That-Macadamia — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$357

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

Trades

15,417

lifetime

Volume

$852.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-02 02:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

60% 86% +$53

Other

38% 80% +$304

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 381 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	161	$121.2K	65,000	59,658	+5,342	open	—	01-21 01:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	65	$72.4K	74,854	34,586	+40,268	open	—	03-03 17:17
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$69.3K	69,497	0	+69,497	open	—	04-07 09:46
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$44.4K	44,900	0	+44,900	open	—	03-05 12:01
netanyahu out by march 31 854	105	$44.1K	45,430	0	+45,430	open	—	03-23 14:36
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	114	$43.1K	43,748	0	+43,748	open	—	02-08 01:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$40.8K	40,900	0	+40,900	open	—	03-04 16:34
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	71	$19.8K	20,303	0	+20,303	open	—	02-26 11:54
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	16	$15.8K	15,229	729	+14,500	open	—	02-16 18:16
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	55	$13.0K	13,155	1	+13,154	open	—	01-27 16:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	30	$11.3K	11,608	0	+11,608	open	—	01-30 12:32
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	204	$11.3K	11,930	0	+11,930	open	—	02-14 00:13
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	52	$8.9K	10,231	0	+10,231	open	—	04-16 17:26
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	11	$8.9K	9,008	0	+9,008	open	—	01-30 12:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	60	$8.7K	10,315	10,335	-20	open	—	03-02 19:51
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	138	$8.3K	8,881	0	+8,881	open	—	03-27 17:21
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	33	$7.5K	9,210	0	+9,210	open	—	01-30 12:32
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	12	$7.1K	6,950	250	+6,700	open	—	01-08 00:38
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	2	$6.8K	6,805	0	+6,805	open	—	01-03 15:44
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	23	$6.6K	6,765	0	+6,765	open	—	02-19 14:37
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	121	$6.4K	6,659	0	+6,659	open	—	04-15 22:15
Will the US strike Iran next?	6	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	01-29 22:44
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	79	$5.3K	6,353	0	+6,353	open	—	04-17 22:05
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	95	$5.2K	5,374	0	+5,374	open	—	01-21 13:56
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	222	$4.7K	4,780	0	+4,780	open	—	02-17 17:00
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	39	$4.7K	5,653	0	+5,653	open	—	01-26 12:56
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	76	$4.6K	4,790	0	+4,790	open	—	01-21 12:02
will the us next strike iran on february 21 2026 et	185	$4.4K	4,446	0	+4,446	open	—	02-18 11:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	50	$4.0K	4,167	0	+4,167	open	—	03-18 14:45
will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	119	$3.7K	3,767	0	+3,767	open	—	02-26 13:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 02:21:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0xe2dffc…
08-02 02:12:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xbaac60…
08-01 23:44:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xd640c2…
08-01 19:58:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe9a4e8…
08-01 18:02:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x94d6f2…
08-01 17:17:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x0d4764…
08-01 16:23:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x6bf5ab…
08-01 15:48:41	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x5e3baf…
08-01 14:27:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xf61864…
08-01 13:44:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc29623…
08-01 11:17:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x347c52…
08-01 10:25:48	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x53f7e7…
08-01 09:54:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xa3cbdd…
08-01 09:24:20	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xb1b19c…
08-01 08:04:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xa569e7…
08-01 05:15:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x9f0e83…
07-31 23:38:57	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xc17b48…
07-31 22:25:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x3285b0…
07-31 21:42:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x647afa…
07-31 20:57:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x8092d2…
07-31 20:27:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x9976f1…
07-22 09:12:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xfb3253…
07-22 07:41:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x8c4575…
07-20 09:00:54	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5534da…
07-20 07:49:06	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb47f98…
07-19 21:40:33	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x324d4b…
07-19 20:26:28	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xff768d…
07-18 11:48:00	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x08a847…
07-17 15:50:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xf5eb26…
07-17 14:40:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x9cf3d9…
07-17 10:38:24	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xfd5511…
07-17 10:33:51	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0x128a51…
07-17 10:31:06	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x1c5369…
07-17 10:21:48	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x0974ee…
07-17 10:16:45	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x5f5483…
07-17 10:09:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa7eaa9…
07-17 09:50:18	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x269b3d…
07-17 09:49:33	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xdf1c5a…
07-17 09:48:25	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	18	46¢	$9	0x8d69c2…
07-17 09:42:00	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x8f17c3…
07-17 09:39:33	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x282b3a…
07-17 09:39:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x630918…
07-17 09:36:21	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0xce8d75…
07-17 09:30:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xeeac63…
07-17 09:16:43	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x29b438…
07-17 09:00:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xe1f0df…
07-17 08:56:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x32db0b…
07-17 08:27:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x2285d8…
07-17 08:19:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x3bb906…
07-17 08:18:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x2b64b1…
07-17 08:13:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x59a57e…
07-17 08:09:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xebd673…
07-17 07:45:07	us x china tariff agreement by december 31	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x4bfa78…
07-17 07:36:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0xf62557…
07-17 07:34:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x18f026…
07-17 07:29:31	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x3e1430…
07-17 07:25:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x9b89d2…
07-17 07:20:33	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xb8dcf5…
07-17 07:04:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x483652…
07-17 06:59:07	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	84¢	$3	0xdf3598…
07-17 06:59:07	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xd51a17…
07-17 06:59:07	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xa8c48b…
07-17 06:59:07	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x05e7a1…
07-17 06:40:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc24e91…
07-17 06:32:15	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 31 2026 20260708165455693	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x08fe3d…
07-17 06:07:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	7	93¢	$6	0xb75b4b…
07-17 06:07:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0xa1a615…
07-17 06:05:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0x7bb5d5…
07-17 06:05:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x71298b…
07-17 06:05:24	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x4c250b…
07-17 05:48:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x03f49b…
07-17 05:36:48	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x91cb2a…
07-17 05:36:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x0409bf…
07-17 05:32:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x007845…
07-17 05:16:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x2ebb85…
07-17 05:00:09	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x68beb9…
07-17 04:55:39	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x2123b5…
07-17 04:41:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x926b17…
07-17 04:14:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0x2a4b9b…
07-17 04:14:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	3	77¢	$3	0x88f40d…
07-17 04:11:33	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0x1ba868…
07-17 04:06:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x36f346…
07-17 03:41:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x3a3f5d…
07-17 02:43:19	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0xeb7434…
07-17 02:36:52	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x64d3f5…
07-17 02:06:49	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x977304…
07-17 01:15:26	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x107b51…
07-17 00:53:11	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x17c108…
07-17 00:49:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb7267f…
07-17 00:45:58	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xee459d…
07-17 00:03:34	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xe870b9…
07-17 00:00:31	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc02aab…
07-16 23:25:13	israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xdc8fe9…
07-16 22:28:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4	93¢	$3	0xfd3987…
07-16 22:28:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0xe25043…
07-16 22:01:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x60dd9f…
07-16 21:03:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xc9e3ec…
07-16 20:49:19	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcf83f9…
07-16 20:13:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xefbb79…
07-16 20:08:08	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xc19a70…