Rash-Draw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

Trades

252

lifetime

Volume

$21.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$83

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 05-15 04:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% — —

Crypto

23% 50% $-20

Politics

17% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	5	$1.2K	804	671	+133	open	—	04-22 14:05
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	3	$624	325	324	+1	open	—	04-27 16:16
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	3	$609	311	311	+1	open	—	04-21 10:12
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$607	312	312	+0	open	—	02-20 13:14
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	2	$602	307	307	+0	open	—	02-14 11:32
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	2	$601	306	306	+0	open	—	02-13 05:40
elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 90 114	3	$420	220	220	+0	open	—	02-19 04:07
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 400 419	2	$417	220	220	+0	open	—	02-03 05:29
elon musk of tweets february 9 february 11 215 239	2	$410	212	212	+0	open	—	02-11 14:18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$407	211	211	+1	open	—	04-28 09:35
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$406	213	213	+0	open	—	02-10 19:22
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 190 214	2	$406	208	208	+0	open	—	02-13 04:12
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	2	$405	205	205	+0	open	—	04-21 03:26
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	2	$403	204	204	+0	open	—	02-01 04:38
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 90 114	2	$402	206	206	+0	open	—	02-14 11:32
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	2	$402	203	203	+0	open	—	04-27 08:57
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$401	211	211	+0	open	—	02-01 13:48
elon musk of tweets february 5 february 7 65 89	2	$316	179	179	+0	open	—	02-07 13:50
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	4	$312	176	176	+0	open	—	03-14 11:19
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 440 459	2	$308	160	160	+0	open	—	02-03 05:29
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	1	$300	326	0	+326	open	—	04-16 06:36
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	1	$300	306	0	+306	open	—	04-24 03:26
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 115 139	2	$292	150	150	+0	open	—	04-20 12:48
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	4	$277	150	150	+0	open	—	05-15 04:40
btc updown 5m 1773288300	5	$242	155	154	+1	open	—	03-12 04:10
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$224	129	129	+0	open	—	02-14 11:33
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 165 189	2	$224	130	130	+0	open	—	01-24 16:00
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	2	$218	119	118	+1	open	—	04-24 15:10
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$213	154	151	+3	open	—	04-28 09:35
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 460 479	2	$211	111	111	+0	open	—	01-27 14:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-15 04:40:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	136	98¢	$133	0x1b78c6…
05-15 04:15:18	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x71cbc7…
05-14 01:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x3535b3…
05-14 01:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x334ba2…
05-14 01:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x7fa499…
05-14 01:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	38	99¢	$37	0x5a7bd8…
05-14 01:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x17611a…
05-14 00:56:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x7ecc95…
05-14 00:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x59b582…
05-14 00:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xbf9795…
05-14 00:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	29	85¢	$25	0xca1d6b…
05-13 17:21:13	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	91	88¢	$80	0x8e2ca8…
05-13 17:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xfae6b0…
05-13 17:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x1d2c96…
05-13 17:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	88	66¢	$58	0x696c3f…
05-13 17:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x398001…
05-13 17:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x2bef3b…
05-13 17:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x416ea2…
05-13 17:07:17	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x1a9d22…
04-28 09:35:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	211	98¢	$207	0x35dea0…
04-28 09:35:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	151	75¢	$113	0x997156…
04-28 09:35:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	SELL	132	79¢	$104	0x5fd08a…
04-28 03:12:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0x3faca0…
04-28 03:12:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xd69108…
04-28 03:11:40	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xcb90b7…
04-27 16:16:32	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	324	100¢	$324	0xdb8a1d…
04-27 08:58:20	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xa0e073…
04-27 08:57:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xb6e6fc…
04-27 08:57:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	65¢	$41	0x23dff4…
04-27 08:57:04	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	203	99¢	$202	0x3053fb…
04-27 01:46:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	79¢	$50	0x569091…
04-27 01:46:00	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0x4b46d6…
04-27 01:45:52	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0x665f98…
04-25 14:17:44	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0x22216d…
04-25 14:17:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x1ac833…
04-24 15:18:18	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x6bdde4…
04-24 15:10:36	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	No	SELL	118	100¢	$118	0x22a56f…
04-24 03:26:46	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	No	BUY	306	98¢	$300	0x6ee5eb…
04-24 03:26:34	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 200 219	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xfc6734…
04-24 03:26:32	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x010f0d…
04-22 14:12:34	btc updown 5m 1776867000	Down	SELL	75	13¢	$10	0x8a6595…
