Ordinary-Miscommunication — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.23K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-02 08:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

64% 50% +$12

Other

29% 0% $-0

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	6	$3.1K	4,072	235	+3,837	open	—	05-24 14:13
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$996	1,609	1,609	+0	open	—	05-12 08:17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$912	3,905	3,905	+0	Yes	+$12	05-08 18:49
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	19	$830	1,603	1,603	+0	open	—	03-28 07:50
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	5	$549	472	472	+0	open	—	03-11 13:32
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	2	$500	951	0	+951	open	—	04-20 20:31
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	3	$396	303	303	+0	open	—	03-12 12:15
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	2	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	04-13 21:32
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	2	$200	106	106	+0	open	—	04-18 15:21
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	2	$198	116	116	+0	open	—	05-15 18:21
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$198	114	114	+0	open	—	04-23 21:23
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$197	321	321	+0	open	—	03-05 16:19
will bahrain strike iran by march 31	2	$196	417	417	+0	open	—	03-13 19:55
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$194	111	111	+0	open	—	03-25 17:44
kristi noem out by march 31	2	$188	132	132	+0	open	—	03-05 18:04
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$184	585	585	+0	open	—	05-09 14:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	4	$130	1,767	100	+1,667	open	—	06-02 08:33
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	3	$45	815	815	+0	open	—	04-23 14:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$6	9	9	+0	open	—	03-20 22:19
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	2	$6	7	7	+0	Yes	$-0	03-22 10:01
will iran strike dimona by march 31	2	$5	18	18	+0	open	—	03-21 19:41
will turkey strike iran by march 31	4	$4	52	52	+0	open	—	03-20 22:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$2	9	9	+0	open	—	03-31 20:10
will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-20 19:22
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	03-20 22:19
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	2	$2	7	7	+0	open	—	03-20 19:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	2	$2	12	12	+0	No	$-0	05-06 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	2	$2	125	125	+0	open	—	04-23 14:47
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	2	$1	100	100	+0	open	—	04-28 14:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 08:33:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0x2f3e0b…
06-01 12:08:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0xfcbbd9…
06-01 12:06:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	69¢	$63	0x329d59…
06-01 12:01:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xf34161…
05-24 14:13:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	233	46¢	$107	0x337146…
05-24 14:12:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	233	43¢	$100	0xd33122…
05-23 20:32:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xb76b59…
05-23 20:31:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,711	75¢	$2,767	0x836e58…
05-23 18:39:53	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x0004a5…
05-23 18:31:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8600db…
05-15 18:21:43	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	SELL	116	84¢	$98	0x9e85c6…
05-15 18:21:20	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x01723f…
05-12 08:17:46	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,609	31¢	$496	0x68b102…
05-12 08:17:34	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,609	31¢	$500	0x5ad135…
05-09 14:31:00	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	585	14¢	$84	0x54a82a…
05-09 14:29:17	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	585	17¢	$100	0x77ae9e…
05-08 18:49:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	455	55¢	$248	0xea55a2…
05-08 18:46:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	455	55¢	$250	0x402528…
05-06 10:27:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0x4214e1…
05-06 10:27:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc7164c…
05-04 19:23:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,450	6¢	$214	0x971ecd…
05-04 18:47:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,726	6¢	$100	0x9cd4a7…
05-04 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,724	6¢	$100	0x957c7e…
04-28 14:16:44	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xa6c8b2…
04-28 13:59:02	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x574faa…
04-23 21:23:46	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	111	86¢	$96	0x73e187…
04-23 21:21:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x501e4b…
04-23 21:12:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xdebdbb…
04-23 21:11:24	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x633e77…
04-23 14:47:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	Yes	SELL	125	1¢	$1	0xb6155f…
04-23 14:42:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xc280bc…
04-23 14:13:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	755	2¢	$18	0x2fac96…
04-23 14:13:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$1	0x73eadc…
04-23 14:10:32	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	815	3¢	$25	0xa3fdad…
04-20 20:31:24	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	BUY	369	68¢	$250	0x94aaa0…
04-20 20:30:58	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	BUY	582	43¢	$250	0xe42860…
04-18 15:21:46	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	94¢	$100	0x7635c9…
04-17 20:24:02	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xc34d7a…
04-13 21:32:11	Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x5390e6…
04-13 21:29:23	Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x04a906…
03-31 20:10:37	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	9	12¢	$1	0x624105…
03-31 18:44:23	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa50960…
03-28 07:50:17	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	508	26¢	$132	0x25f373…
03-28 07:50:11	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	77	26¢	$20	0xbbb32b…
03-28 07:49:53	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	175	26¢	$45	0x7db4bd…
03-28 07:49:41	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	26¢	$4	0xcbba2a…
03-28 07:49:41	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x31a57b…
03-28 07:49:35	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0x4eb448…
03-28 07:49:27	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	115	26¢	$30	0xd61991…
03-28 07:49:23	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	38	26¢	$10	0xfe2229…
03-28 07:48:45	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	338	26¢	$88	0x08070e…
03-28 07:46:17	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x4db200…
03-28 07:43:25	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	154	32¢	$49	0xda673d…
03-28 07:43:05	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	23	32¢	$7	0xb7ba95…
03-28 07:41:15	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	32¢	$10	0x4369a6…
03-28 07:33:23	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	46	26¢	$12	0x1fad4d…
03-28 07:18:45	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	360	28¢	$100	0x5e52b9…
03-28 07:17:57	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	366	27¢	$100	0x8537cc…
03-28 07:17:21	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	436	23¢	$100	0xbfa834…
03-28 07:16:33	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc1d63e…
03-28 07:15:59	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	437	23¢	$100	0x817337…
03-25 17:44:55	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	111	85¢	$94	0xb65322…
03-25 17:42:23	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x705967…
03-22 10:01:17	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x517b28…
03-22 10:00:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x3499f1…
03-21 19:41:49	will iran strike dimona by march 31	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xfa4054…
03-21 19:40:07	will iran strike dimona by march 31	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x3f2568…
03-20 22:19:15	US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x6baef3…
03-20 22:19:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x488b76…
03-20 22:19:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x56c363…
03-20 22:18:59	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xfa79d8…
03-20 20:03:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xbe66d7…
03-20 20:03:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x50d364…
03-20 19:53:31	US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x89d600…
03-20 19:53:21	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xbc1eba…
03-20 19:50:11	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xe4465f…
03-20 19:49:41	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe13b6b…
03-20 19:27:51	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xfaee6a…
03-20 19:27:23	will turkey strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x59357e…
03-20 19:22:43	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xda29db…
03-20 19:18:59	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x994891…
03-13 19:55:13	will bahrain strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	417	23¢	$96	0xc5f1ab…
03-13 19:54:15	will bahrain strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0xdaaf69…
03-12 12:15:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	SELL	303	65¢	$196	0x6aef73…
03-12 12:13:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x3b2bb2…
03-12 12:13:41	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	Yes	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x0a85e0…
03-11 13:32:39	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	SELL	372	50¢	$185	0xbe1dae…
03-11 13:20:19	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	BUY	142	71¢	$100	0x15c55c…
03-11 13:20:11	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x89d25f…
03-11 13:02:11	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x67b8ca…
03-11 12:55:17	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0x4b0ea7…
03-05 18:04:59	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	SELL	132	67¢	$88	0x222699…
03-05 18:03:41	kristi noem out by march 31	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x0a9301…
03-05 16:19:35	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	321	30¢	$97	0x533ba1…
03-05 16:18:39	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	321	31¢	$100	0xd0d93c…