Unsteady-Notebook — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$91

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.1%

Resolved

Trades

311

lifetime

Volume

$15.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-25 15:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

54% 100% +$43

Other

46% 50% +$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 144 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$5.0K	5,023	0	+5,023	open	—	04-20 14:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$1.5K	2,437	2,437	+0	open	—	05-07 08:08
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	6	$1.3K	3,860	4,380	-520	No	+$43	05-07 08:10
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	40	$1.2K	2,579	2,579	+0	open	—	07-25 15:27
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	39	$1.2K	5,700	5,700	+0	open	—	07-25 15:27
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	21	$918	1,048	836	+212	Down	$-11	05-07 06:07
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	49	$830	2,271	2,271	+0	open	—	07-25 11:54
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	10	$560	800	800	+0	open	—	07-02 13:54
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	19	$517	421	512	-90	Up	+$59	05-07 08:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	21	$493	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	07-25 07:44
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	4	$249	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	06-12 11:34
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	16	$226	3,007	3,007	+0	open	—	06-12 11:34
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	17	$202	1,873	1,873	+0	open	—	06-12 10:11
will ink launch a token by september 30 2026	1	$168	205	0	+205	open	—	06-23 01:00
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	2	$163	223	223	+0	open	—	07-02 13:25
will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	11	$141	1,211	1,211	+0	open	—	06-12 11:32
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?	2	$107	110	0	+110	open	—	05-07 08:13
will iran close its airspace by june 13 20260609184136051	5	$79	932	932	+0	open	—	06-12 10:10
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	3	$76	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 09:59
will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	2	$70	100	100	+0	open	—	06-12 10:06
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	8	$68	137	137	+0	open	—	06-12 10:07
will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	12	$61	1,193	1,193	+0	open	—	06-12 10:09
will perplexitys valuation hit low 15b by december 31	2	$50	40	40	+0	open	—	07-02 12:54
netanyahu out by july 31	1	$49	50	0	+50	open	—	07-02 08:43
will epic games valuation hit low 11pt5b by december 31	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	07-02 12:53
will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	2	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	07-02 12:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 15:27:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	1,722	7¢	$121	0xf7d13a…
07-25 15:27:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	500	16¢	$80	0x4f7488…
07-25 15:24:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	125	8¢	$10	0xc800dc…
07-25 15:15:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	304	8¢	$24	0xb1ad3c…
07-25 14:56:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x66eab7…
07-25 14:53:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	700	8¢	$56	0x5c9a86…
07-25 14:51:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	800	8¢	$64	0x5cba03…
07-25 14:47:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0xa551dd…
07-25 14:23:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x1efbe6…
07-25 14:17:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0x0d5b64…
07-25 14:15:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x1163d0…
07-25 14:03:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	90	10¢	$9	0xa2cda7…
07-25 13:51:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	220	10¢	$22	0x64bf32…
07-25 13:36:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	39	10¢	$4	0x51854e…
07-25 13:26:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	181	18¢	$33	0xa2e51e…
07-25 13:26:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	78	18¢	$14	0x495fa9…
07-25 13:25:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	67	18¢	$12	0x382ae3…
07-25 13:24:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x0471aa…
07-25 13:13:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	257	8¢	$21	0x96aad6…
07-25 13:05:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x3ecf3c…
07-25 13:01:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	14	18¢	$2	0xa14d7a…
07-25 12:59:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x297bc0…
07-25 12:46:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x2d1e0f…
07-25 12:45:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xf7fed3…
07-25 12:44:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x943336…
07-25 12:44:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0x49c8d2…
07-25 12:43:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	37	18¢	$7	0x7526b1…
07-25 12:41:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	93	17¢	$16	0x3c24b7…
07-25 12:39:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0xb96822…
07-25 12:34:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	23	17¢	$4	0x2e2d39…
07-25 12:23:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0xb6f723…
07-25 12:16:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x302325…
