Hard-Focus — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$627

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.0%

Resolved (90d)

395

Trades (90d)

801

5,969 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.9K

$194.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 10-26 23:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 105 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 33% -$2,158

Other

30% 35% -$4,334

Politics

0% 100% +$143

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 140 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fif sen per 2026 03 28 sen	2	$3.8K	2,298	2,298	+0	Yes	+$787	03-28 17:51
ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	2	$3.7K	2,381	2,381	+0	Yes	+$671	03-18 19:04
arg new gye 2026 03 21 new	3	$3.3K	2,382	2,382	+0	Yes	+$1,479	03-21 23:02
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-13 12:00 UTC	3	$2.7K	2,195	2,170	+25	Down	+$1,367	03-13 15:55
bitcoin up or down march 19 2026 11am et	4	$2.6K	3,615	1,837	+1,778	Down	+$1,012	03-19 15:46
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-13 16:00 UTC	7	$2.2K	2,626	1,654	+972	Down	+$726	03-13 18:15
fif mex prt 2026 03 28 prt	1	$2.0K	3,846	0	+3,846	No	-$2,000	03-28 17:55
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	2	$1.9K	1,538	1,538	+0	Yes	+$1,129	03-11 21:36
fif grc par 2026 03 27 par	3	$1.8K	1,417	1,417	+0	Yes	+$1,028	03-27 21:56
uef bih ita 2026 03 31 ita	1	$1.8K	2,638	0	+2,638	No	-$1,794	03-31 17:50
uef tur rom 2026 03 26 tur	2	$1.7K	1,100	1,100	+0	Yes	+$183	03-26 18:38
bitcoin up or down march 13 12pm et	9	$1.6K	3,167	1,308	+1,859	Up	+$407	03-13 16:53
bitcoin up or down march 16 2026 2pm et	5	$1.5K	1,401	1,394	+7	Down	+$1,045	03-16 19:04
atp michels sinner 2026 03 24	2	$1.5K	817	817	+0	Jannik Sinner	+$136	03-24 22:48
bitcoin up or down march 14 8am et	4	$1.3K	1,340	1,335	+4	Up	+$998	03-14 13:06
ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	2	$1.3K	1,471	1,471	+0	Yes	+$779	03-17 20:39
uef pol alb 2026 03 26 pol	2	$1.3K	800	800	+0	Yes	+$312	03-26 21:43
fif col hrv 2026 03 26 col	3	$1.2K	1,304	1,304	+0	No	-$13	03-26 22:26
bitcoin up or down march 19 2026 7am et	8	$1.1K	4,774	813	+3,961	Down	-$124	03-19 11:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 00:15 UTC	2	$1.1K	1,134	1,133	+2	Up	+$898	03-19 00:29
sud gre rie 2026 04 14 gre	10	$1.1K	799	785	+14	Yes	+$451	04-14 23:59
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-16 12:00 UTC	4	$1.1K	964	952	+12	Down	+$415	03-16 15:50
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	2	$959	2,398	0	+2,398	No	-$959	05-30 11:09
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-09-12?	3	$958	679	679	+0	Yes	+$291	09-12 21:47
bitcoin up or down march 14 9am et	5	$942	3,023	1,499	+1,525	Up	-$458	03-14 13:45
bitcoin up or down march 14 11am et	3	$870	733	729	+4	Down	+$591	03-14 18:14
fif nor che 2026 03 31 nor	2	$802	990	990	+0	No	-$188	03-31 17:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 20:00 UTC	2	$755	1,726	0	+1,726	Up	+$971	03-19 20:12
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-19 16:00 UTC	3	$738	2,744	0	+2,744	Up	-$738	03-19 18:28
lib cp cor 2026 04 09 cor	2	$729	541	530	+11	Yes	+$339	04-10 01:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	53	90¢	$48	0x81cc47…
10-26 22:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0xd6cfcc…
10-26 22:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0xd10cb0…
10-26 22:30:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0x32a2de…
10-26 21:05:15	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x0a6c58…
10-26 21:05:02	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xdc445a…
10-26 21:00:56	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	93	87¢	$81	0x9439e6…
10-26 20:48:26	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xae4eeb…
10-26 20:38:02	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	46	39¢	$18	0x88eda1…
10-26 20:34:32	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0x854828…
10-26 20:34:20	CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	52	25¢	$13	0x3b6d0d…
10-26 19:54:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xdd3512…
10-26 19:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xa59248…
10-26 19:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x8e31c0…
10-26 19:51:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0x58591c…
10-26 19:50:08	CD Santa Clara vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	52	29¢	$15	0xcdee02…
10-26 19:48:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x64ec7b…
10-26 19:33:03	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x7d4063…
10-26 19:31:48	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xd0be02…
10-26 15:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8e2278…
10-26 14:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3dfb6a…
10-26 14:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xaccf61…
10-26 02:48:20	Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xfa02f1…
10-25 23:27:17	CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	92	43¢	$40	0x4f25a5…
10-25 23:26:45	Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x63f0ba…
10-25 23:25:39	Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x85a799…
10-25 23:20:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	220	88¢	$193	0xef4577…
10-23 11:51:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	220	23¢	$50	0x02a853…
10-23 11:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xb76649…
10-22 18:31:53	Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	BUY	291	7¢	$20	0xef697d…
10-22 18:31:30	Will CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x76db0b…
09-19 22:11:29	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xd9f8ed…
09-19 22:11:18	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-19 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x4bcb3c…
