Orange-Cobbler — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

122

lifetime

Volume

$1.40K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$30

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-09

last 06-14 02:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% 0% —

Other

30% 0% $-4

Crypto

19% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No		-27	$-20	77¢	$-21	$-1	05-28 14:50
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No		+200	$10	4¢	$9	$-1	06-11 02:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$100	76	76	+0	open	—	06-08 11:34
bitcoin above 74k on april 16	6	$98	76	75	+1	open	—	04-16 16:02
will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	4	$81	62	62	+0	open	—	06-09 08:15
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	4	$62	41	41	+0	open	—	04-10 07:38
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$61	800	800	+0	open	—	06-07 19:30
bitcoin above 74k on april 14	2	$49	30	29	+1	open	—	04-14 15:57
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	7	$47	30	30	+0	open	—	04-21 21:54
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	5	$44	300	300	+0	open	—	06-07 19:10
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$44	27	27	+0	open	—	06-07 20:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$42	25	25	+0	open	—	06-07 19:09
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$41	34	34	+0	open	—	04-19 20:12
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$40	32	32	+0	open	—	04-16 15:09
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	3	$38	28	28	+0	open	—	04-14 12:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4	$38	220	220	+0	open	—	06-11 12:56
Will Solana reach $100 in April?	2	$38	27	27	+0	open	—	04-16 19:42
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$38	35	35	+0	open	—	04-20 09:07
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	4	$37	33	33	+0	open	—	03-10 23:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$36	25	25	+0	open	—	06-11 20:27
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$33	26	26	+0	open	—	06-07 19:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	3	$31	22	22	+0	open	—	04-19 13:00
bitcoin above 76k on april 21	2	$29	25	24	+1	open	—	04-20 20:54
israel closes its airspace by june 11	4	$28	100	100	+0	open	—	06-09 21:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$23	16	16	+0	open	—	03-31 22:36
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	2	$22	14	14	+0	open	—	03-31 22:43
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$22	32	32	+0	open	—	05-05 18:39
will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	2	$21	16	16	+0	open	—	03-26 13:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2	$20	63	63	+0	No	+$0	05-05 19:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	1	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	04-25 18:55
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	0	27	-27	open	—	05-28 14:50
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	3	$20	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-05 16:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 02:39:18	btc updown 5m 1781404500	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x7d879b…
06-14 02:38:22	btc updown 5m 1781404500	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb004a7…
06-14 02:32:58	btc updown 5m 1781404200	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3061ff…
06-14 02:24:28	btc updown 5m 1781403600	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5561ef…
06-11 20:27:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	59¢	$15	0x3ea057…
06-11 12:56:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	220	9¢	$19	0xea3267…
06-11 12:49:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	90	9¢	$8	0x7ce6f6…
06-11 12:49:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x8f9218…
06-11 12:48:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	120	8¢	$10	0xdf9218…
06-11 09:42:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0x50955d…
06-11 08:29:57	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0x6881aa…
06-11 02:35:30	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	195	5¢	$10	0xbda0f1…
06-11 02:20:57	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x1062db…
06-11 01:54:42	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x5ac469…
06-11 00:23:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x690aa6…
06-10 16:32:18	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0xa2eafd…
06-10 16:31:19	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x5b4ea2…
06-10 16:29:12	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xe1bde2…
06-10 16:28:31	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x4de194…
06-10 16:28:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x7147f2…
06-10 16:28:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x10f1c5…
06-10 16:25:19	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x888602…
06-09 21:49:22	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	SELL	92	14¢	$13	0x143c53…
06-09 21:48:34	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x228c25…
06-09 21:36:28	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	SELL	60	14¢	$8	0xf9c02b…
06-09 17:06:37	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x8542bc…
06-09 17:04:37	israel closes its airspace by june 11	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x3ebd85…
06-09 17:04:28	israel closes its airspace by june 13	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x61bad2…
06-09 08:15:28	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x76222a…
06-08 19:14:37	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x24ece2…
06-08 16:39:48	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	SELL	45	81¢	$36	0xb97913…
06-08 11:34:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	26	81¢	$21	0xe65e2f…
