Crowded-Distance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.20K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,610

lifetime

Volume

$4.71M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.80K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 08-09 23:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

63% — —

Other

36% 100% +$496

Sports

1% 100% +$1,707

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	208	$477.0K	489,191	489,191	+0	open	—	03-12 02:05
netanyahu out by march 31 854	105	$418.7K	216,624	216,624	+0	open	—	04-01 18:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	32	$204.3K	129,194	129,194	+0	open	—	04-05 04:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	100	$173.8K	112,545	112,545	+0	open	—	04-22 20:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	34	$148.6K	82,511	77,707	+4,804	open	—	05-22 04:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	30	$146.3K	76,905	76,905	+0	open	—	04-08 22:27
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	74	$144.8K	77,973	77,973	+0	open	—	04-01 03:03
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	61	$143.5K	243,614	0	+243,614	open	—	02-26 13:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	42	$122.4K	42,920	118,951	-76,031	open	—	08-05 18:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	62	$121.4K	77,643	77,643	+0	open	—	04-21 20:42
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	28	$96.4K	59,685	59,685	+0	open	—	04-21 19:58
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	19	$86.4K	47,909	45,420	+2,489	open	—	05-25 08:20
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	54	$85.2K	46,926	46,926	+0	open	—	03-31 01:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	27	$83.9K	103,885	47,500	+56,385	open	—	03-03 00:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$79.1K	112,433	20,000	+92,433	open	—	03-03 00:35
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	17	$65.6K	45,702	27,713	+17,989	open	—	07-28 22:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	42	$58.7K	34,097	33,823	+275	open	—	04-20 19:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	6	$56.8K	29,194	29,194	+0	open	—	05-23 04:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	17	$56.8K	30,990	30,872	+118	open	—	04-25 16:29
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	28	$56.4K	28,537	28,537	+0	open	—	08-05 18:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	18	$55.4K	28,495	28,495	+0	open	—	07-26 23:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	14	$50.8K	25,410	26,555	-1,145	open	—	08-02 20:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	25	$50.7K	26,267	26,267	+0	open	—	03-15 21:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	18	$49.7K	26,136	26,180	-44	open	—	08-09 20:38
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	96	$49.6K	33,433	33,433	+0	open	—	03-30 20:58
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	3	$48.0K	24,078	24,078	+0	open	—	08-02 12:49
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	42	$44.8K	35,525	24,356	+11,169	open	—	04-01 03:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	19	$43.4K	23,166	23,166	+0	open	—	05-24 01:43
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	27	$41.2K	22,448	22,448	+0	open	—	03-31 13:58
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	29	$38.3K	20,629	20,629	+0	open	—	03-29 19:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 19:35:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,238	91¢	$1,127	0x0e180d…
08-12 19:33:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	3,499	98¢	$3,433	0xd34b00…
08-12 19:19:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	13,779	98¢	$13,500	0x2135d9…
08-12 19:18:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	5,523	98¢	$5,400	0xd446ed…
08-12 19:17:30	will wti reach 105 in august 2026	No	BUY	9,130	95¢	$8,700	0xfc1aca…
08-12 19:14:30	will wti reach 105 in august 2026	No	BUY	10,240	95¢	$9,738	0x94f55c…
08-09 23:43:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	129	94¢	$121	0x7883fa…
08-09 22:52:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0x8d7a1f…
08-09 22:23:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,028	94¢	$1,906	0xe42376…
08-09 22:16:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	3,607	95¢	$3,426	0x48d0de…
08-09 22:12:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	393	95¢	$374	0x9b685f…
08-09 22:12:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,083	96¢	$2,000	0x751a30…
08-09 21:54:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	590	95¢	$560	0x975d2b…
08-09 21:46:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x779ef8…
08-09 21:46:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x4584b1…
08-09 21:42:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	330	95¢	$314	0x4de52e…
08-09 21:35:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,920	0x7c370e…
08-09 21:31:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x06c48b…
08-09 21:29:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	638	91¢	$581	0x0463ab…
08-09 21:27:34	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	3,730	84¢	$3,133	0x129de5…
08-09 21:26:52	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	4,138	97¢	$4,026	0x55ff81…
08-09 21:26:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	151	95¢	$143	0x0cf819…
08-09 21:26:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	209	95¢	$199	0xdbdc67…
08-09 21:26:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	209	95¢	$199	0x8cb009…
08-09 21:26:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	209	95¢	$199	0x2a083a…
08-09 21:25:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	209	95¢	$199	0x6adf89…
08-09 21:25:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	525	95¢	$499	0x0ae351…
08-09 21:24:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,606	95¢	$2,475	0x7f0541…
08-09 20:38:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	6,180	100¢	$6,168	0x2283e0…
08-09 20:37:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	20,000	100¢	$19,960	0x1d18c4…
08-08 13:17:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	1,031	93¢	$959	0x9923a3…
