Knotty-Airforce — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

52.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$249

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-17

last 06-27 08:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 20% $-5

Other

25% — —

Sports

23% — —

Politics

11% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes		-6	$-1	15¢	$-1	$-0	06-27 07:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	2	$46	25	25	+0	open	—	04-28 05:23
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	4	$33	375	264	+111	open	—	04-29 06:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	04-28 02:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	2	$19	22	22	+0	Down	+$9	05-06 04:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	04-28 02:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	2	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	04-29 05:59
btc updown 5m 1782547500	5	$9	28	20	+8	open	—	06-27 08:09
76ers vs. Celtics	2	$6	6	5	+0	open	—	04-29 01:28
btc updown 5m 1782547200	2	$5	438	0	+438	open	—	06-27 08:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-06 04:15
btc updown 5m 1776387600	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-17 01:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	04-30 12:15
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-28 02:39
btc updown 5m 1782546900	3	$5	9	5	+4	open	—	06-27 07:58
btc updown 5m 1782548100	4	$5	10	2	+8	open	—	06-27 08:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	2	$4	53	0	+53	Up	$-4	05-06 04:44
Magic vs. Pistons	1	$4	17	0	+17	open	—	04-29 01:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$4	7	0	+7	Up	$-4	05-06 04:46
Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	3	$4	5	5	+0	open	—	04-29 11:17
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	2	$3	4	4	+0	No	$-1	04-24 12:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-30 12:48
btc updown 5m 1776389700	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-17 01:41
btc updown 5m 1776389100	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-17 01:30
btc updown 5m 1782548400	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	06-27 08:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-30 13:36
btc updown 5m 1776389400	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-17 01:32
btc updown 5m 1776387300	2	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	04-17 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-28 02:33
btc updown 5m 1782547800	2	$2	8	0	+8	open	—	06-27 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	1	$1	50	0	+50	Up	$-1	05-06 03:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 08:21:16	btc updown 5m 1782548400	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x69c780…
06-27 08:18:07	btc updown 5m 1782548100	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x369148…
06-27 08:17:11	btc updown 5m 1782548100	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4b8700…
06-27 08:16:14	btc updown 5m 1782548100	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0x777408…
06-27 08:15:29	btc updown 5m 1782548100	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xe94ab0…
06-27 08:12:28	btc updown 5m 1782547800	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x561863…
06-27 08:10:34	btc updown 5m 1782547800	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x97346f…
06-27 08:09:10	btc updown 5m 1782547500	Down	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xd7fe38…
06-27 08:08:29	btc updown 5m 1782547500	Down	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xf55df5…
06-27 08:07:52	btc updown 5m 1782547500	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x9044ed…
06-27 08:07:13	btc updown 5m 1782547500	Up	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x6d25f2…
06-27 08:06:28	btc updown 5m 1782547500	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4e042d…
06-27 08:03:37	btc updown 5m 1782547200	Up	BUY	434	1¢	$4	0x616d0b…
06-27 08:00:31	btc updown 5m 1782547200	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x457815…
06-27 07:58:13	btc updown 5m 1782546900	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5d3112…
06-27 07:57:31	btc updown 5m 1782546900	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x115b7c…
06-27 07:56:08	btc updown 5m 1782546900	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdd16a4…
06-27 07:31:14	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x3c547a…
05-06 04:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xc22609…
05-06 04:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x8af583…
05-06 04:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3c47d3…
05-06 04:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9d53cc…
05-06 04:09:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0x082603…
05-06 04:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xdc513c…
05-06 03:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x73d0b8…
04-30 13:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0xc53a3d…
04-30 12:53:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb20852…
04-30 12:48:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x101bbb…
04-30 12:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7e7dc0…
04-30 12:26:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x986dd5…
04-30 12:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x05c3b3…
04-30 11:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0fc9c5…
04-29 11:17:08	Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	0	53¢	$0	0xa7e807…
04-29 11:00:00	Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x45bb66…
04-29 06:08:34	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	107	9¢	$10	0xc55bf8…
04-29 06:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x2f121f…
04-29 05:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x4375cd…
04-29 05:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x439c8d…
04-29 01:50:46	Magic vs. Pistons	Magic	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xe25de6…
04-29 01:32:06	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	SELL	264	6¢	$16	0xa52952…
04-29 01:28:28	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5f3958…
04-28 12:43:44	Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbc3973…
04-28 12:41:40	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Trail Blazers	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x436c49…
04-28 12:35:32	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	185	3¢	$5	0x637e54…
04-28 10:59:18	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0x9487ad…
04-28 05:54:08	Hawks vs. Knicks	Hawks	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x6f5525…
04-28 05:53:50	76ers vs. Celtics	76ers	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb79a86…
04-28 05:23:42	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x12baba…
04-28 02:55:22	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	BUY	25	81¢	$21	0x9e2d8e…
04-28 02:39:22	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xe6d2bb…
04-28 02:37:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x1d3f9a…
04-28 02:37:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xdf83f0…
04-28 02:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb6868a…
04-28 02:32:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xce0063…
04-24 12:56:44	Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xcb8fee…
04-19 02:17:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0x88fb99…
04-17 01:56:00	Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xa4a331…
04-17 01:52:48	will trump post spain this week on truth social	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xdb8e06…
04-17 01:48:16	btc updown 5m 1776390300	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb7fa99…
04-17 01:41:02	btc updown 5m 1776389700	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd7729a…
04-17 01:38:08	btc updown 5m 1776389700	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9caa46…
04-17 01:33:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x899e74…
04-17 01:32:42	btc updown 5m 1776389400	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x14cb8a…
04-17 01:31:46	btc updown 5m 1776389400	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x9ef48d…
04-17 01:30:32	btc updown 5m 1776389100	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xed0bf5…
04-17 01:29:38	btc updown 5m 1776389100	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xf32781…
04-17 01:16:46	btc updown 5m 1776388500	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbc5a7a…
04-17 01:12:30	btc updown 5m 1776388200	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9fe290…
04-17 01:00:52	btc updown 5m 1776387600	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xdbd908…
04-17 00:59:54	btc updown 5m 1776387300	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2e8f3f…
04-17 00:58:44	btc updown 5m 1776387300	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x6e75bb…