06-08 11:31:15	will any flight depart from imam khomeini international airport by june 8 20260607232624532	Yes	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0xfb6f7f…
06-08 11:21:19	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x1d85e4…
06-07 20:53:45	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	27	89¢	$24	0x63a5ff…
06-07 20:05:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	31	38¢	$12	0x2d98fe…
06-07 20:02:45	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x30d4ec…
06-07 19:40:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x2b4db7…
06-07 19:32:46	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xbb2b7d…
06-07 19:30:39	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	4¢	$32	0x2dc20f…
06-07 19:18:12	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xaaf952…
06-07 19:15:33	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	737	4¢	$27	0xa92d6f…
06-07 19:13:31	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	4¢	$2	0x5cfd88…
06-07 19:10:01	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	7¢	$4	0xcb7431…
06-07 19:09:57	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	26	68¢	$18	0x2bc1ef…
06-07 19:09:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	25	89¢	$22	0xda2652…
06-04 01:11:37	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	BUY	38	7¢	$3	0x2dc696…
06-03 06:47:20	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	7¢	$1	0xbd22dd…
06-01 22:00:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x89645b…
06-01 21:42:13	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0x5cd225…
06-01 21:25:48	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	SELL	243	8¢	$19	0x46a256…
06-01 00:18:44	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	BUY	243	7¢	$17	0x56664b…
05-28 14:50:28	Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0x7672f0…
05-11 22:37:58	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	7¢	$8	0x3c9af4…
05-10 23:39:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	9¢	$10	0x25fcef…
05-05 19:31:06	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	63	16¢	$10	0xa95ba3…
05-05 18:58:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0x02862a…
05-05 18:39:56	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	32	37¢	$12	0xa7546c…
05-05 16:19:54	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	90	10¢	$9	0x3363c3…
05-05 16:17:46	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xe143db…
05-05 10:16:36	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	32¢	$10	0x328728…
05-05 10:16:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x27f716…
04-25 18:55:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	30	67¢	$20	0x8c35f2…
04-21 21:54:44	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x13d6f9…
04-20 20:54:58	bitcoin above 76k on april 21	Yes	SELL	24	58¢	$14	0xb3c683…
04-20 19:03:02	bitcoin above 76k on april 21	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xf989f4…
04-20 14:07:14	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x15a166…
04-20 13:40:12	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$0	0x633c3b…
04-20 13:40:00	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x8781b6…
04-20 10:54:50	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xb64f37…
04-20 10:46:12	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x00e4a6…
04-20 10:46:06	Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xa7eb20…
04-20 09:07:54	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	SELL	35	50¢	$18	0xef5bed…
04-19 20:12:18	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	34	61¢	$21	0x08ad2f…
04-19 13:11:18	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xb6b050…
04-19 13:00:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	SELL	22	75¢	$16	0xccdc74…
04-16 19:42:40	Will Solana reach $100 in April?	No	SELL	27	64¢	$17	0xb9b7e5…
04-16 16:54:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	21	67¢	$14	0xc0efed…
04-16 16:53:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x5a21f1…
04-16 16:06:54	Will Solana reach $100 in April?	No	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0xefdf35…
04-16 16:02:18	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x9a12cf…
04-16 15:10:08	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x48930a…
04-16 15:09:20	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	32	61¢	$20	0xde4c53…
04-16 15:08:54	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	No	SELL	27	31¢	$8	0xf6f936…
04-16 14:21:22	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	No	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x22ad64…
04-16 14:21:06	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	Yes	SELL	24	26¢	$6	0x9dc9b8…
04-16 12:06:50	bitcoin above 74k on april 16	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x8fa0af…
04-15 08:29:54	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	29	60¢	$17	0xa22b47…
04-15 08:27:06	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xcbfcc9…
04-14 15:57:15	bitcoin above 74k on april 14	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x85b0bf…
04-14 12:14:09	bitcoin above 74k on april 14	Yes	BUY	30	68¢	$20	0x8871b5…
04-14 12:06:41	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	28	64¢	$18	0x7c6c83…
04-12 12:37:29	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	23	72¢	$16	0x0be0b9…
04-12 12:34:21	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x035981…
04-10 07:38:29	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x9def97…
04-09 13:47:09	Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x50868b…
03-31 22:51:13	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xfbe1fd…
03-31 22:46:33	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x0d2f0f…
03-31 22:43:07	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	No	SELL	14	90¢	$12	0x2d4bb4…
03-31 22:36:35	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	16	79¢	$13	0x503fff…