Crowded-Distance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.20K

Unrealized P&L

+$5.04K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,309

lifetime

Volume

$4.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.75K

Open exposure

$53.9K

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 07-22 16:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

61% — —

Other

38% 100% +$496

Sports

1% 100% +$1,707

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-59,895	$-45,876	70¢	$-42226	+$3,650	07-20 17:20
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+6,738	$4,986	84¢	$5.6K	+$641	07-22 16:03
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	-5,191	$-4,787	85¢	$-4412	+$375	07-21 16:32
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	+1,669	$1,248	97¢	$1.6K	+$378	07-22 16:02
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	No	+20	$15	82¢	$16	+$1	07-08 18:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	208	$477.0K	489,191	489,191	+0	open	—	03-12 02:05
netanyahu out by march 31 854	105	$418.7K	216,624	216,624	+0	open	—	04-01 18:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	32	$204.3K	129,194	129,194	+0	open	—	04-05 04:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	100	$173.8K	112,545	112,545	+0	open	—	04-22 20:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	34	$148.6K	82,511	77,707	+4,804	open	—	05-22 04:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	30	$146.3K	76,905	76,905	+0	open	—	04-08 22:27
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	74	$144.8K	77,973	77,973	+0	open	—	04-01 03:03
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	61	$143.5K	243,614	0	+243,614	open	—	02-26 13:00
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	62	$121.4K	77,643	77,643	+0	open	—	04-21 20:42
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	28	$96.4K	59,685	59,685	+0	open	—	04-21 19:58
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	19	$86.4K	47,909	45,420	+2,489	open	—	05-25 08:20
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 893 949 456 773	54	$85.2K	46,926	46,926	+0	open	—	03-31 01:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	27	$83.9K	103,885	47,500	+56,385	open	—	03-03 00:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	34	$81.0K	24,056	83,951	-59,895	open	—	07-20 17:20
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$79.1K	112,433	20,000	+92,433	open	—	03-03 00:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	42	$58.7K	34,097	33,823	+275	open	—	04-20 19:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	6	$56.8K	29,194	29,194	+0	open	—	05-23 04:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	17	$56.8K	30,990	30,872	+118	open	—	04-25 16:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 15th	25	$50.7K	26,267	26,267	+0	open	—	03-15 21:31
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	96	$49.6K	33,433	33,433	+0	open	—	03-30 20:58
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	42	$44.8K	35,525	24,356	+11,169	open	—	04-01 03:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	19	$43.4K	23,166	23,166	+0	open	—	05-24 01:43
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	27	$41.2K	22,448	22,448	+0	open	—	03-31 13:58
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	29	$38.3K	20,629	20,629	+0	open	—	03-29 19:46
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	51	$36.7K	52,089	0	+52,089	open	—	07-21 17:15
Netanyahu out by April 30?	17	$36.6K	18,891	18,891	+0	open	—	04-02 03:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	16	$36.6K	25,064	15,000	+10,064	open	—	05-16 02:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	12	$36.6K	21,172	21,172	+0	open	—	05-06 20:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	62	$34.3K	33,049	19,719	+13,331	open	—	03-04 12:44
fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	7	$33.5K	36,469	0	+36,469	open	—	07-18 22:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 16:04:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	1,229	73¢	$897	0xfec3f6…
07-22 16:03:52	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,075	84¢	$903	0xf51ecb…
07-22 16:03:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	1,948	73¢	$1,422	0x149663…
07-22 16:02:12	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	1,482	96¢	$1,424	0x5cfc55…
07-22 16:01:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	62	73¢	$45	0x2c7881…
07-21 17:15:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	554	62¢	$342	0x5667bc…
07-21 17:15:15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	411	85¢	$349	0x61516b…
07-21 17:13:52	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	267	61¢	$163	0xbd48e3…
07-21 16:58:16	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	700	62¢	$434	0xc5183d…
07-21 16:56:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	17	62¢	$11	0x76acd2…
07-21 16:55:42	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	92	62¢	$57	0xa21c2c…
07-21 16:54:52	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	51	62¢	$32	0x961ecb…
07-21 16:33:16	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	3,090	64¢	$1,974	0x0bdcbb…
07-21 16:32:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	4,162	86¢	$3,579	0x605e37…
07-21 16:27:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	1,637	64¢	$1,046	0x08bed0…
07-21 16:26:30	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	SELL	1,102	96¢	$1,057	0xe3d2ae…
07-21 16:24:43	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	5,047	64¢	$3,225	0x128509…
07-21 16:24:21	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	578	61¢	$351	0x26243c…
07-21 16:24:04	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	4,303	85¢	$3,658	0xb7cdd2…
07-21 16:23:09	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	364	61¢	$222	0xa7438c…
07-21 16:21:19	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	2,000	62¢	$1,240	0x075e5c…
07-21 16:21:16	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	2,949	64¢	$1,884	0xd27eca…
07-21 16:20:12	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0xc10e42…
07-21 16:15:13	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	24	64¢	$15	0xf4f4db…
07-21 16:14:36	will wti reach 90 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	156	85¢	$133	0x21d053…
07-21 16:12:31	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	385	62¢	$239	0xe7e878…
07-21 16:11:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	3,602	64¢	$2,300	0x972d96…
07-21 15:51:18	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	405	62¢	$251	0xb05272…
07-21 15:50:40	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	521	61¢	$320	0x772c95…
