Useless-Lily — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$99

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

66.8%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$80

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-11 11:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

28% 100% +$1

Crypto

16% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes		-591	$-70	6¢	$-37	+$33	06-11 11:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	6	$1.1K	631	631	+0	open	—	03-12 22:17
iran strike on us military by february 28	2	$603	305	305	+0	open	—	03-01 07:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$507	366	233	+133	open	—	01-30 12:21
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	2	$500	506	0	+506	open	—	03-29 13:14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$467	338	338	+0	open	—	02-03 20:23
us strikes iraq by february 28	10	$410	654	654	+0	open	—	03-04 13:36
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$406	310	107	+203	open	—	03-26 10:16
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	8	$361	260	260	+0	open	—	04-16 20:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$300	343	0	+343	open	—	04-18 11:24
will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	5	$282	465	0	+465	open	—	03-07 15:33
will israel strike lebanon on january 30 2026	4	$259	289	289	+0	open	—	01-30 11:28
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	2	$251	156	156	+0	open	—	04-24 16:26
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$250	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-05 15:34
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	9	$238	1,545	1,545	+0	open	—	02-08 21:22
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	6	$233	500	449	+51	open	—	03-13 12:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	3	$231	140	140	+0	open	—	04-11 08:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	4	$227	210	210	+0	open	—	04-17 13:02
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$227	244	244	+0	open	—	03-10 13:12
will israel strike lebanon on january 28 2026	2	$226	133	133	+0	open	—	01-29 21:27
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$225	159	159	+0	open	—	03-10 09:56
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	2	$218	182	182	+0	open	—	03-12 22:22
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	4	$217	196	196	+0	open	—	02-04 17:06
will hyperliquid hit 42 in january	2	$207	109	109	+0	open	—	01-29 21:27
will ethereum dip to 2600 in january 2026 489	3	$207	167	167	+0	open	—	01-31 13:32
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	2	$207	114	114	+0	open	—	01-31 08:35
will hyperliquid dip to 16 in january	2	$206	107	107	+0	open	—	01-28 11:13
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	2	$206	128	128	+0	open	—	01-28 11:39
will iran strike turkey in march	2	$206	121	121	+0	open	—	03-06 13:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$203	104	104	+0	open	—	02-28 21:38
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$202	105	105	+0	open	—	02-27 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 11:15:27	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	12¢	$5	0xdf0ccf…
06-08 05:52:46	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	462	12¢	$55	0x49b552…
05-29 20:05:23	US military draft authorized in 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	11¢	$10	0xa310df…
05-28 20:07:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0xec60f4…
05-28 20:04:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,055	9¢	$100	0x9b97ad…
05-28 20:02:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x4779d9…
05-06 18:45:42	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	189	53¢	$100	0xb05fc7…
04-26 19:11:06	Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x270ad5…
04-24 16:26:56	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	120	84¢	$101	0x12204e…
04-24 16:26:00	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	156	96¢	$151	0x445fff…
04-19 23:32:46	Will Solana dip to $70 in April?	Yes	SELL	82	15¢	$12	0xa3fe34…
04-19 04:40:50	Will Solana dip to $70 in April?	Yes	SELL	234	14¢	$33	0xb606d8…
04-18 17:26:50	Will Solana dip to $70 in April?	Yes	SELL	468	11¢	$51	0x22033c…
04-18 11:27:46	Will Solana dip to $70 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,001	10¢	$100	0x71a144…
04-18 11:27:02	Will Solana dip to $60 in April?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xe36b16…
04-18 11:24:04	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0x1c50dc…
04-17 13:02:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	72¢	$75	0x0cb35f…
04-16 20:20:22	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	260	100¢	$260	0x03ecd0…
04-16 16:04:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	50¢	$39	0x98acf4…
04-16 16:04:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	50¢	$13	0x6f6a2f…
04-16 15:43:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	48¢	$100	0xc993d8…
04-16 15:42:32	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x5be1df…
04-11 14:00:09	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	39¢	$34	0x2e91a1…
04-11 13:14:55	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0xc288eb…
04-11 12:26:35	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	39¢	$19	0xf1697c…
04-11 11:01:13	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x4ba884…
04-11 10:39:33	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	39¢	$32	0xe9cd3b…
04-11 09:13:19	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x38a290…
04-11 08:41:25	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xb738a3…
04-11 08:36:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x9213ec…
04-11 08:34:29	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	94¢	$66	0xf3e2f7…
04-07 23:39:19	Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0xb95fbb…
