Scary-Ground — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

24.2%

Resolved

Trades

205

lifetime

Volume

$8.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 05-22 01:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

63% — —

Politics

31% 25% $-1

Sports

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	7	$337	177	177	+0	No	$-1	05-06 22:19
will adam scott win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$322	163	163	+0	open	—	04-04 05:25
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$321	170	170	+0	open	—	04-07 17:30
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$318	163	163	+0	open	—	04-09 18:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	4	$223	144	85	+59	open	—	05-13 14:48
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	4	$192	274	98	+176	open	—	05-12 09:21
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	5	$189	171	171	+0	open	—	04-30 19:47
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$186	94	94	+0	open	—	04-26 17:20
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	5	$183	184	184	+0	open	—	04-25 08:39
new stranger things episode released by april 30	3	$177	90	90	+0	open	—	03-20 01:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	4	$175	233	233	+0	No	$-0	05-08 05:45
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$175	94	94	+0	open	—	04-19 00:10
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$173	90	90	+0	open	—	04-14 00:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	2	$172	88	88	+0	open	—	04-22 23:56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$170	86	86	+0	open	—	04-29 14:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$170	87	87	+0	open	—	04-27 05:02
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	2	$168	91	91	+0	open	—	03-30 15:56
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1200 1239	2	$168	85	85	+0	open	—	03-27 16:22
will fidesz kdnp win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 9	2	$168	86	86	+0	open	—	04-11 10:37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	4	$167	86	86	+0	open	—	04-26 09:21
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	2	$167	85	85	+0	open	—	03-28 06:16
will iran strike cyprus in march	2	$167	85	85	+0	open	—	03-28 15:13
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$167	88	88	+0	open	—	03-26 15:51
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$167	86	86	+0	open	—	03-27 02:37
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$167	86	86	+0	open	—	04-09 00:56
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$167	87	87	+0	open	—	04-08 11:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$166	86	86	+0	No	+$1	05-10 11:41
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 400 419	2	$164	87	87	+0	open	—	03-24 06:40
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	7	$163	296	296	+0	open	—	04-04 00:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$161	86	86	+0	open	—	04-20 12:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-22 01:36:35	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	No	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0xe2a909…
05-22 01:36:35	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0xcdde8d…
05-22 01:36:35	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x245740…
05-19 12:17:31	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	43	95¢	$41	0xe88d1f…
05-19 05:23:58	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	79	5¢	$4	0x1b00e5…
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0xe44e2f…
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x7aa10a…
05-18 22:25:41	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x39428d…
05-13 14:48:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0xd3a34b…
05-13 14:47:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x18bd96…
05-13 06:37:45	Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x727bb3…
05-13 03:46:39	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	85	97¢	$83	0xc42f75…
05-13 00:44:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$82	0x932bbf…
05-12 09:21:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	118	5¢	$6	0xcf4769…
05-12 09:21:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0x14fd8b…
05-12 03:36:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0x3c699f…
05-12 03:36:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	3¢	$5	0xacf9f3…
05-12 01:31:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0xf367a7…
05-12 01:31:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	3¢	$4	0x32c10f…
05-11 23:27:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	3¢	$4	0x1faa51…
05-11 19:05:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	4¢	$6	0x466933…
05-11 06:59:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	98	94¢	$92	0x63c8ca…
05-11 05:34:20	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	98	93¢	$92	0xb63fda…
05-10 11:41:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0x01fdfb…
05-10 05:17:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	86	96¢	$83	0xaa32ba…
05-08 19:32:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$2	0x0c9444…
05-08 18:27:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$2	0xdde980…
05-08 18:27:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x9e2714…
05-08 10:17:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x828a4a…
05-08 05:45:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	147	3¢	$4	0x4aca23…
05-08 02:53:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	3¢	$4	0xefba44…
05-07 22:54:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0xc37fea…
05-07 19:37:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	86	97¢	$84	0x6cfe78…
