran strike israel on march 10	37	$20.5K	10,361	10,361	+0	open	—	03-14 13:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	19	$20.1K	18,932	5,000	+13,932	open	—	04-07 23:11
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	4	$19.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	01-03 20:07
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	45	$18.1K	13,036	13,036	+0	open	—	04-12 12:40
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	45	$16.3K	17,278	697	+16,581	open	—	03-04 16:14
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	95	$16.0K	26,562	11,315	+15,247	open	—	05-14 10:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	24	$15.1K	11,500	5,500	+6,000	open	—	01-16 21:32
another us government shutdown by february 14	24	$13.0K	9,054	6,421	+2,633	open	—	02-11 19:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	23	$11.9K	9,518	9,518	+0	open	—	02-18 18:46
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	34	$11.8K	9,000	9,000	+0	open	—	07-07 09:07
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	4	$11.8K	12,000	0	+12,000	open	—	01-07 00:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	178	$11.3K	9,502	9,502	+0	open	—	06-22 21:53
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	50	$9.9K	24,689	12,134	+12,554	open	—	02-28 20:20
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	18	$7.3K	3,801	3,765	+35	open	—	06-28 14:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$6.9K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	04-07 22:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$6.7K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	04-07 22:15
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	13	$6.3K	6,012	2,167	+3,846	open	—	06-22 22:12
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	17	$6.2K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	02-05 17:50
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	3	$6.1K	0	8,331	-8,331	open	—	06-05 08:58
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	12	$5.9K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	04-21 06:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$5.4K	13,279	3,000	+10,279	open	—	05-28 13:02
starmer out by june 22 2026	19	$5.3K	3,538	3,538	+0	open	—	06-22 08:22
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	21	$5.0K	7,215	3,000	+4,215	open	—	06-19 18:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 20:17:57	cs2 fal2 100t 2026 07 22	Team Falcons	BUY	60	12¢	$8	0x8f170f…
07-22 20:17:55	cs2 fal2 100t 2026 07 22	Team Falcons	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xbeff42…
07-22 20:12:06	cs2 fal2 100t 2026 07 22	Team Falcons	BUY	44	48¢	$21	0xb34642…
07-22 20:11:55	cs2 fal2 100t 2026 07 22	Team Falcons	BUY	256	48¢	$124	0xf18b59…
07-22 14:19:52	atp hsu rottger 2026 07 22	Yu-Hsiou Hsu	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xbe4366…
07-22 14:15:51	itf preston broadus 2026 07 21	Savannah Broadus	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x0511f3…
07-22 13:40:57	wta salkova dodin 2026 07 22	Oceane Dodin	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf0ad3d…
07-21 20:11:15	atp tomic boyer 2026 07 20	Tristan Boyer	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x5eecaf…
07-20 10:57:09	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	2,780	96¢	$2,663	0x1a96e2…
07-19 18:32:31	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x862896…
07-19 18:31:30	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x5bc010…
07-18 07:28:27	will wes streeting be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533199	No	SELL	40	14¢	$6	0xf326b9…
07-16 18:31:08	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xc6bb1c…
07-16 18:11:52	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x8cc00b…
07-14 16:36:04	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x98376c…
07-14 16:34:28	will peter kyle be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533217	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xf8292d…
07-09 14:41:55	will wes streeting be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533199	No	SELL	434	13¢	$54	0xad9e5a…
07-09 03:10:31	will wes streeting be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533199	No	SELL	25	25¢	$6	0xcd9c3b…
07-08 20:55:56	will wes streeting be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533199	No	BUY	892	7¢	$60	0x53ec3c…
07-07 11:20:28	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x0158ce…
07-07 11:19:40	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	77	54¢	$42	0x71f5f4…
07-07 11:18:40	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	56	54¢	$30	0x52bc19…
07-07 11:18:34	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	87	54¢	$47	0xa9d1b4…
07-07 11:13:28	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	50	65¢	$32	0xeeb6f5…
07-07 11:12:38	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	19	65¢	$12	0x4f61cb…
07-07 11:12:26	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x4f760a…
07-07 11:12:26	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	22	65¢	$14	0x157d59…
07-07 09:07:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,381	85¢	$1,174	0xb48d9e…
07-07 08:30:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0xb74ffa…
07-07 08:29:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	140	86¢	$120	0x503758…
07-07 08:28:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xcffeee…
07-07 08:28:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xc22f13…
07-07 08:18:52	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	71	86¢	$61	0xbc4297…
07-07 08:18:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	116	86¢	$100	0xbd2e8e…
