Extra-Small-Democrat 0x260b7f…28aa9e
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Realized P&L
—
Unrealized P&L
+$30
Hit rate
—
Resolved
0
Trades
6,954
lifetime
Volume
$33.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$399
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-17
last 06-15 15:30
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Sports
65% — —
Other
18% — —
Politics
16% — —
Tech
2% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 1669 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +134 $62 99¢ $133 +$71 06-14 22:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +100 $17 50¢ $50 +$32 06-15 00:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +61 $50 50¢ $31 $-19 06-14 23:05
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +46 $20 58¢ $27 +$7 06-14 23:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +36 $28 70¢ $25 $-2 06-12 18:56
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +24 $22 96¢ $23 +$1 06-14 05:28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +18 $16 94¢ $17 +$1 06-11 21:33
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +14 $12 100¢ $14 +$2 06-14 23:37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +42 $10 30¢ $12 +$2 06-12 15:21
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +12 $10 88¢ $10 +$1 06-13 06:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +6 $4 86¢ $5 +$1 06-12 13:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +6 $4 78¢ $5 +$1 06-12 20:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +6 $3 78¢ $5 +$2 06-14 10:14
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +18 $4 26¢ $5 +$1 06-12 15:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +6 $4 74¢ $4 +$0 06-11 17:36
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +6 $4 73¢ $4 $-0 06-12 00:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +20 $10 22¢ $4 $-6 06-14 23:42
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +6 $5 66¢ $4 $-1 06-12 17:12
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +6 $3 66¢ $4 +$1 06-11 18:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +18 $7 14¢ $2 $-4 06-12 21:19
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +5 $3 42¢ $2 $-1 06-12 18:56
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +6 $3 34¢ $2 $-1 06-14 06:09
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? No +12 $5 13¢ $2 $-3 06-12 19:59
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes +6 $2 22¢ $1 $-0 06-11 13:02
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +6 $3 20¢ $1 $-2 06-13 05:28
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +30 $2 4¢ $1 $-1 06-14 07:05
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +32 $2 3¢ $1 $-1 06-14 19:37
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes +6 $1 17¢ $1 $-0 06-12 17:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +96 $52 1¢ $1 $-51 06-14 22:14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +6 $1 14¢ $1 +$0 06-12 21:00