Crowded-Distance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.20K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.89K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,095

lifetime

Volume

$3.74M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.79K

Open exposure

$52.9K

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 07-01 18:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

62% — —

Other

36% 100% +$496

Sports

1% 100% +$1,707

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-36,951	$-30,777	86¢	$-31963	$-1,185	06-14 20:19
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+10,799	$8,171	92¢	$9.9K	+$1,711	06-07 00:28
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	+4,611	$3,826	96¢	$4.4K	+$614	06-07 00:28
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+4,051	$3,237	88¢	$3.5K	+$308	06-16 13:47
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	+2,615	$2,154	96¢	$2.5K	+$347	06-06 20:45
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	+563	$461	100¢	$561	+$100	06-06 13:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	208	$477.0K	489,191	489,191	+0	open	—	03-12 02:05
netanyahu out by march 31 854	105	$418.7K	216,624	216,624	+0	open	—	04-01 18:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	32	$204.3K	129,194	129,194	+0	open	—	04-05 04:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	100	$173.8K	112,545	112,545	+0	open	—	04-22 20:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	34	$148.6K	82,511	77,707	+4,804	open	—	05-22 04:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	30	$146.3K	76,905	76,905	+0	open	—	04-08 22:27
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	74	$144.8K	77,973	77,973	+0	open	—	04-01 03:03
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	61	$143.5K	243,614	0	+243,614	open	—	02-26 13:00
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	62	$121.4K	77,643	77,643	+0	open	—	04-21 20:42
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	28	$96.4K	59,685	59,685	+0	open	—	04-21 19:58
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	19	$86.4K	47,909	45,420	+2,489	open	—	05-25 08:20
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	54	$85.2K	46,926	46,926	+0	open	—	03-31 01:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	27	$83.9K	103,885	47,500	+56,385	open	—	03-03 00:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$79.1K	112,433	20,000	+92,433	open	—	03-03 00:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	42	$58.7K	34,097	33,823	+275	open	—	04-20 19:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	6	$56.8K	29,194	29,194	+0	open	—	05-23 04:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	17	$56.8K	30,990	30,872	+118	open	—	04-25 16:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	25	$50.7K	26,267	26,267	+0	open	—	03-15 21:31
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	96	$49.6K	33,433	33,433	+0	open	—	03-30 20:58
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	42	$44.8K	35,525	24,356	+11,169	open	—	04-01 03:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	19	$43.4K	23,166	23,166	+0	open	—	05-24 01:43
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	27	$41.2K	22,448	22,448	+0	open	—	03-31 13:58
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	29	$38.3K	20,629	20,629	+0	open	—	03-29 19:46
Netanyahu out by April 30?	17	$36.6K	18,891	18,891	+0	open	—	04-02 03:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	16	$36.6K	25,064	15,000	+10,064	open	—	05-16 02:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	12	$36.6K	21,172	21,172	+0	open	—	05-06 20:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	62	$34.3K	33,049	19,719	+13,331	open	—	03-04 12:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	38	$31.1K	51,164	51,164	+0	open	—	03-11 22:07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	26	$30.8K	0	36,951	-36,951	open	—	06-14 20:19
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	14	$30.2K	35,751	0	+35,751	open	—	05-25 21:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 18:12:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	3,261	92¢	$3,000	0x5ae10c…
07-01 18:11:38	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	470	92¢	$432	0x8454b8…
06-25 07:54:46	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	1,317	87¢	$1,146	0x480042…
06-24 22:52:01	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	No	SELL	874	99¢	$865	0x6fdcdf…
06-24 22:51:37	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	No	SELL	157	99¢	$156	0x4818e0…
06-16 13:47:50	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1,003	80¢	$800	0x292477…
06-16 13:47:02	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	SELL	211	0¢	$0	0x150d4f…
06-16 13:46:17	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	4,167	96¢	$4,000	0x44c181…
06-15 13:23:36	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	211	96¢	$203	0x5244b0…
06-15 13:21:46	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of june	No	BUY	874	90¢	$787	0x99c4da…
06-15 12:06:19	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	318	91¢	$289	0xdbab51…
06-14 20:20:30	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0xb4cf39…
06-14 20:19:22	will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	No	BUY	163	80¢	$130	0x3c5ab6…
06-14 20:19:12	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	69	65¢	$45	0xf63542…
06-14 20:19:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x185217…
06-14 20:18:28	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x091312…
06-14 20:18:21	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	296	68¢	$200	0xea442e…
06-14 20:18:10	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x7b3301…
06-14 20:18:00	will iran close its airspace by august 31 20260609184136057	No	BUY	369	65¢	$240	0x6b54a8…
06-14 20:17:52	will iran close its airspace by august 31 20260609184136057	No	BUY	155	64¢	$100	0x769923…
06-14 20:17:42	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x2d3d56…
06-14 20:17:36	will iran close its airspace by august 31 20260609184136057	No	BUY	63	63¢	$40	0x6b7709…
06-14 20:17:27	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xaca7c2…
06-14 20:17:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0xad0dca…
06-12 10:47:40	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	44	86¢	$38	0xc20567…
06-12 10:47:24	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x286ac3…
06-12 10:47:15	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	No	BUY	39	79¢	$31	0x12c9e6…
