Modest-Incarnation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

Trades

278

lifetime

Volume

$9.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 05-06 14:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 78% +$24

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 122 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$309	163	163	+0	open	—	05-01 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$216	114	114	+0	Up	+$0	05-06 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	2	$214	109	109	+0	open	—	05-01 13:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	2	$213	110	110	+0	Up	$-1	05-06 14:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	2	$192	101	101	+0	open	—	05-01 11:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	05-01 12:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	2	$189	96	96	+0	Up	$-1	05-05 17:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$166	85	85	+0	open	—	05-02 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	2	$162	83	83	+0	open	—	04-30 07:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$161	82	82	+0	open	—	05-01 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	2	$158	84	84	+0	open	—	05-02 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	2	$151	77	77	+0	open	—	05-01 14:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	2	$147	77	77	+0	open	—	05-01 15:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	3	$119	134	46	+89	open	—	05-04 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	3	$115	150	54	+96	Down	+$7	05-05 12:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	3	$108	95	16	+79	open	—	05-02 07:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	3	$108	111	10	+101	open	—	05-01 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	3	$104	106	9	+97	open	—	05-01 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$104	105	0	+105	open	—	05-01 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	1	$103	107	0	+107	open	—	04-29 15:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$101	102	0	+102	Up	+$1	05-06 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$101	102	0	+102	Up	+$1	05-06 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$101	105	0	+105	Up	+$4	05-06 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$101	103	0	+103	open	—	04-29 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	04-29 13:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	04-29 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$99	100	0	+100	open	—	05-01 13:02
will ethereum dip to 1700 april 13 19	1	$99	99	0	+99	open	—	04-17 07:47
will bitcoin reach 80k february 16 22	1	$98	98	0	+98	open	—	02-20 16:59
will ethereum dip to 2600 january 12 18	1	$98	98	0	+98	open	—	01-16 10:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 14:28:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	110	96¢	$106	0xaca6a7…
05-06 14:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x33f7bd…
05-06 09:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	114	95¢	$108	0xa05259…
05-06 09:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	114	95¢	$108	0xf837d3…
05-06 08:33:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x031935…
05-06 06:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x4aeb56…
05-06 05:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	105	96¢	$101	0xed0292…
05-05 18:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x117682…
05-05 18:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	99	96¢	$95	0xc67b83…
05-05 17:33:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x40a375…
05-05 17:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	96	98¢	$94	0x85de2c…
05-05 17:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0xca4724…
05-05 12:56:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	26	21¢	$5	0x409e12…
05-05 12:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	26	27¢	$7	0x9f517c…
05-05 12:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x2c5c99…
05-05 12:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	54	24¢	$13	0xf2d9da…
05-05 12:46:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x69d417…
05-05 12:26:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	91	93¢	$85	0x99908c…
05-05 10:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	89	96¢	$85	0xd6d09e…
05-05 10:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0x20632c…
05-05 10:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	41	44¢	$18	0x1e5884…
05-05 10:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0x3f6a2a…
05-05 10:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	94	98¢	$92	0x6086c9…
05-05 09:36:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0xae7966…
05-05 09:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x79c476…
05-05 09:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	95	96¢	$92	0xec26d3…
05-05 04:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0xa6f4a9…
05-04 18:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x164134…
05-04 18:38:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0x3c35fd…
05-04 18:36:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	46	40¢	$18	0x9a76ef…
05-04 18:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0xb3873d…
05-04 18:32:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	35	53¢	$19	0x5c078c…
05-04 18:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xbdabb1…
05-04 18:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	SELL	65	18¢	$12	0x6fa91e…
05-04 18:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0xc8d579…
05-04 18:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	12	13¢	$2	0xe21da9…
05-04 18:07:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xbf13f5…
05-04 18:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x2c19f7…
05-04 18:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x252e85…
05-04 18:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	54	23¢	$12	0x70be95…
05-04 18:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	54	28¢	$15	0xc2ff24…
05-04 17:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0xcd51d8…
05-04 17:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	17	31¢	$5	0x3bf71d…
05-04 17:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x1e7e46…
05-04 17:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	42	48¢	$20	0x34a106…
05-04 17:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x853b14…
05-04 17:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	56	32¢	$18	0xe58fe1…
05-04 17:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x3b47af…
05-04 17:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0xba35c7…
05-04 16:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x9e4ee4…
05-04 16:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x115790…
05-04 16:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x62ce01…
05-04 16:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x46a09d…
05-04 16:47:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x3fd169…
05-04 16:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0xee2daa…
05-04 16:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc030e7…
05-04 16:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x340042…
05-04 16:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x359944…
05-04 16:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0xea1b29…
05-04 14:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x8764b5…
05-04 09:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0xbe41c8…
05-04 07:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x8f1366…
05-03 12:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xb2f836…
05-03 12:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x9c0b89…
05-03 12:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x73cd82…
05-03 11:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	83	99¢	$82	0xb81c59…
05-03 09:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	82	100¢	$82	0x30ac66…
05-02 19:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	85	98¢	$84	0x3e83eb…
05-02 19:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	85	96¢	$82	0xf8bb3f…
05-02 18:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	84	97¢	$81	0x74a98a…
05-02 18:53:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	84	92¢	$77	0x33e882…
05-02 18:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x460f6c…
05-02 18:33:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x18b8de…
05-02 18:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x2c4ba9…
05-02 14:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	74	96¢	$71	0xb12f6f…
05-02 14:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x9adc0c…
05-02 13:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	72	98¢	$71	0x0a455b…
05-02 09:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	49	71¢	$35	0xc25b08…
05-02 09:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x1f6e3e…
05-02 08:54:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xb00180…
05-02 08:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xa24739…
05-02 08:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x5b2684…
05-02 08:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0x29d2e8…
05-02 07:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x6f73ae…
05-02 07:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0x7dd6fc…
05-02 07:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	16	96¢	$16	0xef52ba…
05-02 07:32:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0xc68b93…
05-02 07:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xb89ece…
05-02 06:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x8508e9…
05-02 06:48:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x3c09af…
05-02 06:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x7ac6a6…
05-02 06:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0xd76fa6…
05-02 05:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	8	90¢	$8	0xf2d3a1…
05-02 05:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x19aba9…
05-02 05:48:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	25	79¢	$19	0xe59bda…
05-02 05:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xc2af09…
05-02 05:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xd64549…
05-02 05:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0xa19f65…
05-01 17:32:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0xa9bb12…
05-01 17:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xffc7fd…