Ugly-Butcher — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$71

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$13.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$189

Open exposure

$393

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-02 03:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

40% 100% +$17

Other

31% 83% +$51

Politics

18% — —

Tech

7% — —

Sports

4% 100% +$3

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes		+535	$396	74¢	$393	$-3	06-02 03:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	2	$941	948	+948	open	—	01-14 04:24
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	2	$806	821	+821	open	—	03-19 05:40
will trump visit china by march 31	1	$666	675	+675	open	—	03-19 05:28
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$612	630	+630	open	—	01-08 08:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	2	$538	555	+555	No	+$17	05-08 11:25
will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	1	$500	506	+506	open	—	01-08 08:29
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	1	$477	502	+502	open	—	04-07 01:31
will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	1	$444	456	+456	open	—	02-08 16:55
Netanyahu out by April 30?	1	$444	448	+448	open	—	04-07 01:32
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	1	$396	535	+535	open	—	06-02 03:38
will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	1	$390	390	+390	open	—	02-25 06:35
bitcoin above 94k on january 13	1	$384	398	+398	open	—	01-12 14:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$371	399	+399	open	—	05-18 03:47
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	1	$362	366	+366	open	—	02-08 16:51
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$333	343	+343	open	—	04-07 01:33
will bnb reach 1000 in february	1	$330	335	+335	open	—	02-08 16:54
will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026	1	$300	315	+315	open	—	01-11 05:40
will robinhood say token during earnings call	2	$297	310	+310	open	—	02-08 16:53
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$292	299	+299	open	—	05-18 03:59
Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 0.5	1	$279	288	+288	Over	+$9	05-09 04:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1	$263	299	+299	open	—	05-18 03:48
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	1	$250	252	+252	open	—	02-09 05:36
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$200	217	+217	open	—	01-08 08:27
Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?	1	$200	206	+206	open	—	02-09 05:36
bitcoin above 86k on january 9	1	$200	206	+206	open	—	01-08 08:30
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	1	$188	198	+198	open	—	02-09 05:36
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	1	$177	242	+242	open	—	03-19 05:28
Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 1.5	1	$158	177	+177	Over	+$19	05-09 04:49
will the price of bitcoin be between 90000 92000 on january 11	1	$157	178	+178	open	—	01-11 05:40
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)	1	$124	188	+188	Galatasaray SK	+$64	05-09 04:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 03:38:17	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	535	74¢	$396	0x667b94…
05-18 03:59:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	299	98¢	$292	0xd13373…
05-18 03:48:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	299	88¢	$263	0x6b7bfc…
05-18 03:47:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	399	93¢	$371	0x7fae02…
05-09 04:50:44	Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	110	71¢	$78	0x1a48a3…
05-09 04:50:09	Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	288	97¢	$279	0x4236b6…
05-09 04:49:27	Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	177	89¢	$158	0xe5a0d8…
05-09 04:48:53	Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5)	Galatasaray SK	BUY	188	66¢	$124	0x79fe98…
05-08 11:25:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	531	97¢	$515	0xffc259…
05-08 10:44:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0xd66947…
04-22 15:09:32	mls tor phi 2026 04 22 spread away 1pt5	Toronto FC	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0x8930b6…
04-22 15:09:04	mls tor phi 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	101	76¢	$77	0xea415e…
04-22 15:06:38	mls tor phi 2026 04 22 phi	No	BUY	119	65¢	$77	0xadf162…
04-14 05:24:57	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	121	98¢	$119	0x7f8bf6…
04-09 05:39:15	epl ars bou 2026 04 11 ars	Yes	BUY	80	69¢	$56	0xb6efb0…
04-09 05:39:09	epl ars bou 2026 04 11 bou	No	BUY	88	88¢	$77	0xb310f2…
04-09 05:38:51	epl ars bou 2026 04 11 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	120	64¢	$77	0x1566ad…
04-08 03:10:51	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x0b8626…
04-07 01:33:31	nba cle mem 2026 04 06	Cavaliers	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0x024e33…
