Lumpy-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$150.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$39

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

68,054

Trades

296,283

lifetime

Volume

$5.39M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$148

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-31 07:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 181 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 60% +$149,598

Other

1% 70% +$1,189

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2618 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	—	+150	$103	98¢	$148	+$44	10-31 07:52
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	—	+26	$6	1¢	$0	-$6	10-31 07:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:25 UTC	36	$12.1K	12,313	+12,313	Down	-$43	07-31 22:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	42	$12.0K	12,250	+12,250	Down	+$248	07-21 02:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:30 UTC	6	$12.0K	12,140	+12,140	Up	+$153	07-31 22:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 18:35 UTC	4	$12.0K	12,500	+12,500	Up	+$30	07-24 18:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 08:40 UTC	9	$11.9K	12,034	+12,034	Down	+$151	08-02 08:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:05 UTC	10	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	08-03 07:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 18:55 UTC	21	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-24 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 10:05 UTC	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Up	+$120	07-29 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-21 00:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 05:20 UTC	4	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-24 05:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 12:55 UTC	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-26 13:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 21:45 UTC	1	$11.8K	11,990	+11,990	Up	+$203	07-24 21:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 02:05 UTC	1	$11.8K	12,000	+12,000	Up	+$215	07-25 02:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 02:55 UTC	51	$11.0K	11,130	+11,130	Down	+$147	08-03 03:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 11:55 UTC	6	$10.9K	11,000	+11,000	Up	+$110	07-21 12:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 00:20 UTC	74	$10.2K	10,340	+10,340	Up	+$103	07-22 00:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 23:10 UTC	25	$10.1K	10,350	+10,350	Down	+$275	07-24 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	27	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Up	+$100	07-21 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:15 UTC	12	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Down	+$100	08-06 19:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 23:45 UTC	6	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Down	+$105	08-01 23:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 10:00 UTC	3	$9.7K	10,012	+10,012	Up	+$253	08-05 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	24	$8.5K	8,625	+8,625	Up	+$87	05-31 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	14	$8.4K	8,518	+8,518	Up	+$85	07-25 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	11	$8.4K	8,515	+8,515	Up	+$85	05-31 11:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 22:10 UTC	50	$8.1K	8,323	+8,323	Up	-$100	07-25 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 21:25 UTC	4	$8.0K	8,350	+8,350	Up	+$304	07-25 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:40 UTC	31	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Down	+$24	07-31 22:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:25 UTC	88	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Down	+$35	08-03 07:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 19:45 UTC	2	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Up	+$35	07-25 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 23:00 UTC	34	$8.0K	8,059	+8,059	Up	+$97	07-26 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 07:56:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	23¢	$6	0x6160bd…
10-31 07:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0x0ac662…
10-31 07:47:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	88¢	$17	0xa5cb43…
10-31 07:47:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x3868a4…
10-31 07:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	77	86¢	$66	0x84d76b…
10-31 07:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	46	93¢	$43	0xd0dc3a…
10-31 07:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	41	54¢	$22	0x90c129…
10-31 07:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	77¢	$1	0xd5cd6c…
10-31 07:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	58	85¢	$50	0x0bf15e…
10-31 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xbfc6b0…
10-31 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xadc1bc…
10-31 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	27	87¢	$23	0x5a12df…
10-31 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x44746a…
10-31 07:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x2b558b…
10-31 07:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	300	57¢	$171	0x3afeb8…
10-31 07:03:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xbb1203…
10-31 07:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	42	83¢	$35	0xeae978…
10-31 07:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	43	83¢	$35	0x363bec…
10-31 07:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	26	43¢	$11	0xa93f44…
10-31 06:53:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0xd7dca5…
10-31 06:53:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x217e97…
10-31 06:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x7314b1…
10-31 06:47:24	XRP Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	92¢	$18	0xe2aeef…
10-31 06:47:24	XRP Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	92¢	$18	0x17ae44…
10-31 06:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x5827a3…
10-31 06:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0xa014bf…
10-31 06:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x4c414c…
10-31 06:43:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xea717a…
10-31 06:43:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	47	80¢	$38	0xeabbb3…
10-31 06:41:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	151	83¢	$126	0xa2b932…
10-31 06:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x916ba9…
10-31 06:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x61f28f…
10-31 06:33:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	32	11¢	$3	0x9e6efd…
10-31 06:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xa1ba7d…
10-31 06:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	96	38¢	$37	0x125caf…
10-31 06:27:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xf370ed…
10-31 06:21:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xcf90ec…
10-31 06:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	64	80¢	$51	0x7d4994…
10-31 06:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x55692e…
10-31 06:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xa48663…
10-31 06:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xa0f04d…
10-31 06:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	101	68¢	$69	0x27db93…
10-31 05:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	182	53¢	$97	0x9a1bc0…
10-31 05:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	106	73¢	$78	0xd0048d…
10-31 05:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	59	70¢	$41	0xff8486…
10-31 05:49:39	XRP Up or Down - October 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xe4c26c…
10-31 05:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x337748…
10-31 05:43:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xf1bbe8…
10-31 05:43:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	85	87¢	$74	0x136364…
10-31 05:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	72	45¢	$32	0x1644d0…
10-31 05:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0xcb910b…
10-31 05:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0x81dfe2…
10-31 05:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x34ead9…
10-31 05:02:52	XRP Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	76¢	$17	0x665ea8…
10-31 05:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	151	85¢	$129	0x9f11c8…
10-31 05:01:01	XRP Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x9549b2…
10-31 04:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0xcc5882…
10-31 04:53:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	155	29¢	$45	0xf62b0d…
10-31 04:53:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x949193…
10-31 04:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x0b7cd2…
10-31 04:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	64	89¢	$57	0x0902a9…
10-31 04:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x8da165…
10-31 04:43:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x2d4827…
10-31 04:40:37	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	84¢	$9	0xe96445…
10-31 04:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	54	77¢	$42	0x2257a5…
10-31 04:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	28	24¢	$7	0x45e634…
10-31 04:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x325103…
10-31 04:25:28	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x680fb5…
10-31 04:22:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0xfe77f4…
10-31 04:20:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x9c5e23…
10-31 04:16:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xc6cbda…
10-31 04:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa34de7…
10-31 04:03:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xb8a748…
10-31 04:03:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	44	31¢	$14	0x7aa912…
10-31 04:00:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	30¢	$8	0xa20f71…
10-31 03:50:15	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	81¢	$11	0x24ff65…
10-31 03:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	99	66¢	$65	0xfa3ffd…
10-31 03:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0x5a07dc…
10-31 03:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	23	68¢	$16	0x42b52c…
10-31 03:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x35baa7…
10-31 03:34:58	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	88¢	$3	0x5a0a3c…
10-31 03:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	59	72¢	$42	0xdccc66…
10-31 03:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xb9cf1a…
10-31 03:25:33	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x7dc9d1…
10-31 03:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	79	81¢	$64	0x32e263…
10-31 03:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	103	95¢	$98	0xbcf007…
10-31 03:12:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	150	89¢	$134	0x00f2a3…
10-31 03:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x6fce9d…
10-31 03:07:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x315627…
10-31 03:05:33	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf6ada4…
10-31 03:03:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x778091…
10-31 02:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	112	68¢	$76	0x948819…
10-31 02:48:01	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x995412…
10-31 02:48:01	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x88d4c6…
10-31 02:48:01	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x4cb068…
10-31 02:48:01	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x3a27ad…
10-31 02:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x736a64…
10-31 02:36:48	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x945e94…
10-31 02:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	91	36¢	$33	0x775f44…
10-31 02:18:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	101	32¢	$32	0xe51038…