09-19 22:02:39	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-19 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xc9e6f5…
09-18 20:23:18	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x464a40…
09-18 20:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x101c8d…
09-18 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x7dbd02…
09-18 18:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xafc92a…
09-18 18:41:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xd20f3a…
09-18 14:27:49	XRP Up or Down - September 18, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xccc32b…
09-18 13:40:38	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	31	93¢	$29	0x575676…
09-18 13:35:05	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x60132b…
09-18 13:31:42	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	31	49¢	$15	0x499a84…
09-18 13:31:39	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x2490cb…
09-18 13:17:27	Hyperliquid Up or Down - September 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x697204…
09-18 13:12:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	87	31¢	$27	0xf51145…
09-18 12:53:54	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	61	25¢	$15	0x6da291…
09-18 12:51:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x7b8285…
09-18 12:51:11	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xe9c9a1…
09-18 12:46:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x94bbe1…
09-18 12:46:48	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x8a111a…
09-18 11:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x565780…
09-18 11:18:34	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	85	61¢	$52	0x4b144f…
09-18 11:16:48	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	28	59¢	$17	0xcf5991…
09-18 11:07:36	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	38	65¢	$25	0xae109d…
09-18 11:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x26c507…
09-18 10:44:48	Solana Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	152	10¢	$15	0xf459fa…
09-18 10:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	277	7¢	$20	0xd9475c…
09-18 05:22:37	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-18 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	26	42¢	$11	0xbf33c2…
09-18 05:22:06	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-18 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xbdb204…
09-18 05:08:37	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-18 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	157	12¢	$19	0x811ff3…
09-18 04:47:16	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x0455b3…
09-18 00:51:57	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0x8077e7…
09-18 00:51:49	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0x851c00…
09-18 00:51:36	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0xf24416…
09-18 00:51:31	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 8pm et	Up	SELL	22	76¢	$16	0x3db495…
09-18 00:23:07	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 8pm et	Up	BUY	87	35¢	$30	0xb63aa0…
09-18 00:14:57	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x7c1a61…
09-18 00:14:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0xffde2c…
09-18 00:14:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	21	68¢	$14	0x129e4e…
09-18 00:13:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	SELL	27	64¢	$18	0x054f85…
09-18 00:12:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0xb5f0be…
09-18 00:12:09	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0x4bf60d…
09-18 00:11:45	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 7pm et	Down	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0x8317d9…
09-18 00:04:33	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xcff3cc…
09-17 23:58:33	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xa16bda…
09-17 23:29:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x7baf14…
09-17 23:18:09	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 7pm et	Down	BUY	58	36¢	$21	0xeb9b79…
09-17 23:00:40	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 6pm et	Up	SELL	63	99¢	$63	0x7caa92…
09-17 22:23:19	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	63	19¢	$12	0xe34e74…
09-17 22:14:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc2da19…
09-17 22:03:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x65a72c…
09-17 22:01:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xec218c…
09-17 21:58:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	118	1¢	$1	0x92ff9e…
09-17 21:47:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:45 UTC	Up	BUY	90	29¢	$26	0x3e622d…
09-17 21:44:30	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7dc602…
09-17 21:32:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0xf0b752…
09-17 21:22:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x313a5a…
09-17 21:16:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xe0c1e3…
09-17 19:32:37	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0xe77755…
09-17 19:32:24	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	117	9¢	$10	0xe55270…
09-17 19:08:15	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	161	9¢	$14	0xa06560…
09-17 19:02:42	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0x65ea3d…
09-17 18:47:52	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0x6cd657…
09-17 18:46:36	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	122	16¢	$20	0x775e06…
09-17 18:18:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x337ee4…
09-17 14:59:45	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0x12eafc…
09-17 14:58:36	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	83	36¢	$30	0x4613f1…
09-17 14:58:10	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC	Down	BUY	79	11¢	$9	0xdf5468…
09-17 11:59:33	SOL Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-17 08:00 UTC	Up	SELL	59	82¢	$48	0x54a499…