Menacing-Pard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

21.1%

Resolved

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$388

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 07-02 13:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 100% +$1

Other

11% — —

Politics

10% 0% $-15

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 68 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No		+3	$2	80¢	$2	+$0	07-02 13:55
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		+1	$1	98¢	$1	+$0	06-04 08:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	04-06 09:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	$-10	05-01 12:58
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-15 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	9	$9	15	0	+15	open	—	05-24 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	8	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	05-24 17:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	4	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-24 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	3	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	3	$7	11	0	+11	open	—	05-25 11:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	3	$7	12	0	+12	open	—	05-25 14:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	3	$7	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 11:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	3	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	05-24 16:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	7	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	05-25 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	05-25 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$6	6	5	+1	open	—	05-29 09:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	3	$6	34	33	+1	open	—	05-28 18:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	$-5	05-06 09:41
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 09:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-14 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	5	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-24 11:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-04 12:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	5	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-24 17:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	5	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-25 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$5	9	9	+0	open	—	05-28 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	4	$5	7	7	+0	open	—	05-28 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$4	8	7	+1	open	—	06-01 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	4	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	05-23 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	4	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	05-24 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	4	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	05-23 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	4	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	05-23 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	4	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	05-24 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 13:55:47	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x7e9c2d…
07-02 13:51:31	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x9d45cc…
07-01 07:33:32	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x179509…
07-01 07:29:04	will russia capture toretske by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xb63d23…
07-01 07:28:13	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x09c4f6…
06-19 07:33:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcce30c…
06-11 12:08:24	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x67c653…
06-10 08:28:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x214b3d…
06-04 08:08:31	Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf7c2f7…
06-04 08:04:10	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x99ba9d…
06-02 16:37:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xfbbdf8…
06-02 09:23:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x0a3e5d…
06-01 16:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc12e2f…
06-01 16:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x61722f…
06-01 16:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x919bb7…
06-01 16:36:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7e0a46…
06-01 16:28:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x15e253…
06-01 16:23:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd51d22…
06-01 13:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x96982a…
06-01 13:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x686b8a…
06-01 13:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x6ded14…
06-01 13:49:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8a2cfd…
06-01 13:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	11	10¢	$1	0x4f9fb9…
06-01 13:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfa38e0…
06-01 13:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xeb8596…
06-01 13:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x69b468…
06-01 13:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5fc8ed…
06-01 13:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x93d10e…
06-01 13:28:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0xe39d31…
06-01 13:23:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x8d961f…
06-01 09:13:48	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x03fa0e…
06-01 09:11:12	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x54e03d…
06-01 09:11:03	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x52e552…
05-30 10:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0x449f5c…
05-30 10:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xea0047…
05-30 10:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x990f5a…
05-30 10:05:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x68afd8…
05-30 09:56:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x2e5de7…
05-29 09:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x67085c…
05-29 09:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x72a5d7…
05-29 09:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9d354c…
05-29 09:25:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc65e85…
05-29 09:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa65bcf…
05-29 08:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb78fff…
05-28 21:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x33bb29…
05-28 21:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc5926b…
05-28 21:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x7967ff…
05-28 21:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x138a82…
05-28 21:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xbf6b26…
05-28 21:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb50294…
05-28 21:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd69976…
05-28 21:28:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb71bd2…
05-28 21:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x4f3c97…
05-28 21:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8973c9…
05-28 19:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0x5aff4b…
05-28 19:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x02f13d…
05-28 19:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x90ea15…
05-28 19:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaee0f1…
05-28 19:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x747b69…
05-28 19:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x42e57a…
05-28 19:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe60e1a…
05-28 19:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x9d27aa…
05-28 19:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd4910a…
05-28 19:01:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xaed876…
05-28 18:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xabdc5c…
05-28 18:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x23afc3…
05-28 18:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x2c4152…
05-28 18:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x8e69c8…
05-28 18:45:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x1de8de…
05-28 18:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x5a51ad…
05-28 18:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc3140a…
05-28 18:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa8bac4…
05-28 18:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0xa64c79…
05-28 18:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xee41ca…
05-28 18:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x53cb2c…
05-28 18:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x36c094…
05-28 18:23:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	9	39¢	$4	0x280ef5…
05-28 18:22:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe2bcd1…
05-28 18:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6979b0…
05-28 18:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	7	26¢	$2	0xf2e204…
05-28 18:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb31a00…
05-28 15:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0xa72c02…
05-28 15:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x0018f1…
05-28 15:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xdc9b20…
05-28 15:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0d3288…
05-28 15:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x087fae…
05-28 15:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe984cc…
05-28 15:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x190e08…
05-28 15:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x52a47c…
05-28 15:07:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x4604c4…
05-28 15:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xdb98bb…
05-28 15:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x194c9b…
05-28 15:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x6ee147…
05-28 14:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x102f51…
05-26 09:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf44f19…
05-26 09:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x7f45f2…
05-26 09:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x5088fc…
05-25 18:06:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe54859…
05-25 18:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1d1a94…
05-25 18:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x0e436a…