06-12 10:47:01	will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	No	BUY	31	72¢	$22	0xc1f9c5…
06-12 10:46:55	will iran close its airspace by august 31 20260609184136057	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x77856a…
06-12 10:46:15	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of june	No	BUY	157	89¢	$140	0xd1aca1…
06-12 10:45:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x8d830a…
06-12 10:45:07	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,343	90¢	$1,209	0xae7468…
06-12 10:44:45	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	No	BUY	1,023	96¢	$982	0xa71724…
06-12 10:44:37	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0x711c20…
06-12 10:44:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	3,761	95¢	$3,573	0xccd139…
06-08 15:04:51	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	2,238	86¢	$1,925	0x9d4e64…
06-08 15:04:24	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	3,005	72¢	$2,175	0x8a995c…
06-08 15:04:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	82¢	$4,100	0x49dc8c…
06-07 15:14:07	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,107	82¢	$908	0xd1c2fc…
06-07 15:13:58	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	690	87¢	$600	0x1379da…
06-07 15:13:48	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	212	81¢	$172	0xa0be75…
06-07 15:13:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	84¢	$1,680	0x3f10fd…
06-07 00:28:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x75db72…
06-07 00:28:28	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	1,039	77¢	$800	0x494860…
06-07 00:28:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0xe84ac1…
06-07 00:27:57	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xd251aa…
06-07 00:27:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	151	77¢	$116	0x37f68e…
06-07 00:27:33	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	794	88¢	$699	0x6669c1…
06-07 00:27:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0xf12148…
06-07 00:26:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	2,160	77¢	$1,663	0x6053db…
06-07 00:26:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	84¢	$1,680	0x1a1208…
06-06 20:50:15	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1,890	80¢	$1,512	0xf401dd…
06-06 20:49:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,800	84¢	$1,512	0xa1f65c…
06-06 20:47:12	iran closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	157	74¢	$116	0xbe2045…
06-06 20:46:45	iran closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	992	73¢	$724	0x5cfbf5…
06-06 20:46:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x7a4699…
06-06 20:46:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,378	81¢	$1,123	0xc78701…
06-06 20:45:48	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	666	83¢	$553	0x96adae…
06-06 20:45:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	84¢	$1,680	0xe92e64…
06-06 20:44:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,130	85¢	$960	0xe27a8d…
06-06 20:44:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	898	79¢	$709	0x88390c…
06-06 20:43:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	84¢	$1,680	0xb74006…
06-06 16:05:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	403	81¢	$327	0x848b9b…
06-06 16:04:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	303	78¢	$236	0x05b7e8…
06-06 16:04:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	325	84¢	$272	0x844e5c…
06-06 16:04:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x4cb2a2…
06-06 16:01:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	72	81¢	$58	0x69ab7f…
06-06 16:01:12	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	578	82¢	$474	0x5763d4…
06-06 16:01:03	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	373	81¢	$302	0x6ef26b…
06-06 16:00:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x71b566…
06-06 13:43:31	iran closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0x5b63eb…
06-06 13:43:13	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	94¢	$18	0x24e05f…
06-06 13:42:42	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	454	89¢	$404	0xde2ffd…
06-06 13:42:25	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	430	94¢	$404	0x5aeb04…
06-05 23:33:21	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	241	87¢	$210	0x7d373d…
06-05 23:33:04	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	231	91¢	$210	0x6fe900…
06-05 23:32:34	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	72	84¢	$61	0xfb1fec…
06-05 23:31:54	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	925	83¢	$764	0x1e2e46…
06-05 23:31:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	83¢	$830	0x7359ff…
06-05 23:23:45	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	643	91¢	$585	0xedda73…
06-05 23:23:06	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	87	83¢	$72	0xa9e25d…
06-05 23:22:57	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	162	82¢	$133	0xbe7044…
06-05 23:22:49	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	63	76¢	$48	0x4eba09…
06-05 23:22:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0xe42f79…
06-05 22:22:28	iran closes its airspace by july 15	No	BUY	554	75¢	$415	0x4aa904…
06-05 22:22:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	83¢	$415	0x71c070…
06-05 22:18:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	998	90¢	$898	0x64d4c0…
06-05 22:17:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$902	0x57d1aa…
06-05 21:41:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	109	82¢	$89	0x4fc799…
06-05 21:41:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	977	75¢	$733	0x26f005…
06-05 21:41:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	83¢	$830	0x70790e…
06-04 11:12:00	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	175	89¢	$155	0x58035e…
06-04 11:11:43	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	163	95¢	$155	0x5bdc93…
06-04 11:11:10	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	286	75¢	$214	0x988b2f…
06-04 11:10:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	829	73¢	$607	0x138841…
06-04 11:10:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	83¢	$830	0xeb0388…
06-04 03:49:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	3,249	87¢	$2,837	0xab50c6…
06-04 03:48:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	3,044	93¢	$2,837	0x946bbe…
06-04 03:48:19	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	160	76¢	$121	0x28d6ff…
06-04 03:48:01	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	852	82¢	$703	0x3c9e54…