07-21 15:44:34	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	1,670	62¢	$1,030	0xaa81b0…
07-21 15:44:03	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1,869	87¢	$1,626	0xb28deb…
07-21 15:37:31	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	717	80¢	$573	0x1b3742…
07-21 15:35:40	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0xe59b33…
07-21 15:34:49	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	1,439	61¢	$877	0x13cec0…
07-21 15:31:39	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	271	61¢	$165	0xf54990…
07-21 15:30:31	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	635	80¢	$507	0x5727cf…
07-21 15:28:07	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	98	59¢	$58	0x29eebe…
07-21 15:26:10	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	300	58¢	$174	0xdd3bef…
07-21 15:25:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	814	99¢	$808	0x2dfc37…
07-21 15:25:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,490	0x9faeb5…
07-21 15:25:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	SELL	147	100¢	$147	0xe143e4…
07-21 15:24:18	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	998	59¢	$591	0x122415…
07-21 15:23:49	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	SELL	608	99¢	$602	0x6e6401…
07-21 06:07:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	62	87¢	$54	0x680759…
07-20 19:47:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	1,785	90¢	$1,605	0x8c5495…
07-20 19:46:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,468	86¢	$1,262	0x810fdd…
07-20 19:46:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	404	87¢	$351	0xf165ce…
07-20 17:20:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	747	74¢	$553	0x1dcb6b…
07-20 17:17:18	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	355	95¢	$338	0xffbb45…
07-20 17:16:45	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	No	BUY	472	94¢	$444	0x0948cf…
07-20 17:15:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	701	92¢	$645	0x50b3c5…
07-20 17:09:52	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	1,168	93¢	$1,086	0xebdd43…
07-20 16:43:58	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,595	84¢	$1,340	0x7b447d…
07-20 16:42:55	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	311	94¢	$292	0x464293…
07-20 16:25:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0x9f90c7…
07-20 16:25:01	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	735	89¢	$654	0xdd61e1…
07-20 16:14:10	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	10,739	93¢	$9,996	0x375856…
07-20 16:11:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	698	84¢	$586	0xc4daaf…
07-20 16:11:22	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	No	BUY	34	83¢	$28	0xe3809e…
07-20 16:09:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	1,061	93¢	$987	0xd5b778…
07-20 16:08:00	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	2,001	94¢	$1,879	0xa033d3…
07-20 12:11:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	482	95¢	$458	0xe76aa8…
07-20 12:10:42	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	No	BUY	85	82¢	$70	0xcf356c…
07-20 12:09:43	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	599	86¢	$515	0x7bdbdd…
07-20 12:09:33	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	467	85¢	$397	0xae9cf8…
07-20 09:24:15	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,602	80¢	$1,280	0x779273…
07-20 09:23:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	184	67¢	$123	0x4b0677…
07-20 09:22:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	1,026	97¢	$1,000	0x3735ab…
07-20 08:30:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0x708522…
07-20 08:30:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	716	98¢	$700	0x5bf7c8…
07-20 08:29:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	23	75¢	$17	0x1b05b6…
07-20 08:28:06	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	153	95¢	$145	0x2bbe4c…
07-20 08:27:37	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x216f81…
07-20 08:27:18	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	1,002	92¢	$926	0x653322…
07-20 08:26:15	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	435	97¢	$421	0x16ae6d…
07-20 08:23:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	999	86¢	$859	0x159ff8…
07-20 08:19:18	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	331	94¢	$311	0xe2ecaf…
07-20 08:18:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	No	BUY	253	94¢	$238	0x1129f2…
07-20 08:17:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,484	92¢	$1,358	0x09cf49…
07-20 07:53:00	israel military action against greater beirut by july 21 20260708204650549	No	BUY	276	94¢	$259	0x3a83cb…
07-20 07:52:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	2,632	76¢	$2,000	0xb09fbb…
07-20 07:52:33	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	SELL	2,108	70¢	$1,477	0x359bbf…
07-20 07:51:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	1,035	79¢	$817	0x527cfe…
07-20 07:50:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	388	90¢	$349	0x8d153d…
07-20 07:50:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	Yes	BUY	719	97¢	$700	0x846e84…
07-20 07:49:12	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	4,709	90¢	$4,238	0xf9c0e5…
07-20 07:46:45	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	5,843	89¢	$5,200	0xe9c500…
07-20 07:46:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	23,286	73¢	$17,000	0xfcf7be…
07-20 07:45:30	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	126	89¢	$112	0x2cad7d…
07-20 07:44:27	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	119	88¢	$105	0x2429f8…
07-20 07:44:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	517	89¢	$460	0xdee59f…
07-19 09:16:19	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	3,361	59¢	$2,000	0x3b820d…
07-19 09:09:19	will lionel messi score 10 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	362	91¢	$329	0xcbe57f…
07-18 22:16:19	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	4,024	92¢	$3,700	0x24105f…
07-18 22:15:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	10,883	92¢	$10,000	0x1ef7b7…
07-18 22:15:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	20,000	69¢	$13,800	0xb1165f…
07-18 22:14:55	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	1,186	92¢	$1,090	0xfae814…
07-18 22:13:57	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	7,507	92¢	$6,900	0x049d36…
07-18 22:13:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	70¢	$7,000	0x791b79…
07-18 21:45:13	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	England	BUY	3,756	92¢	$3,455	0xaf0d09…