Unsteady-Notebook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$91

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.1%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-02 13:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

61% 50% +$48

Politics

39% 100% +$43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5.0K	5,023	0	+5,023	open	—	04-20 14:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$1.5K	2,437	2,437	+0	open	—	05-07 08:08
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	6	$1.3K	3,860	4,380	-520	No	+$43	05-07 08:10
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	21	$918	1,048	836	+212	Down	$-11	05-07 06:07
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	10	$560	800	800	+0	open	—	07-02 13:54
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	19	$517	421	512	-90	Up	+$59	05-07 08:03
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$249	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-12 11:34
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	16	$226	3,007	3,007	+0	open	—	06-12 11:34
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	17	$202	1,873	1,873	+0	open	—	06-12 10:11
will ink launch a token by september 30 2026	1	$168	205	0	+205	open	—	06-23 01:00
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	2	$163	223	223	+0	open	—	07-02 13:25
will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	11	$141	1,211	1,211	+0	open	—	06-12 11:32
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$107	110	0	+110	open	—	05-07 08:13
will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	5	$79	932	932	+0	open	—	06-12 10:10
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$76	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 09:59
will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	2	$70	100	100	+0	open	—	06-12 10:06
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	8	$68	137	137	+0	open	—	06-12 10:07
will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	12	$61	1,193	1,193	+0	open	—	06-12 10:09
will perplexitys valuation hit low 15b by december 31	2	$50	40	40	+0	open	—	07-02 12:54
netanyahu out by july 31	1	$49	50	0	+50	open	—	07-02 08:43
will epic games valuation hit low 11pt5b by december 31	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 12:53
will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	2	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	07-02 12:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 13:54:34	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	275	34¢	$93	0x44b570…
07-02 13:25:32	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	223	37¢	$83	0x59b4a7…
07-02 13:11:50	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	220	35¢	$77	0x76a4e7…
07-02 12:54:28	will perplexitys valuation hit low 15b by december 31	Yes	SELL	40	50¢	$20	0x0e7cd2…
07-02 12:53:40	will epic games valuation hit low 11pt5b by december 31	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x1cdc9d…
07-02 12:53:08	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x161e16…
07-02 12:06:14	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	223	36¢	$80	0x7044a7…
07-02 11:30:31	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xa978e2…
07-02 11:19:26	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	211	34¢	$72	0x865b6d…
07-02 11:18:28	will epic games valuation hit low 11pt5b by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x1b3a7d…
07-02 10:00:01	will perplexitys valuation hit low 15b by december 31	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x7c953c…
07-02 09:06:53	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xeccf8f…
07-02 09:02:28	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xc2db0a…
07-02 08:57:11	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0x521e99…
07-02 08:49:47	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x7d9467…
07-02 08:49:29	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	49	37¢	$18	0x56dbae…
07-02 08:48:22	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	400	35¢	$140	0x7b8aef…
07-02 08:48:02	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xe9f793…
07-02 08:43:29	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x98f54d…
06-23 01:00:01	will ink launch a token by september 30 2026	No	BUY	205	82¢	$168	0x160649…
06-12 11:34:34	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,200	9¢	$108	0xc80dc7…
06-12 11:34:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	527	3¢	$16	0xcf111c…
06-12 11:34:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	1,132	3¢	$39	0xe487c8…
06-12 11:32:15	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	400	5¢	$21	0x97dac8…
06-12 10:44:45	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	303	4¢	$12	0xa71724…
06-12 10:29:48	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$4	0x1ed9fd…
06-12 10:21:07	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	600	11¢	$66	0x40fdaf…
06-12 10:11:49	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	370	5¢	$18	0xe3f2ec…
06-12 10:11:12	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	496	4¢	$20	0xd90ceb…
06-12 10:10:12	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	63	4¢	$3	0x863c17…
06-12 10:10:12	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	SELL	343	4¢	$14	0x621c61…
06-12 10:09:12	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x24e9c9…
06-12 10:09:10	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	SELL	588	4¢	$24	0xc3953f…
