Monthly-Trail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

Trades

180

lifetime

Volume

$1.30K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-02 09:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

36% 100% +$1

Crypto

34% — —

Politics

26% 0% $-7

Sports

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes		+11	$10	76¢	$8	$-2	06-02 12:00
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	07-01 09:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	04-15 12:28
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	02-01 21:04
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	1	$24	25	0	+25	open	—	03-04 18:54
spx up or down on march 9 2026	3	$22	31	20	+11	open	—	03-09 17:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	04-16 13:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$17	11	11	+0	open	—	02-28 14:23
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	03-04 15:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	05-01 12:16
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	1	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	03-04 15:37
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	02-01 08:20
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	1	$14	15	0	+15	open	—	02-02 09:28
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	03-09 07:33
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	04-19 15:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	01-15 15:58
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	02-04 18:50
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	1	$13	13	0	+13	open	—	02-05 20:42
btc updown 5m 1781968800	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	06-20 15:25
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	01-31 08:46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	1	$12	14	0	+14	open	—	06-03 05:54
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	1	$11	13	0	+13	open	—	01-14 10:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$11	13	0	+13	open	—	06-01 08:30
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	01-28 23:02
btc updown 5m 1775339400	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-04 21:53
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	05-18 08:30
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	01-13 09:15
btc updown 5m 1775081400	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-01 22:13
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	01-12 22:13
btc updown 5m 1782390300	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	06-25 12:28
btc updown 5m 1782387900	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	06-25 11:47
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	01-10 08:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 09:34:34	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Nothing	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x8b7946…
07-02 09:32:07	will paraguay reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149723	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x57e3bc…
07-02 09:32:01	will australia reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149722	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xb3ee10…
07-02 09:31:44	will algeria reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149747	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x19321e…
07-02 09:29:25	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x405483…
07-01 09:39:41	wti closes above 72 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe68748…
07-01 09:39:22	wti closes above 67 on july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x6b0f42…
07-01 09:16:11	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xeb6156…
06-30 23:04:56	btc updown 5m 1782860400	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x84f9c0…
06-30 23:04:46	btc updown 5m 1782860400	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xabcad9…
06-30 08:37:11	btc updown 5m 1782808500	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xeef9ba…
06-30 08:33:52	btc updown 5m 1782808200	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x553a1a…
06-30 08:27:13	btc updown 5m 1782807900	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x73adb9…
06-30 08:26:28	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9f0469…
06-30 08:26:17	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xbe869e…
06-30 08:05:01	btc updown 5m 1782806400	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xd9fb36…
06-30 05:23:55	btc updown 5m 1782796800	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x5a1be3…
06-29 21:58:14	btc updown 5m 1782770100	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xfc2e5a…
06-29 21:54:10	btc updown 5m 1782769800	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb69fa0…
06-29 21:48:40	btc updown 5m 1782769500	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x194a7f…
06-29 21:38:53	btc updown 5m 1782768900	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3af4d1…
06-29 21:29:43	btc updown 5m 1782768300	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe3cfe5…
06-29 16:14:31	btc updown 5m 1782749400	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa1bafa…
06-29 05:43:23	btc updown 5m 1782711600	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xaeb30e…
06-25 20:29:50	btc updown 5m 1782419100	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc5a4ba…
06-25 13:08:01	btc updown 5m 1782392700	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xb1ceed…
06-25 13:03:14	btc updown 5m 1782392400	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x230e12…
06-25 12:49:58	btc updown 5m 1782391500	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb95ea5…
06-25 12:44:35	btc updown 5m 1782391200	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9380c4…
06-25 12:39:14	btc updown 5m 1782390900	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x6d11f9…
06-25 12:28:22	btc updown 5m 1782390300	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x9ba28a…
06-25 12:27:04	btc updown 5m 1782390300	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xacd16b…
06-25 12:17:55	btc updown 5m 1782389700	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x92b2e2…
06-25 12:14:10	btc updown 5m 1782389400	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xeadcbe…