04-07 01:33:15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	343	97¢	$333	0x64eb83…
04-07 01:32:41	Netanyahu out by April 30?	No	BUY	448	99¢	$444	0x2b0417…
04-07 01:31:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	502	95¢	$477	0xd65ae6…
03-28 07:50:07	will ethereum reach 2400 in march 2026	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0xa51812…
03-26 10:32:33	highest temperature in shanghai on march 27 2026 15c	No	BUY	24	75¢	$18	0x6fef1a…
03-19 05:40:45	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	BUY	155	99¢	$154	0xcd300e…
03-19 05:28:49	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	BUY	192	40¢	$77	0x6b68d8…
03-19 05:28:43	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	675	99¢	$666	0x86f924…
03-19 05:28:03	Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?	Yes	BUY	242	73¢	$177	0x04f2cd…
03-05 08:32:27	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	BUY	666	98¢	$652	0xbec62e…
03-05 07:12:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0x12b0a0…
03-05 07:12:23	Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	101	76¢	$77	0xecc7db…
03-05 07:12:13	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	352	22¢	$77	0x2a3e30…
03-05 07:12:01	Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	154	50¢	$77	0x925395…
02-25 06:35:58	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	BUY	390	100¢	$390	0x32ea24…
02-25 06:34:34	will choosin texas by ella langley be the billboard 1 song for the week of march 7	Yes	BUY	98	78¢	$77	0x62c602…
02-25 06:33:40	epl liv wes 2026 02 28 liv	Yes	BUY	110	70¢	$77	0x7b0000…
02-25 06:33:22	sea cre mil 2026 03 01 cre	No	BUY	89	87¢	$77	0x0fcdeb…
02-25 06:33:08	sea com lec 2026 02 28 com	Yes	BUY	67	70¢	$47	0x93a621…
02-09 05:36:59	will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	No	BUY	252	99¢	$250	0x7569f5…
02-09 05:36:23	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?	Yes	BUY	198	95¢	$188	0xbca791…
02-09 05:36:07	Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?	Yes	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xcfea01…
02-09 05:32:39	ethereum above 2100 on february 9	Yes	BUY	49	45¢	$22	0xf5472b…
02-08 16:56:13	epl che lee 2026 02 10 che	Yes	BUY	122	63¢	$77	0x485b48…
02-08 16:55:51	will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	No	BUY	456	97¢	$444	0x3f83c4…
02-08 16:54:13	will bnb reach 1000 in february	No	BUY	335	99¢	$330	0xf8164d…
02-08 16:53:03	will robinhood say token during earnings call	Yes	BUY	228	96¢	$220	0x95f986…
02-08 16:52:43	will robinhood say token during earnings call	Yes	BUY	82	94¢	$77	0x3d9649…
02-08 16:52:27	will robinhood say gold during earnings call	Yes	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0x756a80…
02-08 16:52:13	will robinhood say billion 10 times during earnings call	No	BUY	107	72¢	$77	0x9acc3d…
02-08 16:51:49	will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	No	BUY	366	99¢	$362	0x952ced…
02-08 16:51:15	sea int juv 2026 02 14 draw	Yes	BUY	257	30¢	$77	0x1fc771…
02-08 16:51:07	sea int juv 2026 02 14 int	Yes	BUY	161	48¢	$77	0x0f074f…
02-08 16:50:57	sea pis mil 2026 02 13 mil	No	BUY	89	37¢	$33	0xf52623…
02-08 16:50:35	sea rom cag 2026 02 09 rom	Yes	BUY	118	65¢	$77	0x8982e3…
02-08 16:50:27	sea sas int 2026 02 08 int	Yes	BUY	113	68¢	$77	0x240237…
02-08 16:50:15	sea juv laz 2026 02 08 juv	No	BUY	241	32¢	$77	0x799da1…
01-14 04:24:18	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	BUY	401	99¢	$398	0x95e127…
01-12 14:10:38	bitcoin above 94k on january 13	No	BUY	398	96¢	$384	0x09b0e9…
01-11 05:40:48	will the price of bitcoin be between 90000 92000 on january 11	Yes	BUY	178	88¢	$157	0x10ca0e…
01-11 05:40:24	will ethereum reach 4000 in january 2026	No	BUY	315	95¢	$300	0x6c7ba2…
01-08 11:04:45	israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	No	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0x3339ab…
01-08 08:30:31	bitcoin above 86k on january 9	Yes	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x39e34f…
01-08 08:29:31	will ethereum reach 4600 in january 2026	No	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0x8f8bf2…
01-08 08:28:55	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x65ca4c…
01-08 08:28:45	Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x2967e3…
01-08 08:28:35	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x2d8a0d…
01-08 08:28:17	bitcoin etf flows on january 8	Positive	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x51c7d8…
01-08 08:27:39	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0xe35ef3…
01-08 08:26:37	ethereum above 3300 on january 8	Yes	BUY	917	2¢	$20	0x46c058…
01-08 08:26:05	btc updown 4h 1767848400	Up	BUY	97	10¢	$10	0x44f77a…
01-08 08:25:33	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	630	97¢	$612	0x2ee780…
01-08 08:25:13	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	BUY	547	99¢	$543	0x72b005…