Fatherly-Backyard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

19,265

lifetime

Volume

$1.31M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$68

Open exposure

$45

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 07-12 16:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

65% 100% +$14

Politics

18% — —

Crypto

14% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 83 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+45	$44	98¢	$44	$-0	07-12 16:17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes		-14	$-1	4¢	$-1	+$0	06-08 15:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	250	$19.1K	11,409	7,919	+3,490	open	—	03-30 17:26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	209	$18.5K	9,976	8,780	+1,196	open	—	04-20 11:07
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	222	$16.9K	9,784	7,342	+2,442	open	—	03-28 01:41
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	158	$15.5K	8,133	7,534	+598	open	—	03-28 08:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	139	$13.9K	7,800	6,335	+1,465	open	—	04-15 11:43
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	287	$13.5K	7,203	6,401	+802	open	—	04-05 12:45
GTA VI released before June 2026?	302	$13.1K	7,165	6,199	+966	open	—	04-15 13:58
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	114	$12.0K	6,612	5,533	+1,079	open	—	03-14 20:00
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	156	$12.0K	6,742	5,406	+1,336	open	—	04-12 19:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	117	$11.8K	6,671	5,294	+1,377	open	—	03-30 21:27
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	132	$11.8K	6,911	5,002	+1,909	open	—	03-26 07:38
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	112	$11.6K	6,399	5,343	+1,056	open	—	03-18 07:53
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	107	$11.5K	6,113	5,458	+655	open	—	04-02 16:00
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	128	$11.0K	7,081	4,059	+3,021	open	—	03-31 03:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	139	$10.8K	6,129	4,851	+1,278	open	—	04-20 11:06
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	168	$10.2K	5,379	4,982	+397	open	—	03-30 12:34
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	139	$9.9K	5,232	4,825	+406	open	—	03-30 04:22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	98	$9.8K	5,499	4,427	+1,072	open	—	04-20 11:03
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	117	$9.7K	5,577	4,268	+1,309	open	—	03-30 04:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	98	$9.6K	5,884	3,818	+2,066	open	—	04-05 07:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	109	$9.5K	5,252	4,289	+963	open	—	04-20 11:08
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	85	$9.1K	4,605	4,584	+20	open	—	03-29 10:23
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	134	$9.0K	5,041	4,082	+959	open	—	03-31 20:10
Netanyahu out by April 30?	106	$9.0K	5,124	4,005	+1,119	open	—	04-17 08:16
netanyahu out by march 31 854	75	$8.9K	4,967	4,002	+965	open	—	03-31 06:12
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	76	$8.5K	4,712	3,883	+829	open	—	03-30 02:40
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	117	$8.0K	4,346	3,807	+539	open	—	03-30 13:01
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	110	$7.8K	4,433	3,531	+903	open	—	03-28 12:19
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	102	$7.7K	3,956	3,825	+131	open	—	03-27 09:44
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	80	$7.4K	4,023	3,548	+475	open	—	02-21 03:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 16:17:43	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xa85a54…
06-30 00:18:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x6021bd…
06-30 00:08:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x4cda77…
06-29 23:52:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0x582802…
06-29 23:30:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc72ff8…
06-29 23:29:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x81b29d…
06-29 23:29:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xdb0f2c…
06-29 23:28:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xb75dc2…
06-29 23:25:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xd41a29…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:55:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x706fb5…
06-29 15:32:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xff4a5b…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xe5a214…
06-29 15:16:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x5adc0a…
06-29 15:10:23	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xc88d10…
06-29 15:09:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xee93ab…
06-29 14:41:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x1c8952…
06-29 14:39:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0xff1abf…
06-29 14:33:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x787cd7…
06-29 14:32:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xf123dc…
06-29 14:32:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x3063d0…
06-29 14:26:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x932c1d…
06-29 14:25:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x84f591…
06-29 14:19:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x743ee6…
06-29 14:14:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xfce7e6…
06-29 14:12:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x20bfb9…
06-29 14:06:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x75a410…
06-29 13:51:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xf9c350…
06-29 13:02:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x45ccf1…
06-29 12:17:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x220cfd…
06-29 11:45:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0xc64065…
06-29 11:17:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0xfcf5b5…
06-29 11:13:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x1ce52b…
06-29 08:01:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xfbd073…
06-29 08:01:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x89fadb…
06-29 07:56:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xd01ef1…
06-29 07:47:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0xc6603f…
06-29 07:46:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x77feb9…
06-29 07:42:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x34bdab…
06-29 04:01:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xf08fda…
06-29 03:28:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x027be4…
06-29 02:36:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xeb2fbc…
06-29 02:10:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xe78eda…
06-29 02:05:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x609118…
06-29 02:00:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x73285e…
06-29 01:43:47	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x6930e5…
06-29 01:34:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x54e54b…
06-29 01:06:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x0217b6…
06-28 18:19:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xf92e72…
06-28 18:08:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x46296f…
06-28 16:51:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xda3f5e…
06-28 16:49:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x75d92b…
06-28 16:37:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0xeb5367…
06-28 15:55:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0xd92abb…
06-28 15:55:19	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x3a8ebb…
06-28 15:40:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0xa278c5…
06-28 15:27:28	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xc9ffed…
06-28 15:18:08	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x04db55…
06-28 14:47:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0xd9dbf2…
06-28 13:00:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0x1793bd…
06-28 12:47:05	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x7063cf…
06-28 12:37:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x9068ae…
06-28 12:16:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xe469da…
06-28 12:13:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xc3ef87…
06-28 12:10:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x61561d…
06-28 11:25:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x6b6002…
06-28 08:59:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	97¢	$22	0x8dadf5…
06-28 08:50:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x560280…
06-28 08:28:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x478be2…
06-28 08:22:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x4bb892…
06-28 08:15:32	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0x23b3f1…
06-28 08:12:25	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x677de5…
06-26 20:06:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x9267cb…
06-25 12:12:53	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x932a76…
06-25 00:01:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x8b1ec4…
06-23 21:20:23	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x3c4407…
06-23 09:13:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x00fca7…
06-23 09:10:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfb443b…
06-23 06:18:23	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x67c1a5…
06-23 05:08:53	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x822c48…
06-23 04:48:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x6c3241…
06-23 03:47:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xeebe2b…
06-22 23:37:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xa32778…
06-22 08:33:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x69d14e…
06-22 08:32:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x9baadd…
06-22 08:31:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x19094a…
06-22 08:31:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xc9b525…
06-22 08:28:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xb22a59…
06-22 08:28:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x117c73…
06-22 08:26:14	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x139de7…
06-22 08:25:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0x6a1607…
06-22 08:25:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0xcbb357…
06-22 08:25:29	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x99ee5e…
06-22 08:25:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x939929…
06-22 08:23:20	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0xec6bea…
06-22 08:23:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xd36162…
06-22 08:20:32	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x59c59b…
06-22 08:20:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x6aeae7…
06-22 08:19:38	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xacbb33…