Thirsty-Goodnight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.6%

Resolved

Trades

285

lifetime

Volume

$897

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 05-23 00:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

69% 50% +$1

Other

31% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$61	75	75	+0	open	—	02-28 06:51
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	03-25 13:43
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	03-26 20:49
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$22	25	25	+0	open	—	05-23 00:10
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	6	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	04-18 11:18
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-02 09:30
will iran strike uae in march	2	$19	10	10	+0	open	—	03-03 21:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	5	$19	15	10	+5	open	—	04-21 11:19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$19	25	10	+15	open	—	03-08 08:45
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	3	$18	25	25	+0	open	—	02-27 15:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	5	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	04-23 16:57
will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	12	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	04-12 14:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	6	$17	25	24	+1	open	—	04-20 14:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	4	$17	14	9	+5	open	—	04-17 12:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	6	$16	20	15	+5	open	—	04-24 12:40
will iran strike jordan in march 375	3	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	03-07 11:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	6	$14	15	15	+0	open	—	04-17 13:36
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	04-14 18:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	4	$14	10	10	+0	open	—	04-14 23:41
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	2	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	02-28 20:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	4	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	04-17 14:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	5	$12	15	15	+0	open	—	04-07 21:40
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$11	100	100	+0	open	—	03-03 07:49
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$11	15	15	+0	open	—	05-22 23:35
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	3	$10	10	5	+5	open	—	04-12 00:58
will iran strike kuwait in march	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-06 08:50
will iran strike bahrain in march	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-03 07:54
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	5	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 22:21
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	04-16 16:36
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	03-27 15:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 00:11:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0x27260d…
05-23 00:10:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x4fe178…
05-22 23:59:28	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0xda8b34…
05-22 23:49:51	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x730612…
05-22 23:40:25	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x2ccd70…
05-22 23:36:13	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3ed3b3…
05-22 23:35:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x362cb0…
05-22 23:10:58	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x59739e…
05-22 22:58:39	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x1b5812…
05-22 22:20:29	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x1c45e5…
05-22 22:17:18	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xc44fa6…
05-21 21:24:40	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x8c0d6f…
05-16 22:09:19	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xe06718…
05-16 20:03:32	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x9d1e7d…
05-16 20:00:31	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x737441…
05-16 20:00:19	Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xab343a…
05-16 19:58:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xbc1837…
05-11 20:29:08	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x491542…
05-05 06:14:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xabcda5…
05-04 22:53:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x12a504…
05-04 22:52:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x28528c…
04-30 11:49:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x5a0feb…
04-30 11:04:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3299ba…
04-30 11:03:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x65d8ee…
04-27 21:29:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xe9fd4a…
04-27 20:21:52	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x41b319…
04-27 20:21:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xb0072b…
04-26 19:17:46	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x27eab9…
04-26 10:52:04	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xcd1438…
04-26 10:51:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x01db22…
04-24 20:11:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x0b4836…
04-24 20:10:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xd30a38…
04-24 12:42:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x429283…
04-24 12:40:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x14aaa3…
04-24 11:45:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xd1426f…
04-24 11:44:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x335017…
04-24 11:18:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xae8e4a…
04-23 23:19:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfdcbca…
04-23 16:57:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xa5e96f…
04-23 16:57:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb512e3…
04-23 16:57:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xa2e62d…
04-22 16:26:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x57e401…
04-22 09:09:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3cdd3b…
04-22 00:25:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x5052b3…
04-21 18:19:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x8c709f…
04-21 16:42:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x56db60…
04-21 11:19:28	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xfdde90…
04-21 11:18:22	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x66abc8…
04-21 11:17:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x7255b2…
04-21 11:17:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x845a88…
04-21 11:16:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xaf2265…
04-20 14:06:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x736827…
04-20 14:05:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x4efde5…
04-20 12:32:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd038c4…
04-19 13:19:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x72e430…
04-19 13:17:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x85e548…
04-18 11:20:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xbd5e0b…
04-18 11:19:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x54f4d9…
04-18 11:18:32	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xfe9f56…
04-17 19:31:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x73e392…
04-17 18:29:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xbe4517…
04-17 14:14:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x9386d8…
04-17 13:36:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x079301…
04-17 13:24:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x486784…
04-17 13:02:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe98d7f…
04-17 12:05:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x680907…
04-17 12:05:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xc87551…
04-17 12:05:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xefda18…
04-16 16:36:40	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xc031b6…
04-16 15:54:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xda42f3…
04-16 15:51:24	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdae7be…
04-15 19:57:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x997870…
04-15 11:41:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x65ae58…
04-15 00:44:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xc6d0ab…
04-15 00:44:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x35db78…
04-15 00:43:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x113983…
04-14 23:43:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xa16e84…
04-14 23:43:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x791d61…
04-14 23:43:06	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x046a35…
04-14 23:41:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x89bbd2…
04-14 23:41:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xebf9ed…
04-14 23:41:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xd57dcc…
04-14 23:41:28	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x2119dd…
04-14 19:02:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa9af98…
04-14 19:01:54	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x8be6bf…
04-14 18:57:52	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x66a4d5…
04-14 18:57:42	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x3c1327…
04-14 18:45:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x30274b…
04-14 09:27:47	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x80abda…
04-13 17:41:41	will fidesz kdnp win at least 90 seats	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb83578…
04-13 12:17:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x7de7e5…
04-13 11:24:15	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xacf1ab…
04-13 00:59:53	will fidesz kdnp win at least 60 seats	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x10e323…
04-12 14:57:49	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x786011…
04-12 14:22:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 15 2026	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x921f5c…
04-12 14:19:55	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x031c3c…
04-12 14:12:19	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x30023e…
04-12 14:08:05	will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	Yes	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xbca008…
04-12 14:02:37	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xf32dce…
04-12 14:01:39	will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xdb9cfa…