Quarterly-Reasoning — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$124

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 05-23 02:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

71% 50% $-42

Politics

27% 0% $-2

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx opens up or down on april 8 2026	2	$1.2K	744	744	+0	open	—	04-08 16:25
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	3	$829	641	641	+0	open	—	04-07 21:47
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	4	$625	410	410	+0	open	—	03-23 11:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$619	358	358	+0	open	—	01-17 17:59
qqq up or down on april 13 2026	3	$562	793	775	+17	open	—	04-13 17:00
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	2	$473	263	263	+0	open	—	05-18 20:02
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 4?	2	$415	215	215	+0	Yes	+$15	05-04 20:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	3	$380	267	267	+0	open	—	05-06 11:25
qqq up or down on april 22 2026	2	$343	211	208	+3	open	—	04-22 19:29
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	2	$329	208	206	+2	open	—	04-13 02:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	2	$275	5,593	5,593	+0	open	—	05-23 02:04
will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	2	$257	137	137	+0	open	—	04-22 01:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$230	448	336	+112	open	—	05-18 17:58
qqq up or down on april 15 2026	1	$192	199	0	+199	open	—	04-15 16:32
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 6?	2	$183	217	217	+0	Yes	$-57	05-06 16:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$177	216	211	+5	open	—	04-21 16:11
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$162	948	948	+0	open	—	03-15 21:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$143	500	500	+0	open	—	05-23 02:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$142	125	125	+0	open	—	05-06 11:25
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	1	$130	197	0	+197	open	—	04-27 19:14
spy up or down on april 16 2026	4	$99	261	88	+173	open	—	04-16 17:58
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$96	62	62	+0	open	—	03-14 12:56
spx opens up or down on january 23 2026	2	$77	60	60	+0	open	—	01-23 13:23
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	1	$67	318	0	+318	open	—	05-23 02:38
spx opens up or down on january 22 2026	3	$54	89	45	+44	open	—	01-22 09:17
qqq up or down on april 20 2026	2	$49	29	29	+0	open	—	04-20 22:08
spy up or down on april 17 2026	2	$48	89	87	+2	open	—	04-17 13:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$34	274	274	+0	open	—	02-28 20:43
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$33	21	21	+0	open	—	03-01 22:18
will trump say stagflation during iowa speech 838	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	01-27 22:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 02:38:45	Golden Knights vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	318	21¢	$67	0x4b9b99…
05-23 02:36:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	SELL	500	14¢	$68	0x756215…
05-23 02:05:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	500	15¢	$75	0xbed356…
05-23 02:04:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	SELL	5,593	1¢	$75	0x0e21cb…
05-23 01:05:16	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	BUY	5,593	4¢	$200	0x0cfe20…
05-18 20:02:46	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	SELL	263	100¢	$263	0x7c39cf…
05-18 17:58:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	336	7¢	$24	0x732de7…
05-18 16:03:33	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	Down	BUY	263	80¢	$210	0x813555…
05-06 16:10:15	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 6?	No	SELL	217	29¢	$63	0x6d122b…
05-06 14:03:56	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 6?	No	BUY	217	55¢	$120	0x4eeee1…
05-06 11:25:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	SELL	267	86¢	$230	0xdd2d2c…
05-06 11:25:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	125	34¢	$42	0xa5a449…
05-05 03:12:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x0075b9…
05-05 03:11:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xb2d1b8…
05-05 03:11:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0x70193f…
05-04 20:16:26	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 4?	Yes	SELL	215	100¢	$215	0x7345b1…
05-04 17:46:06	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x0aab73…
04-27 19:14:04	QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	197	66¢	$130	0x49bb3f…
