Bowed-Definition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$397

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$112

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 06-29 15:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

42% — —

Crypto

28% — —

Sports

17% 100% +$1

Politics

13% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	-61	$-56	94¢	$-58	$-1	06-27 11:51
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-61	$-52	87¢	$-53	$-1	06-27 11:51
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	-1	$-1	88¢	$-1	$-0	06-27 11:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	6	$159	407	407	+0	open	—	06-14 15:33
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	2	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	06-29 15:02
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$56	0	61	-61	open	—	06-27 11:51
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$52	0	61	-61	open	—	06-27 11:51
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$50	29	29	+0	open	—	06-29 15:02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-06 00:34
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	02-28 10:05
Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	01-31 13:21
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	01-31 13:21
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-30 07:32
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	1	$1	0	1	-1	open	—	06-27 11:52
Wild vs. Avalanche	1	$1	1	0	+1	Avalanche	+$0	05-06 00:33
Lakers vs. Thunder	1	$1	1	0	+1	Thunder	+$0	05-06 00:33
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	1	$1	1	0	+1	Pistons	+$0	05-06 00:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 15:02:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	85¢	$25	0xb08f1e…
06-29 15:02:37	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x3cff5b…
06-27 11:55:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0x4ad685…
06-27 11:55:10	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x232f76…
06-27 11:52:16	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0220ab…
06-27 11:51:59	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	61	86¢	$52	0xbad9e9…
06-27 11:51:52	Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	61	92¢	$56	0xcd4d3b…
06-14 15:33:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	407	17¢	$69	0x450773…
05-30 07:32:33	Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo	Alejandro Tabilo	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0x463609…
05-30 07:32:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	55	22¢	$12	0xc64584…
05-30 07:31:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0x9887fe…
05-30 07:31:41	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0x383205…
05-30 07:31:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0x248896…
05-30 07:31:29	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	88	22¢	$19	0xa291c0…
05-06 00:34:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xb5d53e…
05-06 00:33:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x1394ff…
05-06 00:33:42	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5e77c4…
05-06 00:33:28	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x069876…
05-06 00:33:16	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x33f89f…
02-28 10:05:55	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x2be2cb…
01-31 13:21:34	Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x309e01…
01-31 13:21:26	Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x833a30…