06-25 12:09:53	btc updown 5m 1782389100	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x19368d…
06-25 12:02:04	btc updown 5m 1782388800	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x95fab9…
06-25 11:52:56	btc updown 5m 1782388200	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x219b2a…
06-25 11:47:56	btc updown 5m 1782387900	Down	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x9a7383…
06-25 11:47:32	btc updown 5m 1782387900	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x90df7e…
06-25 11:44:59	btc updown 5m 1782387600	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xce8b4c…
06-25 08:33:44	btc updown 5m 1782376200	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x275dae…
06-25 08:25:56	btc updown 5m 1782375900	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x89ec5a…
06-25 08:23:41	btc updown 5m 1782375600	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xc7e006…
06-25 08:20:56	btc updown 15m 1782375300	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x95094e…
06-25 08:16:02	btc updown 5m 1782375300	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x4b4782…
06-22 19:04:14	btc updown 5m 1782154800	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x808b74…
06-21 20:58:08	btc updown 5m 1782075300	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x34b632…
06-21 20:39:47	btc updown 5m 1782074100	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc174f3…
06-21 20:33:55	btc updown 5m 1782073800	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xf80d04…
06-21 20:29:47	btc updown 5m 1782073500	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xd20a5c…
06-21 07:19:41	btc updown 5m 1782026100	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3172b3…
06-21 06:09:37	btc updown 5m 1782021900	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xa6793d…
06-20 15:33:52	btc updown 5m 1781969400	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xfe76a0…
06-20 15:25:10	btc updown 5m 1781968800	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe6d823…
06-20 15:21:47	btc updown 5m 1781968800	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x602bfb…
06-20 15:18:37	btc updown 5m 1781968500	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb70da3…
06-20 14:58:29	btc updown 5m 1781967300	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x6fed47…
06-20 14:53:55	btc updown 5m 1781967000	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x868497…
06-20 14:18:35	btc updown 5m 1781964900	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xccabf1…
06-18 17:37:22	btc updown 5m 1781804100	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdd4fb8…
06-18 17:28:49	btc updown 5m 1781803500	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xec3f67…
06-16 17:04:13	btc updown 5m 1781629200	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7cf49e…
06-16 16:54:23	btc updown 5m 1781628600	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x9e5ad0…
06-16 16:43:50	btc updown 5m 1781628000	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x5de2b8…
06-16 16:34:05	btc updown 5m 1781627400	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xef71b8…
06-16 16:29:22	btc updown 5m 1781627100	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7b47e8…
06-16 15:49:47	btc updown 5m 1781624700	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4156f8…
06-16 14:28:04	btc updown 5m 1781619900	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x319319…
06-16 14:23:22	btc updown 5m 1781619600	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xe4a3b2…
06-16 14:14:04	btc updown 5m 1781619000	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x753579…
06-16 13:59:46	btc updown 5m 1781618100	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xab5047…
06-16 10:04:55	btc updown 5m 1781604000	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x33d80d…
06-16 08:19:58	btc updown 5m 1781597700	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x466188…
06-16 08:03:15	btc updown 5m 1781596800	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xe52fbf…
06-16 07:59:54	btc updown 5m 1781596500	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xea800f…
06-15 18:28:27	btc updown 5m 1781547900	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x56afbd…
06-15 18:19:42	btc updown 5m 1781547300	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe3a43c…
06-15 18:14:57	btc updown 5m 1781547000	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x65fbc5…
06-15 18:09:57	btc updown 5m 1781546700	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xb56ad7…
06-03 05:54:36	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0x861450…
06-02 12:00:51	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x33cdde…
06-01 08:30:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0xdc2cd5…
05-18 08:30:11	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xc69966…
05-18 08:22:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xe3f1cf…
05-04 12:03:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x2430b0…
05-04 12:01:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x32725d…
05-02 16:50:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x70b81a…
05-02 16:49:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x12a99e…
05-01 12:28:56	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xc5c477…
05-01 12:16:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x6790cc…
04-30 11:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xfbe82f…
04-30 11:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xfa0a85…
04-28 16:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf76cd3…
04-27 08:22:28	Major US official out by April 30?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf1f806…
04-27 08:19:06	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xfb7aa4…
04-20 13:24:26	btc updown 5m 1776691200	Down	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0xbb5d87…
04-20 13:16:46	btc updown 5m 1776690900	Down	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x1a74d2…
04-19 15:49:34	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$13	0xc2531c…
04-16 13:58:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	13	81¢	$11	0xf95371…
04-15 12:35:32	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x90efdf…