04-22 14:11:10	btc updown 5m 1776867000	Down	BUY	80	12¢	$10	0x029092…
04-22 14:09:00	btc updown 5m 1776866700	Up	SELL	58	20¢	$12	0x8a62dd…
04-22 14:06:10	btc updown 5m 1776866700	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x72a443…
04-22 14:05:24	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	No	BUY	129	78¢	$100	0x1455af…
04-22 14:03:14	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	No	SELL	257	76¢	$196	0x795c45…
04-22 14:01:36	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x60f510…
04-22 13:26:14	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x08559a…
04-22 10:50:38	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	No	SELL	414	71¢	$295	0xc103f4…
04-22 03:37:40	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 40 64	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xd1f3b1…
04-22 03:37:26	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 65 89	No	BUY	415	96¢	$400	0x91d8b4…
04-21 13:24:38	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	Yes	SELL	30	62¢	$19	0xa4d05e…
04-21 10:14:14	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	No	SELL	67	95¢	$63	0x857c4a…
04-21 10:12:24	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	No	SELL	311	99¢	$309	0xff28a7…
04-21 03:29:28	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xd75f68…
04-21 03:29:22	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x531a83…
04-21 03:29:10	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x642930…
04-21 03:28:14	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 260 279	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x3899c6…
04-21 03:26:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	28	71¢	$20	0x4de618…
04-21 03:26:44	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	No	SELL	205	100¢	$205	0xd370f1…
04-20 12:50:26	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 65 89	No	BUY	205	97¢	$200	0x856f30…
04-20 12:48:48	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 115 139	No	SELL	150	100¢	$149	0xf4d999…
04-20 12:48:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x8595ee…
04-19 00:44:38	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 115 139	No	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0xac0ac6…
04-16 06:36:06	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 340 359	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0xf28277…
04-16 06:35:58	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 260 279	No	BUY	107	93¢	$100	0x6dff77…
03-20 13:01:57	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	Yes	SELL	65	18¢	$12	0xabfd2e…
03-20 07:20:27	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	Yes	BUY	65	46¢	$30	0x7b9229…
03-20 07:19:37	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 340 359	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xb89dd6…
03-20 07:17:17	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 360 379	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xe5ce34…
03-18 09:03:27	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x2e94c5…
03-16 05:24:47	btc updown 5m 1773638400	Up	SELL	117	30¢	$35	0x7b297c…
03-16 05:24:31	btc updown 5m 1773638400	Down	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0x064789…
03-16 05:24:21	btc updown 5m 1773638400	Up	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xc9f591…
03-14 11:22:15	btc updown 5m 1773487200	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x4c3455…
03-14 11:19:19	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x54cc4e…
03-14 11:19:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	104	99¢	$104	0x403263…
03-12 04:15:09	btc updown 5m 1773288600	Down	SELL	63	99¢	$63	0xf635fc…
03-12 04:13:39	btc updown 5m 1773288600	Down	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x919ee9…
03-12 04:12:23	btc updown 5m 1773288600	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x75bdfc…
03-12 04:12:03	btc updown 5m 1773288600	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x4ff802…
03-12 04:10:21	btc updown 5m 1773288300	Up	SELL	122	99¢	$121	0xa43820…
03-12 04:08:11	btc updown 5m 1773288300	Down	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0xd0f834…
03-12 04:07:53	btc updown 5m 1773288300	Up	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x99dae9…
03-12 04:07:43	btc updown 5m 1773288300	Up	BUY	71	71¢	$50	0x9b6c75…
03-12 04:05:23	btc updown 5m 1773288300	Down	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x205b52…
03-12 04:04:21	btc updown 5m 1773288000	Up	SELL	57	99¢	$57	0xbcc3b7…
03-12 04:02:25	btc updown 5m 1773288000	Up	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x580084…
03-12 04:00:39	btc updown 5m 1773287700	Up	SELL	66	99¢	$66	0xb2a2ef…
03-12 03:57:47	btc updown 5m 1773287700	Up	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x103ddf…
03-11 09:38:31	bitcoin above 72k on march 11	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x0ebc01…
03-11 09:38:23	bitcoin above 68k on march 11	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x82f46b…
03-11 09:36:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x553426…
03-11 09:36:09	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0x99411c…
03-11 09:28:53	elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 140 164	No	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0x48e976…
03-11 09:28:09	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	121	90¢	$109	0xcdda65…
03-09 02:56:25	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0xcf48fc…
03-09 02:54:51	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 140 164	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x73907b…
02-20 13:14:34	us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	No	SELL	312	98¢	$307	0x1e6221…
02-19 04:07:16	elon musk of tweets february 14 february 16 90 114	No	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0x587747…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	80	$22.1K	5,843	05-14 09:49
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	77	$364.0K	11,739	04-28 10:17
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	76	$16.7K	6,420	04-18 22:01
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	75	$304.4K	7,438	05-14 03:37
Rundown-Regard 0x39aa…583c	74	$35.4K	1,690	04-27 15:05
Vacant-Challenge 0x3078…0389	73	$105.2K	17,547	04-08 17:04
Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a	70	$158.7K	4,039	04-28 10:42
Pessimistic-Bakeware 0x65ab…273d	64	$44.6K	1,299	04-28 05:15