07-07 08:18:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	149	86¢	$128	0x340b68…
07-07 08:17:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	49	86¢	$42	0x06cc20…
07-07 08:15:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	466	86¢	$401	0xa12d39…
07-07 08:13:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	609	86¢	$523	0xef7da9…
07-07 01:12:58	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	59¢	$590	0x471859…
07-07 00:45:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	2,000	60¢	$1,200	0x815107…
07-07 00:44:40	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	1,000	39¢	$390	0x79abc0…
07-07 00:37:14	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1,000	50¢	$500	0x80b572…
07-07 00:36:56	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,958	45¢	$881	0x45e5c3…
07-07 00:36:50	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	44	45¢	$20	0xcf93b9…
07-07 00:36:41	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	30	45¢	$14	0x198938…
07-07 00:36:37	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x7f2ffa…
07-07 00:36:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0xe75445…
07-07 00:36:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xe396d6…
07-07 00:36:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,268	45¢	$571	0x8cb5a3…
07-07 00:35:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x8781ac…
07-07 00:35:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	204	49¢	$100	0x5f0269…
07-07 00:35:23	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1,371	49¢	$672	0x33f08b…
07-07 00:27:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	101	60¢	$61	0x81171f…
07-07 00:27:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0xe56694…
07-07 00:27:19	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	1	60¢	$1	0xdec29f…
07-06 23:38:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	3,000	84¢	$2,520	0x313c9c…
07-06 21:57:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	27	87¢	$24	0x7e424d…
07-06 21:57:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	244	87¢	$212	0x3a1239…
07-06 21:57:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x738a0b…
07-06 21:56:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	722	87¢	$628	0x6c8bb8…
07-06 21:51:26	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	1,000	85¢	$850	0xdc48f6…
06-29 17:48:59	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	Yes	BUY	492	95¢	$467	0xa8fb0e…
06-29 17:15:58	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0x4bcdb1…
06-28 14:22:20	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	791	100¢	$790	0x571c60…
06-28 13:57:04	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x38829f…
06-28 13:48:31	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xf0bccd…
06-28 13:46:46	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x884aa9…
06-28 13:44:40	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	56	8¢	$4	0xbf90d6…
06-28 12:39:37	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x940609…
06-28 12:37:10	Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2,939	100¢	$2,936	0x2449e6…
06-28 12:34:46	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	Yes	BUY	1,283	91¢	$1,164	0x932820…
06-27 16:58:40	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0xe9ce49…
06-27 16:58:29	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	90	12¢	$11	0xd28fe2…
06-27 14:48:02	will rachel reeves be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533202	No	SELL	111	46¢	$51	0xe06348…
06-27 09:39:08	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	BUY	190	11¢	$21	0x63e292…
06-26 23:25:29	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xdf16be…
06-26 21:07:40	will rachel reeves be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533202	No	BUY	111	35¢	$39	0x6e5adf…
06-26 09:18:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,500	13¢	$194	0xcc664b…
06-26 08:09:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,500	13¢	$194	0x53b18f…
06-25 21:17:26	Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,233	31¢	$382	0x7a2f62…
06-25 12:21:23	burnham unopposed in 2026 labour leadership contest 20260622161338971	Yes	BUY	794	92¢	$731	0x580cfd…
06-24 17:19:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	52	4¢	$2	0x9e782c…
06-24 16:10:11	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x89e507…
06-24 15:56:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0xfa88b0…
06-24 15:34:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xfc5822…
06-24 14:21:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xc5dbd2…
06-24 12:59:52	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	4¢	$1	0xb13a1b…
06-24 12:16:44	Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	57	92¢	$53	0xfe08fa…
06-24 12:16:43	Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	348	92¢	$320	0x25a8a7…
06-24 09:42:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x2a4e1a…
06-24 09:31:40	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x8f5a56…
06-24 07:40:17	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x97f49b…
06-24 06:06:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xcd7a8a…
06-24 05:26:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	4¢	$1	0x0ecc50…
06-24 05:15:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x2b5474…
06-24 02:46:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0xee71fe…
06-24 02:03:11	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x088f9f…
06-24 01:21:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	142	4¢	$6	0x2478f3…
06-23 23:57:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xdda34f…
06-23 20:04:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xb317a1…