08-08 13:16:45	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$959	0x72bf91…
08-07 23:11:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	1,224	92¢	$1,126	0x0cf3c9…
08-07 23:10:46	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	1,149	98¢	$1,126	0x4a2617…
08-07 23:10:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	3,970	91¢	$3,613	0x31e9fe…
08-07 23:09:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	3,799	95¢	$3,613	0xaa44af…
08-07 11:46:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	1,409	90¢	$1,268	0xca9f88…
08-07 11:46:16	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	SELL	1,337	95¢	$1,270	0x86ebec…
08-07 11:44:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,242	90¢	$2,018	0x177c7c…
08-07 11:44:06	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2,265	89¢	$2,019	0x53ef1d…
08-05 18:49:26	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	1,279	93¢	$1,189	0x0ef8eb…
08-05 18:49:03	will wti reach 115 in august 2026	No	SELL	1,215	98¢	$1,193	0x11bc93…
08-05 18:48:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x8a217a…
08-05 18:39:51	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xaf0ed1…
08-05 18:32:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,802	86¢	$2,410	0x86b1a9…
08-05 18:31:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	1,015	89¢	$903	0x637780…
08-05 18:31:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	5,948	92¢	$5,472	0x46a0db…
08-05 18:31:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	8,803	100¢	$8,785	0xf35136…
08-05 18:29:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,876	86¢	$2,473	0xb62f0f…
08-05 18:28:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	4,850	96¢	$4,656	0xa4ab3b…
08-05 18:28:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	524	91¢	$477	0x3c976d…
08-05 18:28:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	230	91¢	$209	0x13d148…
08-05 18:27:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	65	85¢	$55	0x55b281…
08-05 18:22:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	79	100¢	$79	0xf74c04…
08-05 18:01:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	3,369	100¢	$3,366	0x9bc99f…
08-05 17:45:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	4,430	100¢	$4,426	0xd82451…
08-05 14:57:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,944	85¢	$5,052	0x593a4a…
08-05 14:35:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,988	0x92236d…
08-05 14:06:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$997	0x3d6b43…
08-05 14:04:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xf29eef…
08-05 13:58:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	286	95¢	$272	0x281d40…
08-05 13:57:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	283	100¢	$282	0x6250ce…
08-05 13:35:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x9d4f95…
08-05 13:33:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xbf8880…
08-05 13:29:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7,178	85¢	$6,101	0x28bee4…
08-05 13:28:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	6,113	100¢	$6,101	0x5aaa32…
08-05 11:21:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,476	88¢	$2,179	0x09ee4e…
08-05 11:18:23	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xc96503…
08-05 11:17:26	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	4,469	87¢	$3,888	0x7e33ce…
08-05 11:16:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	SELL	6,113	100¢	$6,101	0x2115e7…
08-04 15:58:12	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	BUY	5,348	83¢	$4,446	0x1d7229…
08-04 02:51:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,990	0xe4133a…
08-03 20:07:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	4,634	99¢	$4,569	0xf1230c…
08-03 19:26:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x85b595…
08-03 19:24:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	812	88¢	$715	0xe86c83…
08-03 18:33:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,935	0xe9dff4…
08-03 18:26:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	3,896	77¢	$3,000	0xa561dc…
08-03 18:22:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	1,028	76¢	$781	0x972a25…
08-03 18:21:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	14,080	100¢	$14,052	0x459938…
08-03 18:19:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xa911c0…
08-03 18:05:27	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	1,086	92¢	$999	0xf9da9e…
08-03 18:05:08	will wti reach 105 in august 2026	No	BUY	77	93¢	$72	0x3454ed…
08-03 18:04:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0xa9c6b1…
08-03 18:04:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	1,673	92¢	$1,539	0xbb64ee…
08-03 18:03:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	2,746	100¢	$2,741	0x017c2a…
08-02 23:41:14	will wti reach 105 in august 2026	No	BUY	518	89¢	$461	0x8f45b5…
08-02 23:40:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	464	100¢	$463	0x37a4ab…
08-02 23:39:12	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	320	80¢	$257	0xcf3baa…
08-02 23:38:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x978945…
08-02 23:37:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	1,501	89¢	$1,336	0xc2da4d…
08-02 23:35:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	3,103	88¢	$2,731	0x3703a6…
08-02 23:33:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xe8d353…
08-02 23:32:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	5,087	98¢	$5,000	0x7774d6…
08-02 23:32:14	will wti dip to 85 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	10,402	100¢	$10,392	0xc9e1cf…
08-02 22:04:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	1,936	92¢	$1,781	0x8f7c8c…
08-02 20:19:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	4,017	98¢	$3,929	0xd6f44b…
08-02 20:18:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	BUY	282	83¢	$234	0x288d50…
08-02 20:18:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1,511	90¢	$1,360	0x7a86fb…
08-02 20:17:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	2,227	98¢	$2,174	0xf14340…
08-02 20:17:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	3,841	99¢	$3,795	0x8275b3…