Velvety-Stair — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

100

lifetime

Volume

$405

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-28

last 06-26 15:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-5

Politics

37% 0% $-13

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Yes		-11	$-0	5¢	$-1	$-0	05-28 08:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	2	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	03-27 19:08
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$20	38	38	+0	open	—	03-01 12:18
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$19	28	0	+28	open	—	03-30 14:05
rusixnat ita eng 2026 03 07 ita	2	$18	14	14	+0	open	—	03-07 18:41
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	3	$15	56	16	+40	No	$-11	04-22 14:36
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	1	$12	32	0	+32	open	—	04-01 14:31
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	1	$11	30	0	+30	open	—	03-01 21:07
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	2	$10	20	20	+0	open	—	03-08 11:47
will trump say mission accomplished during address to the nation	1	$10	34	0	+34	open	—	04-01 14:32
highest temperature in london on march 28 2026 10c	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	03-27 19:09
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	1	$10	21	0	+21	open	—	03-31 18:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$10	24	0	+24	open	—	03-30 14:09
us strike on somalia by march 7	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	02-28 15:45
atp gill cadenas 2026 03 30	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	03-30 14:17
trump approval up or down this week 678	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	03-27 19:11
rusixnat sco fra 2026 03 07 sco	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	03-07 16:06
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	2	$8	9	9	+0	open	—	05-14 18:03
Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30?	1	$8	220	0	+220	open	—	04-26 18:40
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$7	148	148	+0	open	—	03-04 23:11
will nvidia nvda be the top performing magnificent 7 company during the week of march 2	2	$7	13	13	+0	open	—	03-01 00:48
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?	1	$6	100	0	+100	open	—	05-28 08:20
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	03-01 12:20
efa ful sot 2026 03 07 draw	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	03-08 13:39
will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	2	$6	10	10	+0	open	—	03-02 17:23
highest temperature in london on march 29 2026 10c	1	$5	21	0	+21	open	—	03-27 19:10
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils?	1	$5	62	0	+62	No	$-5	04-20 14:44
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	1	$5	174	0	+174	open	—	02-28 20:43
fif grc par 2026 03 27 grc	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-27 19:04
will gas hit high 4pt50 by march 31	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	03-10 14:42
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	03-17 18:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-26 15:32:04	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xec7ae2…
05-28 08:20:18	Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x40a339…
05-28 08:16:55	UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x6d92aa…
05-17 17:13:20	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0x07651b…
05-14 18:03:04	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	SELL	9	58¢	$5	0x56dc4b…
05-11 10:47:26	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0x592c0f…
05-05 12:17:02	Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xc23232…
05-05 12:16:14	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x42a78a…
05-04 16:02:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xdbdcf4…
04-28 17:05:02	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0x03a358…
04-26 18:40:06	Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30?	Yes	BUY	220	4¢	$8	0xe0d29a…
04-24 15:26:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0xb4a80e…
04-23 17:21:56	Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xeaacda…
04-23 13:50:28	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xb95b01…
04-22 14:36:00	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x54d952…
04-21 11:50:00	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x0c2ad2…
04-20 14:44:40	Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x383d84…
04-12 18:35:57	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$1	0xbe6535…
04-11 13:38:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x2407d8…
04-11 13:37:43	Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x8caf9e…
04-09 16:56:45	will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xafb88d…
04-09 16:56:07	Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% in April?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xdfd403…
04-09 16:54:45	Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x5c4b8d…
04-07 12:42:59	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x1835f9…
04-07 12:41:37	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0x3eb2f0…
04-06 16:19:59	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0x5a5167…
04-06 10:49:23	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 liv1	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x2f425a…
04-01 14:32:17	will trump say mission accomplished during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0xb80676…
04-01 14:31:05	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	32	37¢	$12	0x49def1…
03-31 18:24:09	Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xfb4c46…
03-30 14:17:43	atp ajdukov neumaye 2026 03 30	Lukas Neumayer	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xee5b7b…
03-30 14:17:07	atp gill cadenas 2026 03 30	Felix Gill	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x100a5c…
03-30 14:16:25	Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x93d1a8…
03-30 14:09:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x368c6b…
03-30 14:08:13	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x962dbc…
03-30 14:05:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xb1b869…