04-04 10:39:51	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	81¢	$57	0xe5a5de…
03-29 17:52:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	294	28¢	$82	0xe08092…
03-29 17:16:14	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	BUY	140	77¢	$108	0x4e9e3c…
03-29 14:22:40	EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x52508f…
03-29 13:51:40	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	BUY	291	34¢	$100	0x08e838…
03-29 13:14:32	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	301	100¢	$300	0x730249…
03-29 13:11:42	will google have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 941	Yes	SELL	386	0¢	$0	0x3b605a…
03-29 13:11:08	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	185	1¢	$1	0xfc0e2c…
03-26 10:16:31	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	107	100¢	$106	0x3e67e3…
03-22 05:05:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	SELL	156	40¢	$62	0x1ef424…
03-20 12:14:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	294	34¢	$100	0xc08402…
03-19 22:32:07	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x10b706…
03-19 22:25:39	us iran nuclear deal by march 31	No	BUY	205	98¢	$200	0x5b4831…
03-19 22:23:07	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x179a66…
03-19 22:00:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x33f19e…
03-14 16:02:17	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x987091…
03-13 12:38:07	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	188	25¢	$47	0x5eed5f…
03-13 08:08:01	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x3d8670…
03-12 22:22:03	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	182	65¢	$118	0x72144a…
03-12 22:17:33	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	158	96¢	$152	0x6e858a…
03-12 15:38:03	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	158	88¢	$139	0xecc6c6…
03-12 05:53:31	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	81	37¢	$30	0x39c060…
03-11 16:03:11	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	39	33¢	$13	0x15651d…
03-11 16:01:41	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0xcd1a01…
03-11 15:36:43	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	SELL	125	30¢	$38	0x97b93b…
03-11 09:28:35	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	SELL	315	92¢	$290	0xce7ff3…
03-10 23:39:59	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	302	75¢	$227	0x7798d6…
03-10 23:39:45	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	98	75¢	$73	0xf113c5…
03-10 21:27:41	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x2ab498…
03-10 21:24:23	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x3f0255…
03-10 21:18:37	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	231	87¢	$200	0x76cfb2…
03-10 21:11:11	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x3c3997…
03-10 15:46:47	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	SELL	70	1¢	$1	0x536d46…
03-10 15:44:01	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	SELL	258	2¢	$5	0xa0078c…
03-10 15:43:57	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x484ddb…
03-10 15:43:39	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	SELL	1,000	2¢	$20	0x0a27ce…
03-10 15:43:05	bitcoin above 72k on march 10	Yes	BUY	5,042	2¢	$100	0x8da5cc…
03-10 13:12:13	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	242	52¢	$126	0x230668…
03-10 09:56:13	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xe3b79a…
03-10 09:49:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x4b5cda…
03-10 09:44:47	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x56125c…
03-09 13:15:23	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x6b0430…
03-09 13:07:59	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x309bcc…
03-09 13:05:43	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5abe56…
03-09 13:05:33	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x29a4b6…
03-09 13:05:05	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xd97bbd…
03-09 13:04:39	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf234c7…
03-09 13:04:05	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe258e3…
03-09 13:03:59	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf81204…
03-09 12:58:27	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x542321…
03-09 12:55:43	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x98a178…
03-09 12:45:01	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x1e9540…
03-09 12:45:01	Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x01b921…
03-08 18:52:53	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0x47f491…
03-07 19:41:37	will trump declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	SELL	28	92¢	$26	0xe4b197…
03-07 15:33:37	will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x359248…
03-07 15:33:19	will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xa975dd…
03-07 15:32:53	will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	Yes	BUY	51	45¢	$23	0x1819ff…
03-07 15:30:17	will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	Yes	BUY	38	45¢	$17	0x94fadd…
03-07 15:23:07	will iran strike a gulf state on march 4	Yes	BUY	265	75¢	$200	0x956210…
03-06 13:52:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x3cbf59…
03-06 13:50:59	will iran strike turkey in march	No	SELL	121	88¢	$106	0xd14728…
03-04 18:37:55	us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x785721…
03-04 18:35:13	will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xb584eb…
03-04 18:30:43	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x5c8c72…
03-04 15:04:43	qatarenergy resumes lng production by march 14	No	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0xef3ec9…
03-04 14:59:25	qatarenergy resumes lng production by march 14	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xeb3092…
03-04 14:57:23	qatarenergy resumes lng production by march 14	No	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x25a8a1…