Favorable-Running — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

23.5%

Resolved (90d)

269

Trades (90d)

3,455

4,114 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$15.5K

$18.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-26 18:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 73% -$956

Other

5% 42% -$215

Politics

1% 100% +$5

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 799 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	143	$2.2K	2,485	2,485	+0	Down	-$126	09-04 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	161	$1.0K	1,304	1,304	+0	Down	-$108	09-09 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	89	$683	2,128	0	+2,128	Up	-$33	09-04 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	94	$607	1,862	0	+1,862	Up	-$141	09-04 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	186	$543	785	785	+0	Up	-$18	09-04 21:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 22:45 UTC	67	$394	840	240	+600	Down	-$89	08-30 22:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 03:30 UTC	45	$369	420	420	+0	Down	-$4	08-31 03:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 22:25 UTC	65	$360	870	0	+870	Down	-$30	08-30 22:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 04:00 UTC	30	$345	341	341	+0	Down	-$22	08-31 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	108	$315	628	476	+152	Down	-$6	09-04 20:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-30 23:00 UTC	52	$303	630	0	+630	Down	+$27	08-30 23:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	17	$298	300	300	+0	Down	+$4	09-04 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	78	$285	299	299	+0	Up	+$6	09-04 20:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 17:35 UTC	36	$265	264	220	+44	Up	+$11	09-21 17:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	93	$246	872	0	+872	Up	-$44	09-09 16:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 03:20 UTC	91	$227	411	411	+0	Up	-$18	08-31 03:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 17:25 UTC	55	$226	418	0	+418	Up	-$17	09-21 17:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 04:10 UTC	19	$225	215	215	+0	Down	-$7	08-31 04:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	76	$225	230	230	+0	Down	$0	09-04 20:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 17:30 UTC	48	$218	418	0	+418	Down	-$9	09-21 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 18:45 UTC	38	$214	425	0	+425	Up	-$104	08-27 18:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 16:50 UTC	46	$213	381	0	+381	Down	-$37	09-21 16:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 03:55 UTC	40	$212	367	179	+189	Down	+$18	08-31 03:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 03:45 UTC	23	$210	217	217	+0	Up	-$4	08-31 03:47
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 7?	2	$199	115	115	+0	No	$0	08-06 22:20
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 7?	2	$198	131	131	+0	No	-$2	08-06 22:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 16:25 UTC	49	$185	386	0	+386	Up	-$20	09-21 16:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 04:20 UTC	27	$170	175	175	+0	Down	-$4	08-31 04:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 17:00 UTC	48	$170	352	0	+352	Down	-$27	09-21 17:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	55	$165	180	180	+0	Down	-$5	09-26 21:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 18:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x78d2ac…
10-26 18:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xa98f16…
10-26 18:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2df8e8…
10-26 18:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x85d4d7…
10-26 18:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xa343f7…
10-26 18:25:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb141df…
10-26 18:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x79f344…
10-26 18:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x61c9f2…
10-26 18:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x3f9e5e…
10-26 18:18:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xdf4ee3…
10-26 18:15:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x3f9b7b…
10-26 18:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x39a983…
10-26 18:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x89ea50…
10-26 18:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x1c38fc…
10-26 18:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7ba925…
10-26 18:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe159dc…
10-26 18:03:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x0b850d…
10-26 18:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xe935f1…
10-26 17:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xcc07f3…
10-26 17:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xac17e7…
10-26 17:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x305cc3…
10-26 17:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4ba85f…
10-26 17:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x154a0e…
10-26 17:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x8e91f4…
10-26 17:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xbd1690…
10-26 17:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x85e097…
10-26 17:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x78dbd4…
10-26 17:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x6a9456…
10-26 17:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x62df3e…
10-26 17:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x4d676b…
10-26 17:20:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x70a5bd…
10-26 17:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x75c3e0…
10-26 17:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x509920…
10-26 17:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xaae59e…
10-26 17:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x492384…
10-26 17:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xef5849…
10-26 17:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x9be160…
10-26 17:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x9485e9…
10-26 16:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x2cd639…
10-26 16:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x473e99…
10-26 16:43:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xda3f6a…
10-26 16:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x9c553b…
10-26 16:34:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x377ed8…
10-26 16:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xbd0f78…
10-26 16:33:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x9c6eeb…
10-26 16:33:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x4ea827…
10-26 16:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x91c2b2…
10-26 16:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xedf644…
10-26 16:31:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0x853665…
10-26 16:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x960de7…
10-26 16:31:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x66f864…
10-26 16:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xb69b8f…
10-26 16:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x70befd…
10-26 16:30:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x321c3b…
10-26 16:29:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x40f123…
10-26 16:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xcb62d3…
10-26 16:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x10cf9e…
10-26 16:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	0	72¢	$0	0xe5c930…
10-26 16:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe87ee8…
10-26 16:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x44b67d…
10-22 21:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0xb65731…
10-22 21:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xa8c343…
10-22 19:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xd9d781…
10-22 19:44:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xd93162…
10-22 18:53:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 22?	Yes	BUY	12	13¢	$2	0xf08a3d…
10-22 13:57:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x18e648…
10-22 13:01:59	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x04e6dd…
10-22 08:03:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	0	77¢	$0	0x64d512…
10-22 06:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0xb92004…
10-22 06:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	39	6¢	$2	0x607fcd…
10-22 06:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x54e660…
10-21 08:01:05	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xc1c335…
10-21 05:55:32	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xdc7bbf…
10-21 05:47:03	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0xfdf797…
10-20 17:50:48	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 20?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xbec6c8…
10-20 17:50:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 20?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xbda825…
10-20 17:50:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 20?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xb40298…
10-20 16:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xecd30a…
10-20 16:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x9ae26a…
10-20 16:01:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 21?	Yes	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0xb472a4…
10-20 02:08:29	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0xb0a31d…
10-19 22:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 20?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$1	0x6857dc…
10-19 22:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x767c50…
10-19 22:31:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xa67fbb…
10-19 20:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xee4e3e…
09-30 00:25:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x87fda6…
09-30 00:24:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xe524b8…
09-30 00:23:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x80a6b0…
09-30 00:22:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6bdf99…
09-30 00:22:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xdbee19…
09-30 00:16:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xffb0b7…
09-30 00:13:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xdf6e94…
09-30 00:13:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xbc6ae9…
09-30 00:13:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x80d476…
09-30 00:08:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x1ee6a2…
09-30 00:07:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x42ad4b…
09-30 00:06:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-30 00:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x570594…
09-29 23:56:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 23:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x4bea1e…
09-29 23:51:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3baad3…
09-29 23:51:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 23:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x2994a7…