03-27 19:20:33	will ethereum dip to 1800 march 23 29	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x086ca9…
03-27 19:20:03	will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x0f3ecc…
03-27 19:15:23	val ep1 ucam 2026 03 27	UCAM Esports Club	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x798be4…
03-27 19:13:51	dota2 lynx z10 2026 03 27	Team Lynx	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe758cb…
03-27 19:13:33	dota2 ts8 xtreme 2026 03 27	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x387631…
03-27 19:13:07	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x9fa838…
03-27 19:11:51	trump approval up or down this week 678	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x164487…
03-27 19:10:17	highest temperature in london on march 29 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xba9f9d…
03-27 19:09:47	highest temperature in london on march 28 2026 10c	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xbeaad7…
03-27 19:08:53	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x3dc772…
03-27 19:07:29	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x37cf68…
03-27 19:04:31	fif grc par 2026 03 27 grc	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xdc90aa…
03-27 18:57:09	fif lby nig 2026 03 27 draw	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb3033c…
03-21 15:43:55	epl lee bre 2026 03 21 lee	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x984822…
03-21 15:43:41	epl eve che 2026 03 21 che	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x46218c…
03-21 15:43:09	epl ful bur 2026 03 21 draw	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf6ac7c…
03-18 14:25:47	will jd vance say crazy during michigan visit 394	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x84a9a0…
03-18 14:25:15	will jd vance say epic fury during michigan visit 196	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x639846…
03-18 14:25:03	will jd vance say hormuz during michigan visit 119	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x91e4d5…
03-17 18:43:47	will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xda1061…
03-12 13:35:29	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0xd0e336…
03-12 13:35:17	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0xca5a6f…
03-10 14:51:45	will i lied to you sinners win best original song at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe401b8…
03-10 14:50:41	will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xa06f70…
03-10 14:49:25	will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbe9d80…
03-10 14:47:43	will starmer say ai during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb77d63…
03-10 14:47:35	will starmer say intervene during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x414514…
03-10 14:46:17	will jensen huang say data center at the nvidia gtc keynote	No	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x0e17f8…
03-10 14:45:45	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x1921d1…
03-10 14:43:25	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xae2f0b…
03-10 14:42:05	will gas hit high 4pt50 by march 31	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x848029…
03-10 14:38:43	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x0d9658…
03-10 14:36:47	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x1b72a2…
03-10 14:36:39	Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x759654…
03-10 10:31:01	rusixnat ire sco 2026 03 14 sco	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xad8f8e…
03-09 14:07:21	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xb196c7…
03-08 13:39:19	efa ful sot 2026 03 07 draw	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x3aff78…
03-08 11:47:21	iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x37bdc0…
03-08 09:54:21	masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	Yes	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x3bc948…
03-07 18:41:53	rusixnat ita eng 2026 03 07 ita	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x2e2347…
03-07 16:08:17	rusixnat ita eng 2026 03 07 ita	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x766adc…
03-07 16:06:57	rusixnat sco fra 2026 03 07 sco	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc77f2e…
03-04 23:11:45	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	148	1¢	$1	0x4e5a16…
03-04 23:10:19	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x332e07…
03-02 20:16:23	iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2ed171…
03-02 17:23:55	iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xdd418c…
03-02 17:23:41	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x333d62…
03-01 21:07:35	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	BUY	30	38¢	$11	0xba9de8…
03-01 12:22:01	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x9c6221…
03-01 12:20:13	Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x39adff…
03-01 12:18:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	38	25¢	$10	0x468047…
03-01 03:50:19	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6b9742…
03-01 03:44:35	will a 10 us blanket tariff be in effect on march 31	No	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0xc42ff7…
03-01 03:43:23	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x252011…
03-01 03:40:31	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xee6f2b…
03-01 03:38:35	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x110a3a…
03-01 03:32:19	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0x01dde8…
03-01 00:48:21	will nvidia nvda be the top performing magnificent 7 company during the week of march 2	Yes	SELL	13	17¢	$2	0xa3efb4…
03-01 00:48:03	us seizes an iran linked oil tanker by march 7	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x78eca2…
02-28 20:43:41	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	Yes	BUY	174	3¢	$5	0xb080d5…
02-28 18:00:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	38	27¢	$10	0xd0793c…
02-28 15:45:59	will nvidia nvda be the top performing magnificent 7 company during the week of march 2	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x5daeb1…
02-28 15:45:01	us strike on somalia by march 7	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x7c32f7…
02-28 15:44:13	Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xa5cb9d…