04-22 19:34:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	448	46¢	$206	0xc28d0b…
04-22 19:29:00	qqq up or down on april 22 2026	Up	SELL	208	99¢	$206	0xa2be1b…
04-22 01:17:30	qqq up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	211	65¢	$137	0x0273a5…
04-22 01:14:34	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	SELL	137	100¢	$137	0x3642c6…
04-21 18:22:38	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	137	87¢	$120	0x54ecf8…
04-21 16:11:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	211	44¢	$93	0xb4084c…
04-20 22:08:38	qqq up or down on april 20 2026	Down	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x5fcf0c…
04-19 23:16:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	216	39¢	$84	0xe7198a…
04-18 21:05:18	qqq up or down on april 20 2026	Down	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x5dc92f…
04-17 13:12:32	spy up or down on april 17 2026	Down	SELL	87	9¢	$8	0xcf691b…
04-17 04:40:06	spy up or down on april 17 2026	Down	BUY	89	45¢	$40	0xe29bd1…
04-16 17:58:20	spy up or down on april 16 2026	Down	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0x0f9fc5…
04-16 16:55:44	spy up or down on april 16 2026	Down	BUY	68	29¢	$20	0x1c4277…
04-16 16:46:32	spy up or down on april 16 2026	Down	SELL	88	21¢	$19	0x2bb1b6…
04-16 15:27:12	spy up or down on april 16 2026	Down	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x0c9338…
04-15 16:32:50	qqq up or down on april 15 2026	Up	BUY	199	97¢	$192	0xec91f3…
04-13 17:00:43	qqq up or down on april 13 2026	Down	SELL	388	9¢	$34	0x7d6024…
04-13 02:54:09	tsla up or down on april 13 2026	Down	SELL	206	78¢	$161	0x239ce3…
04-12 13:32:29	tsla up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	208	81¢	$168	0xf83979…
04-12 03:06:21	qqq up or down on april 13 2026	Down	SELL	388	44¢	$172	0x5994ed…
04-12 02:30:43	qqq up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	793	45¢	$356	0xb51ee4…
04-08 16:25:57	spx opens up or down on april 8 2026	Up	SELL	744	100¢	$743	0x353c53…
04-07 21:49:13	spx opens up or down on april 8 2026	Up	BUY	744	62¢	$461	0xf74d4c…
04-07 21:47:01	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	SELL	641	72¢	$461	0x89a893…
03-28 21:45:08	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	314	62¢	$195	0x962973…
03-23 11:33:35	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	SELL	205	95¢	$195	0x59e491…
03-19 02:52:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	327	53¢	$173	0xa81a13…
03-19 01:25:39	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	SELL	205	85¢	$173	0xf68dd7…
03-15 21:31:45	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	BUY	155	69¢	$107	0xe5c563…
03-15 21:27:55	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	948	11¢	$107	0x40c169…
03-14 13:01:57	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	948	6¢	$56	0x74fb58…
03-14 12:56:49	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	62	74¢	$46	0x733e92…
03-14 12:56:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	37¢	$10	0xe2ab2f…
03-09 14:24:01	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	BUY	254	59¢	$150	0x0021ce…
03-01 22:19:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	BUY	128	14¢	$18	0x26b103…
03-01 22:18:19	Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	21	87¢	$18	0x61c960…
02-28 22:53:27	Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0x1e39b6…
02-28 20:43:21	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	SELL	274	6¢	$15	0xb9a9ba…
02-28 20:41:57	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	274	7¢	$19	0x282666…
01-31 07:58:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0x85c18a…
01-27 22:57:15	will trump say stagflation during iowa speech 838	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x83a242…
01-23 13:23:32	spx opens up or down on january 23 2026	Up	SELL	60	48¢	$29	0x578c5a…
01-23 06:31:26	spx opens up or down on january 23 2026	Up	BUY	60	81¢	$48	0x1197a9…
01-22 09:17:22	spx opens up or down on january 22 2026	Down	SELL	45	10¢	$5	0xc59ff9…
01-22 09:17:08	spx opens up or down on january 22 2026	Up	BUY	44	90¢	$39	0x2c1889…
01-22 07:43:54	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x2ff1e5…
01-22 07:39:08	spx opens up or down on january 22 2026	Down	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x8576b7…
01-17 17:59:24	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	SELL	358	92¢	$329	0x916918…
01-10 19:01:32	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	358	81¢	$290	0xb2f572…