07-25 12:11:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	304	9¢	$27	0xb9a6f2…
07-25 11:54:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	827	14¢	$116	0xe6a7fa…
07-25 11:17:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	114	9¢	$10	0x9414b6…
07-25 11:06:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	230	17¢	$39	0x8e1958…
07-25 11:04:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	129	17¢	$22	0x1da2a8…
07-25 10:54:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x3d02f9…
07-25 10:52:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0xb6d884…
07-25 10:49:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0x50b76b…
07-25 10:26:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	1,018	8¢	$81	0xae9fb9…
07-25 10:26:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	103	13¢	$13	0x6b8af8…
07-25 10:06:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	300	17¢	$51	0xe90d21…
07-25 10:06:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	206	17¢	$35	0x7097e3…
07-25 10:04:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	85	13¢	$11	0x01d1eb…
07-25 10:02:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	152	19¢	$29	0x323dd7…
07-25 10:02:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	217	13¢	$28	0xa74bd9…
07-25 10:01:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	476	13¢	$62	0xd91098…
07-25 10:01:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x5ad27e…
07-25 09:54:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	250	15¢	$38	0x81795b…
07-25 09:51:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x0a813c…
07-25 09:50:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	444	8¢	$36	0xb77af5…
07-25 09:50:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	126	16¢	$20	0xad5593…
07-25 09:50:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	374	16¢	$60	0x13eb98…
07-25 09:45:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	SELL	147	20¢	$29	0x9ecb69…
07-25 09:44:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	650	7¢	$45	0xb73da1…
07-25 09:43:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	SELL	436	17¢	$74	0x44a421…
07-25 09:15:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	589	12¢	$71	0xcb29b3…
07-25 09:14:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x381ad7…
07-25 09:04:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	596	13¢	$77	0xd0dfa7…
07-25 09:01:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x6659e1…
07-25 08:54:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xbd0560…
07-25 08:53:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	42	13¢	$5	0x06dc8f…
07-25 08:50:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	51	13¢	$7	0xe7db3a…
07-25 08:28:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x8f5223…
07-25 08:28:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x6c2299…
07-25 08:28:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xc6a439…
07-25 08:28:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x9e1292…
07-25 08:28:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x145b3f…
07-25 08:28:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0xcff9f6…
07-25 08:28:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	321	22¢	$71	0x1e9e8a…
07-25 08:14:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x3cf666…
07-25 08:05:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0x80e877…
07-25 08:05:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xca1997…
07-25 08:04:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xc57679…
07-25 07:51:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	SELL	300	13¢	$39	0xa84444…
07-25 07:44:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	SELL	86	17¢	$15	0x6059c6…
07-25 07:44:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x360e3f…
07-25 07:43:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	SELL	268	17¢	$46	0x438483…
07-25 07:42:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	297	14¢	$42	0x2547c6…
07-25 07:42:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	3	14¢	$0	0x2e0af7…
07-25 07:38:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	SELL	640	17¢	$109	0x5b421e…
07-25 07:38:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	50	27¢	$13	0x9a2999…
07-25 07:37:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x812739…
07-25 07:36:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x257c54…
07-25 07:36:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	47	17¢	$8	0x6726d1…
07-25 07:35:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	27	23¢	$6	0x462e66…
07-25 07:35:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x610449…
07-25 07:33:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xfadd70…
07-25 07:33:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x71923f…
07-25 07:31:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	No	BUY	20	27¢	$6	0x367771…
07-25 07:31:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0x780147…
07-25 07:31:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x5d5654…
07-25 07:31:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xc18f07…
07-25 07:30:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x790fcc…
07-25 07:30:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0x0c1199…
07-25 07:30:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	BUY	50	17¢	$8	0xb601cb…
07-25 07:29:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	No	SELL	93	18¢	$17	0x5cba5c…
07-25 07:26:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xcee392…
07-25 07:26:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x062044…