Extra-Small-Democrat 0x260b7f…28aa9e
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Realized P&L
—
Unrealized P&L
+$31
Hit rate
—
Resolved
0
Trades
6,954
lifetime
Volume
$33.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$474
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-17
last 06-15 15:30
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Sports
65% — —
Other
18% — —
Politics
16% — —
Tech
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 1669 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +134 $62 74¢ $98 +$37 06-14 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +96 $72 100¢ $96 +$24 06-14 21:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +61 $50 82¢ $50 +$0 06-14 23:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +36 $28 86¢ $31 +$3 06-12 18:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +96 $52 26¢ $25 $-27 06-14 22:14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +46 $20 54¢ $25 +$5 06-14 23:24
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +24 $22 96¢ $23 +$1 06-14 05:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +100 $17 18¢ $18 +$1 06-15 00:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$1 06-11 21:33
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +14 $12 100¢ $14 +$2 06-14 23:37
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +12 $10 84¢ $10 +$0 06-13 06:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +20 $10 30¢ $6 $-4 06-14 23:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +6 $5 100¢ $6 +$1 06-11 17:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +42 $10 14¢ $6 $-4 06-12 15:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +6 $4 92¢ $5 +$1 06-11 17:36
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +6 $4 84¢ $5 +$1 06-12 13:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +6 $4 76¢ $5 +$1 06-12 20:03
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +6 $5 76¢ $5 $-0 06-12 17:12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +6 $3 70¢ $4 +$2 06-14 10:14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +6 $4 68¢ $4 $-0 06-12 00:15
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +6 $3 55¢ $3 +$0 06-11 18:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +18 $7 16¢ $3 $-4 06-12 21:19
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +6 $3 46¢ $3 $-1 06-14 06:09
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +5 $3 46¢ $2 $-0 06-12 18:56
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +32 $2 6¢ $2 $-0 06-14 19:37
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes +6 $2 30¢ $2 +$0 06-11 13:02
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +18 $4 8¢ $2 $-2 06-12 15:25
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +6 $3 25¢ $2 $-2 06-13 05:28
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +12 $5 11¢ $1 $-4 06-12 19:59
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes +6 $1 19¢ $1 $-0 06-12 17:16