05-06 22:19:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x4acb4e…
05-06 22:19:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	55	94¢	$52	0x0c25e2…
05-06 21:09:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	88	95¢	$83	0x8ea028…
05-03 13:15:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x91f152…
05-03 13:15:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0x1bea8c…
05-03 09:37:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0xd45165…
05-03 09:37:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x0998da…
04-30 19:47:38	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0xe59c26…
04-30 18:35:04	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xa55d06…
04-30 09:00:40	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$1	0x5d2b52…
04-30 07:47:20	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xb92067…
04-30 07:47:20	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$1	0x584e72…
04-29 14:14:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x6bbef2…
04-29 10:08:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	86	99¢	$85	0x4e1117…
04-27 05:02:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$85	0xcec257…
04-27 03:07:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	87	98¢	$85	0x51a0fa…
04-26 17:20:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x14428c…
04-26 15:01:36	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0xca381c…
04-26 09:21:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x7c144f…
04-26 09:21:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x26350f…
04-26 09:21:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$28	0x259081…
04-26 03:39:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	86	96¢	$83	0xeda992…
04-25 16:01:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$5	0xbc8c45…
04-25 16:01:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	67	4¢	$3	0x37495e…
04-25 13:14:48	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	183	4¢	$7	0xfe1c9a…
04-25 08:39:20	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$1	0x8d3ac9…
04-25 08:28:34	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	1¢	$0	0x28c7f4…
04-25 05:33:26	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x182ed8…
04-25 05:25:40	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	92	98¢	$91	0x26142a…
04-25 02:42:54	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	92	98¢	$90	0xedb43e…
04-23 11:03:56	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	9¢	$8	0xc6efb4…
04-23 08:35:06	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	6¢	$5	0xc60a98…
04-22 23:56:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	SELL	88	98¢	$86	0x0c3656…
04-22 20:47:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	88	97¢	$86	0xc236f5…
04-22 12:34:20	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x1e7e8f…
04-22 09:46:52	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0xcf9533…
04-22 09:46:52	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x49ea9c…
04-22 03:00:08	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	1¢	$2	0xb3a0d7…
04-22 01:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0xe8c27c…
04-22 01:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	1¢	$1	0x959187…
04-22 01:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0x3991ee…
04-21 22:10:38	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x124027…
04-21 19:09:52	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xb32df6…
04-21 11:32:12	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	43	87¢	$37	0x2eb65f…
04-21 11:32:12	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	46	87¢	$40	0x1ebec7…
04-21 07:22:14	Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	89	90¢	$80	0x15afe8…
04-21 06:09:28	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	275	5¢	$13	0x23cdc4…
04-21 02:36:04	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	275	5¢	$13	0x7ce811…
04-20 20:02:54	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	178	3¢	$5	0x709519…
04-20 18:10:04	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	3¢	$2	0xa7c3a4…
04-20 18:10:04	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	3¢	$2	0xa6ae10…
04-20 18:10:04	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	3¢	$1	0x646000…
04-20 12:18:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	86	93¢	$80	0xe89e63…
04-20 09:49:14	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	86	94¢	$80	0x3610b5…
04-20 05:50:28	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	81	99¢	$80	0xea92a5…
04-20 01:47:00	Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0x09c867…
04-19 00:10:06	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	94	94¢	$88	0xde6ed4…
04-18 22:39:20	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	94	93¢	$87	0xb5e628…
04-18 18:28:36	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$1	0x3d8d29…
04-18 12:43:14	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	SELL	149	2¢	$3	0x6ec4d7…
04-18 10:52:24	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	BUY	173	2¢	$4	0xa26413…
04-16 16:18:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	SELL	177	2¢	$3	0x95fff4…
04-16 14:24:00	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	177	2¢	$3	0xf68a0a…
04-14 06:13:55	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x606e1a…
04-14 06:13:53	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	SELL	63	1¢	$1	0xb2d812…
04-14 03:28:31	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	Yes	BUY	129	1¢	$2	0xcc573e…
04-14 00:40:13	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	SELL	90	96¢	$87	0x44ef6b…