Lumpy-Pagoda — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$150.3K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

67,864

Trades

295,860

lifetime

Volume

$5.38M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 10-30 17:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 180 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 60% +$149,141

Other

1% 70% +$1,197

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2618 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:25 UTC	36	$12.1K	12,313	+12,313	Down	-$43	07-31 22:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-21 02:15 UTC	42	$12.0K	12,250	+12,250	Down	+$248	07-21 02:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:30 UTC	6	$12.0K	12,140	+12,140	Up	+$153	07-31 22:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 18:35 UTC	4	$12.0K	12,500	+12,500	Up	+$30	07-24 18:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 08:40 UTC	9	$11.9K	12,034	+12,034	Down	+$151	08-02 08:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:05 UTC	10	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	08-03 07:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 18:55 UTC	21	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-24 19:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 10:05 UTC	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Up	+$120	07-29 10:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-21 00:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 05:20 UTC	4	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-24 05:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 12:55 UTC	1	$11.9K	12,000	+12,000	Down	+$120	07-26 13:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 21:45 UTC	1	$11.8K	11,990	+11,990	Up	+$203	07-24 21:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 02:05 UTC	1	$11.8K	12,000	+12,000	Up	+$215	07-25 02:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 02:55 UTC	51	$11.0K	11,130	+11,130	Down	+$147	08-03 03:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 11:55 UTC	6	$10.9K	11,000	+11,000	Up	+$110	07-21 12:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 00:20 UTC	74	$10.2K	10,340	+10,340	Up	+$103	07-22 00:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 23:10 UTC	25	$10.1K	10,350	+10,350	Down	+$275	07-24 23:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	27	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Up	+$100	07-21 12:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:15 UTC	12	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Down	+$100	08-06 19:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 23:45 UTC	6	$9.9K	10,000	+10,000	Down	+$105	08-01 23:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 10:00 UTC	3	$9.7K	10,012	+10,012	Up	+$253	08-05 10:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	24	$8.5K	8,625	+8,625	Up	+$87	05-31 15:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	14	$8.4K	8,518	+8,518	Up	+$85	07-25 02:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	11	$8.4K	8,515	+8,515	Up	+$85	05-31 11:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 22:10 UTC	50	$8.1K	8,323	+8,323	Up	-$100	07-25 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 21:25 UTC	4	$8.0K	8,350	+8,350	Up	+$304	07-25 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:40 UTC	31	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Down	+$24	07-31 22:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 07:25 UTC	88	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Down	+$35	08-03 07:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-25 19:45 UTC	2	$8.0K	8,100	+8,100	Up	+$35	07-25 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 23:00 UTC	34	$8.0K	8,059	+8,059	Up	+$97	07-26 23:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 17:48:42	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xf20c38…
10-30 17:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	150	38¢	$57	0xc2839a…
10-30 17:42:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x38f27b…
10-30 17:41:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xfeddf0…
10-30 17:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xbd792e…
10-30 17:36:52	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	21	76¢	$16	0x6f8b78…
10-30 17:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	43	37¢	$16	0x2506af…
10-30 17:29:04	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x07d3ba…
10-30 17:27:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xca3e3b…
10-30 17:20:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x594f32…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xfc0e5e…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	83¢	$15	0xc2016d…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xab3902…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$9	0x97763b…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x7e7d95…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	83¢	$19	0x4517d7…
10-30 17:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	70	83¢	$58	0x170ad3…
10-30 17:18:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x677ceb…
10-30 17:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	65¢	$13	0x865967…
10-30 17:13:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x8745de…
10-30 17:08:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	94¢	$13	0x889759…
10-30 17:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xee09c3…
10-30 17:00:27	Solana Up or Down - October 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x22dabf…
10-30 16:58:55	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb1f869…
10-30 16:58:30	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x4493f8…
10-30 16:51:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0xa90be4…
10-30 16:51:37	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x76ce56…
10-30 16:50:52	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xa43751…
10-30 16:49:40	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x4907b1…
10-30 16:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x3ba8a4…
10-30 16:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x7e69cc…
10-30 16:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x330020…
10-30 16:42:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0xf1ffbe…
10-30 16:41:01	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x59225c…
10-30 16:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0x7ce97f…
10-30 16:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	26¢	$7	0x8da575…
10-30 16:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	26	26¢	$7	0x4e299c…
10-30 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0xf59688…
10-30 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xc02ade…
10-30 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x54cb13…
10-30 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x529bc9…
10-30 16:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x06f749…
10-30 16:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xed70ed…
10-30 16:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x2686b5…
10-30 16:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	75	74¢	$56	0x5e1882…
10-30 16:32:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x6f00c2…
10-30 16:32:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	29	92¢	$26	0x06f881…
10-30 16:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	150	54¢	$81	0x84109d…
10-30 16:17:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	150	84¢	$126	0x9c2a8d…
10-30 16:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x6b7662…
10-30 16:02:07	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x5d482f…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xe58c8b…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0xb3bd4a…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xb0d449…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	19¢	$2	0x9b41d1…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x95dcb6…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x685b89…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	19¢	$3	0x12dcf8…
10-30 15:57:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x013be5…
10-30 15:57:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x30abcb…
10-30 15:56:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0x330aef…
10-30 15:54:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x3672a1…
10-30 15:46:18	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x8dc792…
10-30 15:45:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xba9cc7…
10-30 15:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	45	19¢	$9	0x2d0c61…
10-30 15:40:07	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0xc2b319…
10-30 15:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x9ac0ad…
10-30 15:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0x5d19fd…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0xff0174…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xe6498b…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xdfd290…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xbafd43…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x9d8ad1…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x6a6c16…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x540459…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x454f36…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x2f55ef…
10-30 15:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x16fbc1…
10-30 15:38:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0x092131…
10-30 15:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xc85fe3…
10-30 15:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x4fc746…
10-30 15:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x2c783b…
10-30 15:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	75	25¢	$19	0x4e09a5…
10-30 15:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0xd2cffd…
10-30 15:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xe61b71…
10-30 15:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x922a3e…
10-30 15:22:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xc317b3…
10-30 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x42eb47…
10-30 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x405596…
10-30 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	58¢	$3	0x23a9d6…
10-30 15:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x2ddd84…
10-30 15:13:52	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0xdcaf49…
10-30 15:09:37	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0x71c557…
10-30 14:58:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	150	81¢	$122	0x28d2f6…
10-30 14:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xe92d98…
10-30 14:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x9b21fe…
10-30 14:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	21	62¢	$13	0x54579b…
10-30 14:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x38cad1…
10-30 14:57:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x269046…
10-30 14:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x2fd88a…