06-12 10:09:10	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	1,188	2¢	$27	0x749ab2…
06-12 10:07:24	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x4c01ba…
06-12 10:06:01	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	SELL	100	32¢	$32	0x03d8bc…
06-12 10:05:22	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x9bd90f…
06-12 10:04:24	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x741c59…
06-12 10:01:09	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x52f72e…
06-12 10:00:18	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0xb3eed0…
06-12 09:59:58	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	26	23¢	$6	0x216fd9…
06-12 09:59:48	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xa2b852…
06-12 09:59:13	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x574f8b…
06-12 09:57:25	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x41c266…
06-12 09:54:58	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xe024ca…
06-12 09:53:19	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	154	4¢	$6	0xe36370…
06-12 09:53:13	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	144	5¢	$7	0xe958a3…
06-12 09:52:06	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	175	4¢	$7	0x27f934…
06-12 09:51:33	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x4dff39…
06-12 09:51:12	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0x49640c…
06-12 09:50:43	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x5799fa…
06-12 09:50:15	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	580	4¢	$23	0x9e7b83…
06-12 09:47:19	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	SELL	174	7¢	$12	0x43f232…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xbd787e…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	761	6¢	$46	0x8aad11…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	Yes	BUY	100	38¢	$38	0x677484…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x539a4f…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$7	0x31c530…
06-12 09:45:12	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	139	6¢	$8	0x08fde3…
06-12 09:44:57	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xca9aad…
06-12 09:35:37	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x2e3226…
06-12 09:34:46	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x69298c…
06-12 09:33:48	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd503b2…
06-12 09:33:43	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	27	29¢	$8	0xfe47fa…
06-12 09:27:15	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x2766f6…
06-12 09:22:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0x5488c5…
06-12 09:18:18	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x757149…
06-12 09:17:40	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	469	4¢	$19	0xb38093…
06-12 09:17:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$13	0xa6e3ac…
06-12 09:13:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xa7b881…
06-12 09:11:10	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x049d70…
06-12 09:09:31	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xc36395…
06-12 09:08:54	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	137	3¢	$5	0x7b0a58…
06-12 09:08:03	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	99	3¢	$3	0x30c815…
06-12 09:07:55	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	118	3¢	$3	0x7ac1d1…
06-12 09:07:43	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x16248f…
06-12 09:05:57	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	411	9¢	$37	0x7edbbb…
06-12 09:05:09	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	Yes	BUY	473	7¢	$33	0xca19ac…
06-12 09:04:52	will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	Yes	BUY	232	5¢	$12	0x4ebd66…
06-12 09:03:37	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	313	4¢	$12	0xde51f1…
06-12 09:02:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	11	4¢	$0	0x85bccc…
06-12 09:02:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x3d8e71…
06-12 09:02:24	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	64	4¢	$2	0x2ef986…
06-12 09:02:10	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x10f069…
06-12 09:02:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	83	4¢	$3	0x7730a5…
06-12 09:01:55	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	94	4¢	$4	0x8c01ce…
06-12 09:01:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	2,500	4¢	$100	0xa63dca…
06-12 09:00:28	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	300	13¢	$39	0x815650…
05-07 08:13:34	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xef92d6…
05-07 08:13:28	Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb51dda…
05-07 08:10:21	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	SELL	3,000	15¢	$450	0xf0fe6f…
05-07 08:08:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,011	30¢	$303	0xaa5446…
05-07 08:03:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	Up	SELL	116	74¢	$86	0x100b10…
05-07 08:03:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	30¢	$8	0x996847…
05-07 08:01:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	325	30¢	$97	0x49eaba…
05-07 08:00:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	814	30¢	$244	0x54d56f…
05-07 07:56:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x848cdd…
05-07 07:51:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x791e02…
05-07 07:49:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	30¢	$52	0xdff5bf…
05-07 07:48:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x38f101…